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Electrical energy past and future

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, May 10, 2017.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    My graph of countries with below global average electricity supply:

    World Ecectricity countries below average.png
     
  2. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Do those maps factor in non-distributed electricity?
    Cheap cell phones has lead to developing countries to skip investing in phone land lines. People with a cell phone there may not have a home outlet to charge it, but just access to a generator in their village.
    'Off grid' electric sources become more attractive when the local grid has limitations or simply not there.
     
  3. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    That should very easily fit within the 0-50W span of the very lowest band.
     
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I thin such national scale statistics would more often miss local electricity action, than to include it.

    +++
    Bins 2014 population in bin

    300 to < avg 131,334,650
    250 to 300 421,673,692
    200 to 250 177,740,212
    150 to 200 188,482,425
    100 to 150 301,999,756
    50 to 100 1,822,555,139
    0 to 50 1,415,836,163

    Total here 4,459,622,037

    +++
    What I wanted to make of all that somewhat depressingly, is location of large areas which have little realistic hope of getting 'modern' levels of electricity supply any time soon. Perhaps India could pull it off, better than its 'classmates'.

    There are also areas near or above global mean, that would seem to have a much better shot.

    Also of course there are regions with much higher supplies, where we seem to discuss at great length details of what power 'mixes' ought to be. Not saying that topic is out of bounds, but low-watt countries remain.
     
  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    There is a lot of untapped hydroelectric in Amazon, Congo, and other African river basins. Relevant to several low-E countries. So we are obliged to turn attention towards new research on side effects:

    Hydroelectric dams may jeopardize the Amazon's future -- ScienceDaily

    It was pointed out recently on a nearby thread that low-E countries lack power distribution networks. Puts some barriers up for centralized power production by any means. That, plus Green Climate Fund will never (would never have) become 'all that', puts up more barriers.

    Low-E countries will stay that way, more or less, until somebody else says "we ought to change that".
     
  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Quite on topic here:

    The Breakthrough Institute - Our High-Energy Planet

    and link to 28-page report from 2014 for free download. It is not the only perspective in that it favors centralized (often water-consumptive) sources over distributed renewables. It is worth knowing about.

    I am apt to pay attention to any analysis focused on low-power countries, even if their favorites differ from mine. A bit less interested in what happens in 1000-watt (and higher) countries. It would be, I think, an act of global kindness for those to emit less CO2 while remaining all powery. But all those discussions cannot substitute for considering futures of low-power countries.
     
  8. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Yikes! untapped ecologically and economically viable large hydro is a myth. All the good stuff has been done. Definitely Amazon is all done, and I would ask anyone why develop more? Small hydro, sure, that can be done, but it won't provide much percentage power. As you point out the Amazon is likely over done, and brazil is too reliant on hydro power. Massive power shortages during the olympics which caused higher demand at a time where rainfall meant lower hydro. Brazil is rightly persueing a combination of natural gas and wind to expand energy, but its too slow for many. I'm not sure about the congo, but my guess is it is similar to the amazon. The jeopardize link you posted is right.

    I've got to agree with the authors, focusing on solar for poor countries is mismanaged funds that could be building things better for the country. Let me add, anything but coal, is probably good ;-) Sure in remote places that won't get grid power in decades, solar plus flex fuel generators make financial sense, but for places with larger populations, its much more expensive for reliability to push a lot of solar right now. They need some kind of reliability first, then add the solar.
     
  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Latrubesse et al. paper in Nature deals with Amazon headwaters, not all in Brazil. They discuss negative side effects of hydro there. Any ecologist would take that as a call to explore other local energy sources. See my shackles :)

    Central Africa is now low-E, and with much potential hydro. Don't know what would work best for them. With whatever Green Climate Funds are available, this looks like a very large low-E hole.

    Not all other low-E countries (see @61) have hydro to consider.

    I suppose that by 2050, many low-E countries may not be much improved. if as hoped it happens there later, I will miss it. Y'all youngsters ought to attend to that.
     
  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Howdy Grodd and welcome. I would have said all those same things. Have a look at

    | Nature
     
  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  12. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Above is actually in part a disagreement with earlier paper in PNAS (doi:10.1073/pnas.1510028112) Jacobson et al., also free to download. Jacobson et al. newer response to Clack et al. is paywalled.

    Anyway, Click on Clack :)
     
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    We have a rule of thumb that the last 10% takes 90% of the effort so I'm not a renewable purist. But I am perfectly fine if we get anything between 50-80% plucking the low hanging fruit. We're a clever species and as we work the problem we go up the learning curve and techniques and technology improves.

    Bob Wilson
     
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    "I'm not a renewable purist". This, oh just this. High-available-energy countries have the full buffet, and lots of money. Will move towards renewables as they see fit. At least, I hope that external costs of (worst) fossil-E get fairly assessed. Could only happen here and not in the following:

    Mid-available-energy countries aspire to move up. Should be their own decision how to do that. Fossil-E and renewable--E should be available for purchase or local development. Self decide and self invest.

    Low-available-energy countries are and have been historically impaired. Not least, because they allow some local Big Daddy to run away with any money that becomes available. This pattern makes it difficult for richer countries to 'help', quite aside from what energy-development path might be proposed. I am pessimistic here; only otherwise if new E-supply systems do not offer a Big Daddy profit pathway. Leaning towards renewable--E, but it depends on local conditions, and how external money can affect local efforts.

    Like BobW I am not a purist.
     
  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    This is one reason why the prospect of a Christy-dream, coal-fired, power plant and power grids does not make a lot of sense. The kleptocrats will 'eat the seed corn' and pocket the scrap value of everything. I just don't see this as a useful path.

    A wind turbine is at a lower risk so they can be small enough to get through the grasp of kleptocrats. The same is true with modest sized photocell arrays and energy storage. Photo arrays using micro inverters can also scale and again, avoid the kleptocrats.

    Bob Wilson
     
  16. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  17. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    A short-term increase in coal mining. Long-terms trends matter more of course, but in the interest of being aware:

    Associated Press
     
  18. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    My understanding is the new PA coal mine is for metallurgy and export to China.

    Bob Wilson
     
  19. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Metallurgical coal is special stuff. Deserves consideration as a separate industry from power generation.
     
    bwilson4web likes this.