Featured DOE findings on TCO: ICE, HEV's, PHEV's, & BEV's

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by fotomoto, Aug 14, 2021.

  1. fotomoto

    fotomoto Senior Member

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    Spoiler: HEV's show lowest TCO

    Latest DOE study conducted by Argonne Labs: https://publications.anl.gov/anlpubs/2021/05/167399.pdf

    Summation (bold mine): "Comparing across powertrains, the HEV is the vehicle powertrain with the lowest cost of ownership over a 15-year span, at 44.6¢/mile. The ICE-SI, ICE-CI, FCEV, and PHEV50 all have costs around 48¢/mile. The BEV300 has the highest cost, at 51.8¢/mile, though the shorter-range BEV200 (not pictured) has a cost of 45.3¢/mile. The comparatively high costs for BEV300 come from assumed battery costs of $170/kWh in 2025 in the Autonomie model (Islam et al. 2020), though BEV would reach cost parity with HEV at a cost of $102/kWh. For all powertrains, the vehicle cost is the single most expensive cost over the 15-year analysis window. Maintenance and repair taken together is the second most expensive for all powertrain types except FCEV. For petroleum-fueled vehicles, this is followed by fuel, then insurance. For electric-fueled vehicles (both BEV and PHEV) and hybrids, reduced fuel costs lead to higher insurance costs than fuel costs."

    They looked at numerous factors in ownership including: "For internal combustion engine vehicles we consider replacement of the combustion engine; for HEV we consider replacement of the high-voltage battery and the integrated starter generator; for BEV and PHEV we consider replacement of the high-voltage battery; for FCEV we consider replacement of the fuel cell stack."

    My personal take-away: big batteries are expensive and lower costs may not come as quickly as I previously thought (the world has changed drastically over the last few years).
     
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  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    too many variables to use as a personal guide to car purchase if tco is important to you (which it isn't to most car buyers)
     
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  3. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    Wouldn't surprise me if plenty of car buyers are kind of trying to think of TCO but just not finding it easy to do.
     
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  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    it's not easy, that's for sure, and generalizations probably don't help much.
     
  5. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    This is an interesting assumption.
    On the battery level I believe a number of companies are under $170/kWh today.
     
  6. dbstoo

    dbstoo Active Member

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    It's nice to see the Hybrids and PHEVs getting some positive press. :)

    Many people try to use TCO when buying a car. While my family does not make the TCO the only factor, it is used as a contributing factor. For instance, the expense of maintenance and cosy to replace small parts were instrumental in the decision to NOT purchase a replacement Jaguar when dad was no longer able to climb into his XKE. The low cost of buying and owning/operating a Prius led my son to buy a gen 4 for his commute.

    They are not talking cost to manufacture. They are talking of cost to buy retail or to replace. I read an article yesterday that quoted over 13,000 for a Tesla battery replaced outside of warranty. They even included a copy of the invoice.**

    I imagine that even though the cost of the battery itself may drop, the introduction of batteries built into structural members of the car will result in increased costs to remove, repair and replace. One of the things that bring down battery cost is mass production and interchangeability so that the costs of tooling are spread over as many models as possible. Building battery packs that can only fit in one place on one model of car will increase the costs to manufacture. I can foresee a fender bender wiping out not just a fender but also the custom battery that was molded to shape under it.

    ** How much does a Tesla Model 3 Battery Replacement Cost? | Current Automotive
     
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  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Since I buy and payoff my rides, the ‘capital cost’ is a onetime expense. In contrast, the operation costs are paid year after year and mile after mile. I typically drive just under 20,000 miles per year. Operating cost is very important to me.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  8. dbstoo

    dbstoo Active Member

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    Even if you "buy and payoff" your cars, there is still the net cost of of the car when you sell it or send it to the junk yard. As such, the value of the car is not a "one time" issue. It would be foolish to think that the cost of daily operation is the only factor.

    But it's not unusual to find people using that mindset. The kid who delivers pizzas in his fancy little BMW is quite happy that he's getting $5 per pizza delivery. After all, it only costs him 1/3 gallon of gas to make the the 10 mile round trip from one side of town to the other. He does not associate the need for frequent brake jobs nor the depreciation when he sells a 3 year old car with 70K miles.

    The same applies to people who commute from the suburbs to work low paying jobs in the urban area. A 50 mile commute gets you rent that's 1/2 of big city prices for less than 300$ a month in gas. The cost of maintenance and depreciation for 26,000 miles a year is seldom associated with the rent savings, so it looks good on the surface.
     
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  9. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Tesla's lead in batteries will last through decade while GM closes in
    The lithium iron phosphate batteries that tesla uses in its MIC model 3 standard + are rumored to be around $100/kwh. They will move American production of the standard+ and an even cheaper car to this battery type. CATL has factories being built that will lower this to under $100/kwh in 2023 when made in china. US battery pack manufacturing is highly automated, I would not assume that American batteries would cost much more than chinese made ones in 2025.

    This is what they used -
    $185/kwh probably is a good number for average manufacturers paid in 2020 not sorted by volume. But I would assume that if tesla is paying less than $100/kwh in 2025 others will drop much faster than $150/kwh by then or not be selling any volume. VW group is now investing and will need to drop it much more by then. Poor assumption by Argone labs, but they do spell out that others have estimated much lower costs.
     
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  10. fotomoto

    fotomoto Senior Member

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    The new US plan to rival China's dominance in rare earth metals

    "In 2019, China was responsible for 80% of rare earths imports, according to the U.S. Geological Survey,"

    "While China is dominant now, in the decades before the 1980s it was the U.S. that held a majority stake in this metals market. That changed as production growth abroad and mounting environmental pressures at home shifted production overseas and also offered cheaper labor costs. According to one 2018 report from the Department of Defense, China “strategically flooded the global market” with rare earths at cheaper prices to drive out and deter current and future competitors. "

    "To meet rare earths demand without global supply chains, though, would require the U.S. to reach “massive levels of production,” and build out an extraction and production chain that could take up to a decade, Nakano said. The best course, for now, is to work with allies, such as the European Union, to reduce reliance on dominant players like China.

    “Once you achieve that, let’s say ten, twenty years from now, then everyone can start looking at making a truly domestic supply chain,” she said."
     
  11. PriusCamper

    PriusCamper Senior Member

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    That's precisely what's missing from this analysis as the cost per mile data is greatly defined by miles driven... I suspect if you're a regional sales rep in a rural part of the country and you can put 100K miles on a car in less than two years your cost per mile is going to be way different than if you only drive 20K miles per year. How does the report account for these discrepancies?
     
  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    what if i can buy a 34k prime for 20k, does that affect the tco? or if i pay 5k more than msrp for a rav4 prime?
     
  13. PriusCamper

    PriusCamper Senior Member

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    Yea... That basically totally blows up their calculations... Whoever was the boss of this report sucks at their job. They could of done this in a way that allows for individuals to calculate their best option by inputting their own numbers. It of been way more useful info had they done this.
     
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  14. dbstoo

    dbstoo Active Member

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    In any analysis you start by determining what the outliers are and remove them from the data. The straw man presented of 100K miles a year is obviously abnormal. Obviously the other extreme would be a person who buys a $75,000 car who drives it once a month to the barber 3 blocks up the street. There is a stated assumption for miles per year in the report. The common figure that I recall seeing is around 15,000 miles a year.

    Sure, you can buy a $34,00 Prime for $20,000. Incentives should always be considered in TCO. Isn't that the way that you do it? The TCO for my first car was $100 purchase + $75 for 4 tires, and about $2076 for gas to drive 29200 miles. Junkyard battery was $10. License for two years was about $30. Insurance was 75 a year. It went through 3 sets of plugs and 3 sets of brake shoes after repairing leaking wheel cylinders multiple times. Oil was consumed at the rate of 1 quart for every 20 gallons of gas. My girlfriend's mom gave me a car worth $5000 in exchange for mine with the requirement that I take my car to the junk yard. Junk yard gave me $50. TCO was less than nothing since I made a nice profit.

    And that's where I learned about the total cost of ownership. :)
     
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  15. dbstoo

    dbstoo Active Member

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    You must be kidding. Don't they teach you kids to do any analysis anymore? This statement reminds me of people who vote against a city's zoning laws because the law does nothing to prevent spouse abuse. That's not what the law is about.

    In this case, providing a way to add up your personal expenses is not what the report was for. Their objective was to identify sub classes of autos and determine the AVERAGE TCO within each sub group. This was not for the average driver. It's the average of the TCO.
     
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    My woman drove her BMW i3-REx to Nashville only to find:
    • Athens Electrify America - totally failed to give her a fast DC charge. She called me 'hot' (climate) and pissed. I told her 'Electrify America' has a reputation for being unreliable.
    • Blink in Nashville - she did not have a Blink account or App and was totally pissed she could not get a charge. I told her 'Try their 1-800 number. Blink in Tennessee tends to work work but can be obstinate. Worse, they are cost more than ChargePoint.'
    I love my woman but hate the poor quality charging options available to her away from me. But at least she can run the two-cylinder, modified, 640 cc, motorcycle engine to not get stuck. ...

    Bob Wilson
     
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  17. dbstoo

    dbstoo Active Member

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    What thread were you trying to put that in? It does not seem to have anything to do with Total Cost of Ownership. It does point out why one might walk away from one design in favor of another.
     
  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    there's a mental and emotional cost that should be figured in :p
     
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  19. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Sand Pounder

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    The acronym storm makes my head hurt.
     
  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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