Electric Vehicle Depreciation/Resell Values

Discussion in 'Gen 1 Prius Plug-in 2012-2015' started by -1-, Dec 26, 2013.

  1. -1-

    -1- Don

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    :)Article from USAToday - 122613

    Electric cars’ value dims
    Analysis finds depreciation hits vehicles harder
    Chris Woodyard

    @chriswoodyard USA TODAY
    Plug-in electric cars may be cutting-edge technology, but an analysis suggests that most will depreciate more dramatically over five years than their conventional counterparts.

    Some of the biggest value gaps involve 2014 models powered only by batteries, entirely without gas engines, according to the analysis performed by Kelley Blue Book at the request of USA TODAY. Examples:

    •Chevrolet Spark EV. The little electric is projected to be worth 28% of its $28,305 list price in five years, while a comparable conventional version of the same car will retain 40% of its value.

    •Ford Focus Electric. The compact will be worth 20% of its initial $35,995 list price, while a well-outfitted conventional Focus Titanium with an automatic transmission will still command 36%.

    •Nissan Leaf. Even the bestselling pure electric car is projected to have a residual value of 15% for the 2013 model. A similar Nissan Sentra SL compact would retain 36%.

    “Pure electrics have been slow to catch on in the resale market,” says Eric Ibara, director of residual consulting for Kelley Blue Book. Customers “have been willing to buy a new one, not a used electric vehicle.”

    Three electric cars — Leaf, Fiat 500e and Smart Fortwo electric — topped the list of models projected by KBB to have the highest depreciation among all cars and trucks for the 2014 model year.

    Tackling concerns about depreciation, Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk announced in May that he would personally back the resale value of its Model S all-electric sedan for buyers who use Tesla’s finance program. Tesla said that under the deal, resale value will be higher than BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Lexus or Jaguar.

    There are mitigating factors. Many buyers are given sales incentives packages and don’t pay anywhere near list price. Some of the biggest discounts come on leases. And many electric cars qualify for a federal tax credit of up to $7,500, plus state or local incentives. Big discounts on new cars hurt residual values.

    Plug-in hybrid cars, those with backup gas engines, fair better, KBB reports. For instance, Porsche’s new Panamera E-Hybrid has a predicted resale value of 37%, compared with 41% for the conventional model. Toyota’s Plug-In Prius has a resale of 35%, only 2 percentage points less than for the conventional version.

    Nissan officials note the electric car, or EV, revolution is still in its infancy. The market for used electric cars is yet to develop.

    “We expect to see a similar adoption curve for used EVs as we have for new EVs, and we are just now reaching the point where there are used EVs on the market,” says Erik Gottfried, director of marketing for Nissan Leaf. “EVs are one of the most active and fast-moving segments of the automotive market.”
    [​IMG]
    Click here for today's e-Newspaper.

    :) Prius Plug In doesn't do too badly. Just 2% less than Prius Hybrid version. Leaf takes a huge hit.
     
  2. crewdog

    crewdog Acting Ensign Prius Prime

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    I'd like to see what happens when gasoline prices are reflected in this survey; extremely high mpg does hold a value in the market.

    I can speak from the experience of selling my 2006 Gen II Prius with 111k miles for 10k, was still getting about 50 mpg average.

    If gas prices go up, the resale value will increase as well I would think.
     
  3. Mike500

    Mike500 Senior Member

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    The technology is quickly improving.

    EV depreciation cam be more validly correlated to the depreciation of PC's, cell phones and TV's.

    Electrics will depreciate more quickly as the technology is quickly improved with new models that become less and less expensive with more and better features.


    In my opinion, the chart posted by the OP seems to be higher than reality, when the 5 pear period becomes reality.
     
  4. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Hmmmm....
    Lots of moving parts here.
    I noticed that they used the "now you see it...now you don't" maneuver with the list prices, because they're just that.
    List prices.
    Most EVs come with at least federal kickbacks that aren't reflected in their math.
    You also have to remember that these are "projected" values.
    Who is doing the projecting, and what are their motives?
    There is passion in the EV community to bend the numbers one way, and there are legitimate concerns about the EV technology that tend to pull them in another direction.

    EV's are also just now starting to be available for the 99-percenters, which means that there are still developmental costs that are winding their way through the system.

    There are too many moving parts in this picture to label EV's as either a money sink or a money maker.
    I think that the folks at USAT are using the EV community's passion to sell papers.
    Since the latter tends to be a rather thin-skinned bunch?
    Tabloid headlines like:
    Electric cars’ value dims
    Will generate a lot of clicks on their sites.

    Don't fall for it. :)
    I'm not a big fan of the EV community's "Scrappy-Do" attitude, but the technology does deserves a fair shake.


    MY New Year's prediction?
    EV's have a brighter future than print media. ;)
     
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  5. Mike500

    Mike500 Senior Member

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    Just look at the history of the HDTV rollout. 5 years, ago, a 57 inch Panasonic plasma TV sold for over $9,000.

    Now, you can walk into any store and get a more energy efficient 57 incher with LED's for $600-$700.

    And, the 5 year old 90 pound Panasonic might ne worth about $200 USED, at best.


    Early adopters always pay through the nose.


    Toyota has been more successful with the Prius model.
     
  6. Astolat

    Astolat Member

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    Resale values are bound to reflect the fact that a PiP with a knackered traction battery is an overweight liftback, whereas a Leaf with a knackered battery isn't going anywhere until it's replaced. The reality of resale values will presumably depend on how well the batteries actually stand up.
     
  7. markabele

    markabele owner of PiP, then Leaf, then Model 3

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    I understand how/why people compared EV's to consumer electronics but there are still some very big differences. Just because a phone or TV is eclipsed the second it comes out doesn't mean that is the case with EV's. Vehicles take substantially longer for R&D, then testing, then more R&D, then more testing...you get the idea. Not to mention that when you throw safety regulation in there that it slows the whole process down even more. Also add in the fact that EV's can't be made at Foxconn or similar places that can spit out tons of product at ridiculously low cost.
     
  8. kabin

    kabin Member

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    It's a bummer. Aside from the fuel savings, it's the worse of all worlds- paying more initially and getting less in the end.


    Depreciation hits electric cars hard
     
  9. Mike500

    Mike500 Senior Member

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    They said the same thing about solar cell panels, furniture and wind power components.


    Toyota has protected and nurtured the Prius.

    They stand by their long track record, and have even given out of warranty discounts to customers to fix their cars.


    They really understand the market and the "customer's experience."
     
  10. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

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    Yes, these numbers are misleading for most people even if you ignore the savings from maintenance and fueling costs. For example, about 1/3 of hybrid, plugin hybrid, and EV cars are sold in California. CA has a $1,500 rebate for plugin hybrids and a $2,500 rebate for EVs. Along with a fully-usable $7,500 federal tax credit that is $10,000 off the cost of a large battery EV. Some states have even better credits or rebates.

    Look at the Spark EV. It's projected 5th year value is 28% of 28,305 or $7,925. The actual cost after credits is $18,305 so the adjusted residual for a CA owner is $7,925/$18,305 or 43% which better than the 41% residual of a non-plug Prius (according to the article). I think the non-plug Prius has a relatively strong 5 year residual value relative to the average car. Similar adjustment math for a Volt with a $7,500 federal credit would be $10,149/$25,995 or 39%. A Plugin Prius with a $2,500 federal credit would $10,780/$26,800 or 40%.

    The numbers in the original table are mostly skewed based on federal credit (battery size) and overall vehicle cost. An expensive car with a smaller battery credit will tend to show a better residual in their chart math. A less expensive car with a large battery shows a small residual. Even with that adjustment, the LEAF numbers are bad. They seem to be projecting a residual value of about $4,500 which is only about 22% after adjustment for CA credits and rebates.
     
  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i'm at a loss to even try speculation here. i can see concern about battery health and difficulties testing it for future performance for the used car buyer. even hybrids are more difficult to evaluate. i don't know how much more they depreciate than gassers. time will tell.
     
  12. ny_rob

    ny_rob Senior Member

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    And so far "they" have been proven correct.
    Even the newest, most modern/efficient (read expensive) panels are around 20% efficient.
    They're ridiculously expensive to buy and install, have a 20 year at best shelf life and require very specific roof orientations to even be able t use them.
     
  13. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Comes with the territory when the initial buyer gets rebates and the used buyers do not.
    Especially when the initial rebates can be 30% of the purchase price.
    The more accurate price depreciation would be to take the initial cost minus rebates the buyer gets, and compare that to the sale price.
     
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  14. Mike500

    Mike500 Senior Member

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    China will be making more ECU's, motors and batteries.

    Who thinks they won't?

    A few years back, I was going to replace the roof on my house due to hail damage. There was a government rebate on hail resistant shingles.

    The roofing suppliers, due to their greed, raised the price of the shingles, so there was effectively no rebate at all.

    I replace the roof with regular shingles.

    Government's well intended rebates were cancelled by greed.
     
  15. RBooker

    RBooker Member

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  16. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    If this is right, the PiP not only doesn't do too badly, it does great. After the Federal, State, and other incentives many of us have enjoyed, this means our resale value will be far above what the "conventional version" would resell for.

    Pure EVs will probably be subject to harder depreciation as better battery technologies emerge and as federal and state incentives wane.

    For most PHEVs, more than half the cost of the vehicle comes from conventional technologies.

    For the PHEV, the ICE, body, interior, tires, suspension, etc. are essentially the same and improve slowly over years. For consumer electronics (smartphones, laptops, flat screen TVs…), screens, processors, memory, and most of the components get drastically better over just a few years.

    So we are talking about different depreciation curves here. The depreciation of a PHEV can be expected to behave more like a conventional ICE vehicle than consumer electronics. For BEVs, their depreciation would be expected to lean quite a bit closer to consumer electronics.
     
  17. kabin

    kabin Member

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    And don't forget states are adding user taxes for EVs/Hybrids. Once the spigot opens the tax only increases.
     
  18. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    I think the article is probably off base because with $7500+ tax credits the EV's cannot hold original value.
    In Virginia we tax cars quite heavily each year based on actual NADA Blue Book value, so depreciation can be a positive factor. A 4-yr old Leaf might be great deal here.
     
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