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Edmunds Smackdown #2 and #4

Discussion in 'Gen 3 Prius Main Forum' started by bwilson4web, Jun 15, 2012.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Recently, a former Prius owner visited another forum to share his joy with a new Volt. Normally this is OK as long we're dealing with facts and data. But we noticed a lot of 'gaps in the data' and one of them was an engineering-based, mileage comparison of the Prius and Volt. One respected set of reviews has been the Edmunds "Fuel Smackdown."

    In this annual report, usually in September, Edmunds drive five cars for three days over:
    1. Back Roads to Las Vegas
    2. Las Vegas streets
    3. Interstate back from Las Vegas
    It turns out "Smackdown 2" has the ZVW30 Prius and "Smackdown 4" has the Chevy Volt and both have a Jetta TDI suggesting these tables:

    Column 1
    0 [th]smackdown #2[/th][th]MPG #2[/th][th]MPG #4[/th][th]smackdown #4[/th][tr][td]2009 VW Jetta TDI[/td][td]41.2[/td][td]39.5[/td][td]2011 Jetta TDI[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010 Prius[/td][td]47.2[/td][td]37.8[/td][td]2011 Volt[/td][/tr]
    Back roads, country highway.

    Column 1
    0 [th]smackdown #2[/th][th]MPG #2[/th][th]MPG #4[/th][th]smackdown #4[/th][tr][td]2009 VW Jetta TDI[/td][td]31.6[/td][td]29.8[/td][td]2011 Jetta TDI[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010 Prius[/td][td]48.7[/td][td]44.8[/td][td]2011 Volt[/td][/tr]
    Las Vegas city driving.

    Column 1
    0 [th]smackdown #2[/th][th]MPG #2[/th][th]MPG #4[/th][th]smackdown #4[/th][tr][td]2009 VW Jetta TDI[/td][td]40.6[/td][td]40.4[/td][td]2011 Jetta TDI[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010 Prius[/td][td]47.4[/td][td]45.2[/td][td]2011 Volt[/td][/tr]
    Interstate.

    Observations
    • The larger displacement 2011 Jetta has lost MPG
    • Jetta is hurt in City driving, does OK in either Highway
    • Volt is hurt in Country Highway driving, does OK in City and Interstate
    • Prius is at the top, both Highway routes and City
    Bob Wilson
     
  2. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    Thanks, Bob!
     
  3. krazypriuslady

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    Plus diesel gas costs about the same as premium 93 gas. So we benefit there too, by using 87. The Jetta tdi was one of the cars I considered before buying the Prius
     
  4. cwerdna

    cwerdna Senior Member

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    Those Volt figures seem to include having their battery charged. Their CS mileage (once the battery was depleted for EV only operation) was much lower.
     
  5. yeldogt

    yeldogt Active Member

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    I'm surprised the Jetta is so low in the city and they did not get above 50mpg on the mixed Prius driving. I bought our Prius as a test to add to the mix and see how everybody liked it -- I also looked at the Volt and the TDI. The Prius has worked out very well -- both the Volt and the TDI are better at being a "car" then the Prius -- but they don't have the universal MPG. If I commuted on a highway or took long trips at high speeds often -- I would not want the Prius as my only car and the Volt is not really designed to excel in that environment. That is the appeal of the TDI -- and much of the higher cost of the vehicle is recouped in resale .... but without the often used highway component the TDI looses its edge. I would like to get a Volt and maybe if the 10k rebate goes into effect next year I will ..... The Volt would make the perfect "office" car .........going out each day for shorter runs and then used on the weekend for trips that would extend just past the battery range. For the few extend highway trips I take each year I use something else.
     
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Correct:
    The Edmunds article includes the Volt miles traveled in EV mode so all three legs were a mix of gas and electric. One takeaway is how one's specific, daily mileage really dictates the results:
    • Urban - Volt works just fine
    • Suburban - results can be mixed (aka., Washington DC and other large metroplex)
    • Rural - no way
    Not to make anyone's head explode, we're seeing a practical limit of about 50 MPG regardless of technology for five seat vehicles. Unless there is a dramatic improvement in material science, stronger-lighter yet affordable, our 2,500-3,500 lb vehicles are going to run about 50 MPG in ordinary service. Sure, we can tweak low hanging fruit but I just don't see any game changers or 'magic bullets.'

    Bob Wilson
     
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  7. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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  8. Rebound

    Rebound Senior Member

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    An average person drives about 12,000 miles a year, or 32 miles per day. That's way within the EV range of the Volt.

    Their idea of a "City Driving Test" is driving 180 miles. But nobody does that; most suburbanites and city dwellers (most people overall) drive far under 100 miles, which is where the plug-ins shine. Few people regularly drive from LA to Vegas.

    Considering that these new vehicles are designed for the lives most Americans lead, the tests should have been designed to match them.
     
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  9. Lordkifar

    Lordkifar Junior Member

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    Same here actually but the finish on the Jetta was terrible....I checked a few of them and seriously was not impressed with the overly plasticky look and finishing. Glad I went for the prius!!
     
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    This is not a trivial problem:
    Years ago, I took a long look at the two EPA standards and EU tests. We've also seen ad hoc "tests" ranging from Top Gear, Car and Driver, Green Human, and assorted 'mileage rallies.' What I noticed were:
    • None of them cover all cases.
    • All of them do a terrible job of documenting their limitations.
    • Many attempt to 'sand bag' the tests/contest.
    In defense of the Edmunds City, it looks like a taxi or delivery service profile ... or kids cruising for a date. So my thinking is their test is just another data point in a wide spectrum of potential tests.

    The only reason I posted these two is the use of the Jetta TDI, similar models, that were common to both smackdowns and the inclusion of the Volt and ZVW30 Prius. Had the Jetta not been in both tests, there would be no 'standard model' to support a credible Volt vs Prius comparison.

    Bob Wilson
     
  11. Rebound

    Rebound Senior Member

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    I disagree with you. This isn't as bad as Top Gear stupidly running a Prius around a test track at 115 MPH, but it still isn't a very intelligent test. I respect the fact that it's difficult to instrument a repeatable start/stop test, but the fact of the matter is that hundreds of Volt owners are getting 200-500 MPG (gas), and they drive like average people drive.

    I'm not an automotive expert. I don't operate a website that proclaims that I'm am automobile expert. Yet I know that if I plug in a Volt overnight and drive it ordinarily, I'll likely go 2,000 miles or more before I need a fill up. Shouldn't Edmunds, the automotive experts, know this?
     
  12. revhigh

    revhigh MPG Enthusiast

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    That would be almost ALL of them .... right ???? LOL ... :D


    REV
     
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  13. GCPExit12

    GCPExit12 Member

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    The test is not perfect but at least Edmunds made an attempt at an object contest without completely embarrassing any of the contestants.

    It's difficult to agree on one set of conditions to compare TDI to Volt to Prius because people who buy the three cars drive very differently.

    What if the test were 30 miles per day, for 5 days, on city streets, Volt would have us beat on MPG by a margin of infinity to 45 because it would never have to use the gas engine. If the test were low speed cruise 20MPH-40MPH all the way from San Francisco to New York City with drivers rotating 24 hours a day and stopping only for gas, the Prius would obviously win by a wide margin. Many of the newer conventional gasoline cars could probably beat Volt on such a trial.

    Every car has advantages and disadvantages, Edmunds's job is to objectively, and politely, point out the pros and cons of the cars they review. Because comparisons like these can never satisfy all the contestants involved, they have to tweak the tests to produce results that show a difference, but not too much. I personally think they should throw the plug-in Prius in the ring and make the test short 10 miles trips, with about 3 hrs in between to charge, 24 hours a day.
     
  14. Rebound

    Rebound Senior Member

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    I absolutely disagree. Nobody drives a car continually at 20-40MPH from coast-to-coast, but most people do drive about 30 miles per day.

    Certainly most car owners go on road trips, but for most people, that's once every month or two. The rest of the time, it's 30 miles a day.

    Edmunds' MPG test, which tests road trip mileage and urban package delivery performance doesn't measure what most people do most of the time.

    Volt and Prius get very high mileage doing what real people actually do. The results Edmunds published are incomplete and reflect either laziness, stupidity or a desire to deprive their readers of the truth. Edmunds claim in their article is, "What sort of mpg numbers can you expect in the real world?" Edmunds fails to deliver what they claim, unless your real world is package delivery and road trips.

    Jay Leno reported that he drove over 11,000 miles on his Volt, on the tank of gas that came with the vehicle! That does not even remotely jibe with Edmunds' not-so-real-world test.
     
  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    The problem is this proposed test is another 'special pleadings.' This is why I've never been a fan of any of these mileage tests. Instead, I prefer and made my own "mph vs MPG" chart:
    [​IMG]
    With this empirical data graphed, I can predict my NHW11 mileage after the 5 minute warm-up. I also have some NHW20, highway data.

    Later, I developed a model based chart using the vehicle drag formula:
    [​IMG]
    Here you see it annotated with 'real life' data points. Notice the cluster of "black dots" that came from a different Prius model, the NHW20. But within the NHW11 data points, we get fairly close agreement except for a curious blip at 65-70 mph where the car appears to work 'too good.' It turns out that aerodynamic drag is not always a smooth function ... there can be 'sweet spots.' Furthermore, warm weather, low 80s, improves performance.

    Sorry but that is only in your "most car owners" world and does not come even close to life in Huntsville AL working at the Marshall Space Flight Center:
    • 78 miles (one way) - Gina S. my coworker from Russelleville AL
    • +36 miles (one way) - Jeff C. my coworker from South of Arab AL
    • 36 miles (one way) - Wayne B. my coworker from Arab AL
    • 51 miles (one way) - Kathleen G. my coworker from near Lynchburg TN
    • 30 miles (one way) - Scotty H. my coworker from Owens Cross Roads AL
    • 33 miles (one way) - Bobby C. my coworker from Priceville AL
    • 20 miles (one way) - Bob W. (me)
    My sampling of co-workers shows the majority of our people drive much further than 30 miles a day. Heck, you have to drive 3-6 miles from any of the five access gates at Marshall Space Flight Center just to reach the buildings. But even when we lived in Washington DC, it was 23 mile, one way, commute to GSFC. What I'm trying to get through is "most car owners" is an exceptionally weak claim that totally discounts, ignores, anyone on the far-side of "most".

    Let's try a different, simpler analysis. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration uses 15,000 miles per year as their average number of miles per year:
    15000 / (52*6) = 48 miles per day ... that is just for the average car​

    Over half are driving more miles per year. In my case, 20,000 miles per year:
    • 20000 / (52 *6) = 64 miles per day ...
    Notice, I've assumed we all respect the Sabbath and on that seventh day, we all walk to our house of worship and spend the rest of the day in meditation of Gods words and prayer for our sins. Of course the wicked don't but even as they drive seven days a week, they still burn more than "30 miles a day." But the righteous always respect the Sabbath just as Volt owners always plug-in at night.

    If we assume a Gaussian distribution of miles, we can actually calculate the "30 miles per day" drivers as a function of the peak. We can then calculate the percent of driving public that meet the "30 miles per day" limitation versus those who don't:
    [​IMG]

    So let me suggest that if you want to add to our Volt understanding, publish two charts:
    • kwHr vs mph
    • MPG vs mph
    We'll then have something useful that can actually be used for planning. We can use those metrics and our individual driving situations to determine if a Volt even has a chance of being a better solution than our Prius. Fortunately, some already has:

    Cost per Mile Comparison: 2012 Volt vs. 2013 Prius Plug-in
    [​IMG]

    What always pissed me off about the faux 'payback' analysis is they always assumed one 'miles per year' without acknowledging that at least half of the population drove further. These are the people who get great payback from their Prius, early and sustained. We are not 'most car owners' and we will let you know.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  16. Rebound

    Rebound Senior Member

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    You drive about 64 miles per day.
    AND, if we look right at that itty-bitty tip of the long-distance crossover arrow, you see it points to exactly...
    64 Miles! AHA!!!!
    Obviously, they designed the car for you.

    And, I might add, if the Marshall Space Center were so forward-thinking as to install electric vehicle chargers, then each and every one of your co-workers would also enjoy the uber-high mileage benefits of their Chevrolet Volts, and many, including yourself, would consume virtually no gasoline at all.
     
  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Electricity is not free and the chart points to the cost per mile incorporating both electric and fuel costs comparing a Plug-In Prius and a Volt. That chart says a charger at work for someone driving 64 miles per day makes neutral, economic sense and I live closer to Marshall than my co-workers. They live much further so they are well to the right of that threshold. Since the Volt has no economic advantage over the Plug-In prius for us, let's examine utility.

    On one side is the 5-seat, Plug-In Prius, a full-size car versus the 4-seat, compact size Volt.

    Failing to find an economic advantage, we really need more details about the Volt. Like I said before, we need two Volt charts:
    • kwHr vs mph
    • MPG vs mph
    Then any buyer can using a GPS log, actually make a sound economic decision.

    Bob Wilson
     
  18. yeldogt

    yeldogt Active Member

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    I would like to know the MPG of the Volt over various roads -- after the vehicle has exhausted the battery. I drove the Volt 4 times once for about 20 miles -- but never when the battery was exhausted ..... but strangely the engine did go on ........ so I'm not sure what was going on ........ and naturally no one at the dealership was any help.

    The Volt is a very interesting vehicle and the 35 mph range works most of the time -- except for weekend homes. I see many volts in the city - but that range makes many think about the practicality of the vehicle. WIth the premium paid upfront -- for most people the numbers never work out as far as saving anything
     
  19. Rebound

    Rebound Senior Member

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    I believe you made a mistake. The 64 mile figure assumes one charge (otherwise, it would never make sense to charge the car).

    If your commute is 50 miles each way, you're right that the 100 mile crossover is non-optimal. BUT if you can charge at work, then it's two 50 mile trips, and Volt has the advantage (so says the guy making the $500/month Prius Plug-in payments).
     
  20. GCPExit12

    GCPExit12 Member

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    No car makes economic sense. If driving a Prius is about making economic sense, we should all move on over to ElantraChat, it's a $12,000 car that gets 40MPG without the fancy hybrid shenanigans. According to your fuelly badge, you're only getting 63.6MPG with your plug-in. In economic sense terms, why aren't you driving a regular prius like Bob the Rocket Scientist? He's getting 50.0MPG in cars that costs thousands less.

    Fact is that there are people to whom the Volt is the ideal car and there are people to whom the Prius is the ideal car. Everyone has their own "most car drivers" world so the best we can do is agree to disagree. Who knows? There's probably a thread in the Volt forums with guys making all sorts of graphics to show why the Volt is a superior car.
     
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