Featured EU will allow discrepancy factor in emissions

What a shame...what a message to the cheaters...

 

whatever this cost vdub, it was a lot less than the repair work, that's for sure. i think someone here predicted this?

 

That the is most confusing set of numbers I've seen since my first Differential Equations class . . . reads like the tax code. I'm going to have to read source materials or hopefully Robert Llewellyn will address it in one of this YouTube broadcasts . . . if he can do it without spitting and growling.

Bob Wilson

 

That's the green interpretation. My equally biased interpretation is that they raised the allowable level thus making it legal. My guess is that a regulation is easier to pass than a law.

 

Who cares. We still have places in the US that don't even smog check cars.

 

Ok, found a credible source with details: European Commission Provisionally Approves Real World Diesel Emission Testing - HybridCars.com

• in a first step, car manufacturers will have to bring down the discrepancy to a conformity factor of maximum 2.1 (110%) for new models by September 2017 (for new vehicles by September 2019);
• in a second step, this discrepancy will be brought down to a factor of 1.5 (50%), taking account of technical margins of error, by January 2020 for all new models (by January 2021 for all new vehicles).
. . .
Following are rules as they’ve been amended over the years for diesel vehicles sold in Europe:
• January 2000: 500 mg/km (Euro3)
• January 2005: 250 mg/km (Euro 4)
• September 2009: 180 mg/km (Euro 5)
• September 2014: 80 mg/km (Euro 6)​

So 2.1 x 80 mg/km = 168 mg/km

In effect rolling Euro 6 back to Euro 5. If my source is accurate, the USA standard is 0.07 g/mile:

70 mg/mile
1.6 km/mile
44 mg/km​

This makes meeting the USA standard a significant technical challenge . . . if I did my sums right.

​

Bob Wilson

 

US standard since 2007 has been max of 200 mg at 120,000 miles and average fleet of 70 mg. The max for a new vehicle is 140 mg. That means if its only a small percentage of the fleet 140 mg NOx is alright.

The Euro 6 standard was 80 mg/km or 129 mg NOx/mile, very close to epa on new cars. 2.1x is 271 mg/mile.

BMW does not seem to have any problem meeting the US standard, but its diesel system is much more expensive than VWs, its a matter of money. The roll back means that Europeans will continue to get higher polluting diesels, that are less expensive than diesels in the US.

 

Ok, let me see if we're on the same page:

• Euro 6, 80 mg/km = 1.6 km/mi * 80 mg/km = 128 mg/mi ~= 129 mg/mi - Close enough

This is the part that confuses me:

• USA max 200 mg(/mi) @120,000 miles ~= 125 mg/km
• USA max 140 mg(/mi) @0 miles ~= 88 mg/km
  
• USA avg 70 mg(/mi) ~= 44 mg/km

So the first two sort of make sense but the 'max' vs. 'avg' is confusing. Could you expand on how the "max" and "avg" are measured?

I'm trying compare the USA standard(s) with the 'Euro 5/Euro 6'. The reason is I'm trying to understand how much relief the EU technical committee gave compared with the USA standard.

I get the impression that a diesel meeting the USA standard would meet Euro, 6. Yet VW claims 60,000 cars can be fixed with a software update . . . suggesting the most recent TDI models with the EA288 engine have the hardware needed. Yet the prices have been good enough VW was selling a bunch:

Not shown, the Prius hatchback was running about 10,000 units per month over this interval.

So it sounds like the EU technical commission has backed off, significantly, from coming even close to the USA NOx standard whereas 'Euro 6' appears near twice as high as the USA 'average' standard. Yet VW claims a software fix will achieve USA standards . . .

The Yugo is an example of an affordable European car. The girl friend of my brother had one and we sure don't need Yugo-quality, EU diesels. I know because I've also experienced the California and Denver bowl pollution as well as crappy air days in the DC area.

Now some of our Aussi members might call this protectionism by emissions regulation. But if VW can make affordable TDIs that meet USA standards, I'm surprised EU technical commission would chose cheap diesels and a hacking cough. Perhaps the EU voters will 'clear the air.'

Bob Wilson

 

Does it mean that a manufacturer can sell new cars with up to 140 mg/mile provided that his fleet average does not go beyond 70 mg?

 

Over the duration of the test. Do not exceed 80mg/km and average below 44mg/km. Or 140mg/mi and 70mg/mi in US units.

 

So the USA requires five tests. If I remember correctly there is a weighting for MPG. Is that used for NOx too?

Bob Wilson

 

Realistically the whole infrastructure of the EU is diesel-based including refineries in diesel mode and farmers growing rapeseed for biodiesel like King corn in USA so cannot change over-night. But in USA we have more flexibility. Good to get EU on a truth based eco-path.

 

As Giora said, that is the average of a car manufacturers fleet, I believe its sales weighted. A manufacturer is allowed to manufacture in the highest NOx bin (in 2007-today for light vehicles this is 140 mg NOx/mile through 50,000 miles, then 200 mg NOx/mile through 200,000 miles), as long as the balance of cars you sell. Many states such as Texas don't even test emissions of pre 2007 diesels because they are allowed to be so dirty, we just hope they leave the fleet soon.

Yes if you pass epa, unless it is a wierd difference in test pattern that works on epa but not on the easier nedc test, a US 2007 after properely functioning diesel should pass the euro test. US delivered cars often have different emissions equipment than European spec cars. I don't know what the differences are. Even the relaxed standards in europe are tighter than pre-2007 standards in the US.

Euro 6 was 80 mg/km or about 130 mg/km, US standard is 140 mg/mile or 87 mg/km, very close. They have now made it about twice. I expect bmw to still sell the more expensive urea based SCR systems and tune their engines for low emissions. I wouldn't look at the new 168 mg as the average, that should be the maximum. In 2006, 25% of cars and trucks in the US were allowed to emit 600 mg NOx/mile or around 375 mg/km.

I doubt it is just vw group, I'm sure many automakers in europe are producing more polluting cars. This is jobs versus air quality. To tell the truth I have no idea if the US needs to be as stringent as they are, but euro 5 regulations like US regulations pre-2007 were too lax. Most pollution comes from those euro4 and earlier cars.

I do not know, but I think it is the older 2 cycle test. Both european and US emissions testing probably underestimate pollution from new cars compared to the real world, but these provide much lower levels than the inaccurate tests did in the past.

 

Thanks, (I think)

The term "fleet" still has me a little confused. Sounds like the 'carbon credits' scheme. Regardless, I visited the CARB site and plotted three VW TDIs and the 2010 Prius:

So the "FTP" test shows the worst and the highway shows the best. But these were "defeat device" versions so the true numbers are an order of magnitude worse.

Bob Wilson

 

Think of it this way. The amount cars actually pollute is the some of the pollution each car puts out multiplied by the miles it travels.

For a given car company if they sell a low NOx car, they can sell a higher NOx car. In the US the highest, no matter what you sell is 140 mg/mile NOx when under 50.000 miles. The average has to be half that. Individual tailpipes have very safe NOx when it is bellow 200 mg/mile the max per vehicle estimated at 120,000 miles.

The NOx comes from the EPA test for it. That doesn't have a max per mile, but a number for the test.

The VW test results are invalid, which means the numbers that were fudged with special software should not count. I don't think anyone has tested them with the full protocol but in a way that it would operate in the real world. My guess from this is that it is over twice as much as it does on the EPA test. EPA just announced vw group has another 10,000 vehicles not on the original list with defeat software in the US. This includes a 2015 porsche diesel.

 

I was afraid you were going to say this.

A scheme like this begs having a super low emissions, 'cheap car', say a "Smart-for-two" with a highly efficient exhaust cleaning system. The tiny car can be an absolute dog (i.e., Consumer Reports runs around with their 'hair on fire') but offer a 'two-for-one' with a big-nice person, luxury car. In effect, here is your "land yacht" and it comes with a "dingy" for fetching "bread and butter" (or fancy horse radish based mustard.)

Bob Wilson

 

Maybe they can just add these as well.

EPA discovers defeat device in more VW TDI engines

 

If diesel V'dubs cheat system hardware allows NINE TIMES the legal limit of pollution . . . . . does that mean TDI's will now only have to improve 400% ??

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