End of the hybrid era?

Batteries continue to get cheaper, smaller, longer lived, and higher energy density. That improves the usefulness of plug in hybrids PHEV and battery electric vehicles BEV. The Prime is a better hybrid than the Prius 4th generation due to the larger battery (which causes other concerns).

 

I'm fine with a hybrid, definitely less complexity, and much more likely to have a spare, less compromises in hatch/trunk room, and so on. I wonder, would this rush to plug-ins ebb, if the incentives and carpool lane status evaporated?

 

There is an overlap:

• Gen-1 - could go about a mile at speeds of 30 mph or lower after running out of gas.
• Gen-2 - user initiated PHEV technology and reverse-engineering of EV signal.
• Gen-3 - came with an EV button and was the basis for the PiP.

In each case, the vehicle EV capacity slightly increased but always under the control laws. This meant it was possible to engage in driving techniques to exploit the resulting, vehicle efficiency.

• PiP - based on the Gen-3 and shamelessly copy of early user efforts, a good first attempt. It also brought LiON batteries into the car.
• Prime - a light-weight but serious plug-in, it at least shows Toyota has some skills. Sad to say, more because they have to rather than embracing the technology.

Then there is the hydrogen fool cell, money pit. Sad to say, as long as California continues to demand it, resources will evaporate in a technology dead-end. Buyers are voting with their wallets.

Bob Wilson

 

Do you really think California is a good state to monitor the national trend? I wonder what are the sales of PHEVs, BEVs, and FCEVs in rest of states.

 

Well, with the high sales of Prius "hatchback" in California, would the market be getting "saturated"? And with so many on the road they loose the carpool benefits.

I was tempted by the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, but with a 40 litre fuel tank it is a city vehicle, and the "true" mileage is about the same on long trips as a non-hybrid model (about 10l/100 km). With frequent fuel stops. I'd buy one if it had an 80 litre tank.

I suspect the Tesla is a "flash in the pan", because once people realize the poor build quality they will drop them. At least that is what I've been reading.

 

Sure, it’s not a matter of if, but when.
Cali is a nice state, but it’s a big world out there.
I suspect a longer time horizon than the author, and I don’t have a hidden agenda.

 

You might want to check Ebay, sold listings. Discounting those 'selling' their Model 3 reservations, it looks like previous Teslas have depreciated but no worse than any other car.

Source: Tesla: Beyond the Hype | J.D. Power

COSTA MESA, Calif.: 21 March 2017 — Problems associated with Tesla Model S and Model X have little influence on the overt affection owners have for these cars and the brand, according to a J.D. Power report released today titled “Tesla: Beyond the Hype.”

“Tesla owners see themselves as pioneers who enjoy being early adopters of new technology,” said Kathleen Rizk, director, global automotive consulting at J.D. Power. “Spending $100,000 or more on a vehicle that has so many problems usually would have a dramatically negative effect on sales and brand perception. Right now, though, Tesla seems immune from such disenchanted customers.”

“Tesla: Beyond the Hype” is a detailed examination of the brand’s quality issues, based on multiple focus groups of Tesla owners and an in-depth evaluation of Tesla models against competitive vehicles by automotive research experts at J.D. Power.
. . .​

Once upon a time there was similar astonishment by the automotive press about Prius owners. They were aghast that anyone would own the slow, egg shaped, appliance, that made no sense. Teslas street performance and high price has pretty well shutdown those complaints.

In May 2016, a Tesla made less sense than the two plug-in hybrids sitting on our driveway. In nearly two years, we are seeing continued expansion of the SuperCharger and Tesla friendly charging networks. But Huntsville AL to Stillwater OK has a 300 mile segment between Little Rock AR and Tulsa OK that still challenges Tesla range.

We would have to spend at least one, possibly two nights getting a charge at a lower capacity charger. This may change if Walmart gets some Tesla semi-trailer trucks and works to get a network of truck chargers around Rogers AR.

Bob Wilson

 

I still think plug-ins are the prima donnas, and that hybrids of Prius ilk are going to become a lot more ubiquitous. There's giant steps made, going from something like a Civic or Corolla to a hybrid. If the majority of the vehicles just made that step, it'd nearly cut gas use in half.

Every time I roll up to a red light, all the air conditioning off, windows rolled down to enjoy the "fresh" air, surrounded by idling cars and the occasional rumbling diesel truck, I get it.

 

California gives free HOV to plug-ins and *not* to hybrids, not to mention generous rebates on purchase. This explains a large part of the sales in Ca.

Plug-in car purchase costs are also cheaper because Ca. mandates plug-in sales by the auto makers, so auto makers have to reduce costs to buyers to sell them.

So California represents the case, if you give enormous incentives and mandates to plug-ins over hybrids, plug-ins can make a dent.

Have I mentioned $7500 federal rebate yet for plug-ins over hybrids?

 

With batteries getting smaller and cheaper and hybrids getting "heavier" (more powerful electric systems, not more massive), we should probably just skip straight to plugins.

The jump from my 35MPG conventional car to my 52MPG 2004 Prius hybrid was massive, but not as massive as the jump from the 2004 to the Prime. It's incredibly beneficial to not use gas 95% of the time, and for 3/4 of my miles driven. It means we aren't buying oil from countries that hate us, and that's a big deal to me.

 

[Warning: it would be a much smaller graph, so would have a larger margin of error]

Mississippi would be as close to a pure market driven state.
No state incentives for any car.
No HOV lanes in the state, so no advantage to give to allow driving in one.
No incentives for PV solar (lady in my town is not allowed to even give her excess solar to the city electric co., she has to store it in batteries)
Cheap gas
So the Federal tax credit would be the only imposed bias.

 

The incentives in California skews the market there. But plug in sales are still rising nation wide as hybrids have plateaued.

However, the arrival of cheap mild hybrid systems mean the age of the 'traditional' ICE car is coming to an end. In a generation, people won't bother qualifying if a car without a plug in is a hybrid or not because they all will be to some degree.

 

'a generation' makes some sense. and in a generation, we are also looking at self driving cars, and potentially less car ownership.

 

I think the hybridization of the car fleet will happen sooner. It is the near future when China will only allow a mild hybrid at minimum to be sold there, and Volvo already plans to stop offering a straight ICE by that time. It will take longer in the US because of our gas prices.

While I've seen source material call auto start/stop systems micro-hybrids, I have never seen manufacturer literature refer to it as such. eAssist is a mild hybrid system, that GM never called a hybrid in public, and still doesn't on the Chevy site. Ram refers to their 48V hybrid system as just eTorque.

 

Yes, basically a requirement because the EU NEDC test spends a quarter of its time idling versus something like 10% for the US EPA testing. It's a lot harder to meet emissions standards when 25% of the time your being penalized for something so easy and proven to do.

 

AZ only gives HOV plates to vehicles that are 100% alt-fuel, not anything with a hybrid.

Maybe that's why Primes sell slowly here and the Toyota incentives are under $1000.

All we get is the federal tax credit.

 

Maybe hybrids and plug-ins are not a hot growth trend anymore, but it seems that every week I see more and more Prii in parking lots of the places I go regularly. It's also quite normal to see several Prii in traffic both passing and being passed.

As gas gets close to $3 average (it's 2.75 down the street; might have to gas up in couple months haha), maybe saving bucks might be sexier than dumping fuel down a 4 barrel.

Then there's the joke about the Old Bull and the Young Bull........