Electric Cars Sold Out!?!?

Well off track but just correcting misinformation.

Hmm so you are looking at worldwide sales starting in 2000, i.e. for years 4-6 of the prius then want to include its increase in year 7 (year 4 in us).. (worldwide sales started in 1997). I have not comparable data, and won't for another 3-5 years. Also note the Japan market well known to be extremely insular, no US car sells well there after the conversions and taxes.

The HOV access was a major issue for prius in 2001/2002 (e.g. see Toyota Prius (First Generation) - Car Forums - Edmunds) whereit was allowed in HOV in 7 states
Arizona, California, Georgia, Hawaii, Maryland, Virginia and Utah
Cali did not grant it HOV status in 2001, but was added in 2002 see: http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/11000/11800/11843/HOVBook2.pdf

I've seen zero data supporting various claims of fleet sales having any real impact. In the volt's best selling month (Sept 2012) they sold 2851, of which 100 were sold to government or fleets, or about a 3.5% fleet take rate. All the months I've seen reports of 3-6%.. not very high. The fleet numbers might have been higher but the fabled GE purchase of massive numbers bu 2015 has been and redirected GE cuts back from previous committment to e-REVs and EVs



More stories about the sell out continue to appear, e.g.
Southern California Honda Dealerships Sell Out of Fit EV Following Price Cut | PluginCars.com

Where its stated waiting lists are up to 50 people deep. I think its not just the price, its the unlimited milage as some of these Cali drivers will put on 25-35K miles a year commuting. While there have been many EV/PHEV leases in the 200-$300 a month range, but they came with only 10K or 12K miles per year. One of my students just started in an internship in the bay area and one of his co-workers is on a FitEV wait-list for the price + unlimited miles -- the co-worker commutes 65 miles each way to/from work (where they have 12 EV chargers and planning to add at least a dozen more).

So maybe the trick is not as much the price but the milage. Since an EV motor is likely good for 300K miles or more maybe we need new ways of evaluating/selling them and unlimited milage leases might be a new more disruptive business model.

 

It's not just the mileage with the Fit EV lease, but also the collision coverage and free charger.

 

It is an interesting comparison. However...the first US Prius was purchased pretty much, only for the mpg not the tech. There was no GPS, for example. Actually, there was not even cruise control for the first year or more. There was no smart key entry or push button start. It wasn't until 2003 (MY 2004) that the Prius came with lots of tech features. That was 3 years after launch...actually a couple of months less than 3 years.

Mike

 

I'm not sure where it says what in that link. But it is false. I had a 2001 Prius in October 2000 and got on the waiting list for the 2004 (for spouse) before they came out...in the middle of 2003. Neither had HOV stickers when purchased. It was ~2 years after the 2004 came out that they started the yellow sticker program for HOV lanes.

Here this link says the 6 year program expired in 2011...thus it started in 2005.

Hybrids: Hybrid stickers in California for carpool lanes set to expire - Los Angeles Times


Mike