EV Battery Costs Dropping Faster than Predicted

I will keep waiting for lower prices to convert a "classic" to a full EV.

 

I will call you to give me a hand......

 

sounds like a job for bill the engineer. but seriously, what percent of a $30,000. vehicle is battery cost, and how much would it come down if passed on by manufacturer? i do agree this is good news.

 

Let's see ... a bit or arithmetic.

A 50 kWh battery is about 35 kWh usable for around 125 mile range year round in all seasons.
At $300 per kWh bill of materials to the manufacturer, that is $15,000.

Nope, a $15k EV on the lot is nowhere close.

 

i also expect that, even with costs coming down, it's competition that will drive down retail pricing.

 

Subsidies and regulatory vehicles aside, 'competition' does not drive retail prices below cost of materials. Well, unless it is for the while that the Chinese are wiping out a domestic industry

 

'we sell below cost!' 'how do you make money?' 'volume!'

 

How much is Toyota charging to replace a 4kwhr Li PiP batt?

 

good question, i don't think we've seen one come up yet.

 

What do you sell ?
'Bridges!' 'Lots and lots of bridges!'

Oooooh, neato! A bridge to where ?!
'Usually to no-where, but we have a SPECIAL going, 10% off on bridges to China!!!'

 

actually most plug-ins like hybrids before them sell below cost. How can they do it? Volume volume volume? No.

The prius did it because MITI and toyota belived in the technology. MITI gave toyota a certain percentage of the costs (50% of the cost differential between a hybrid and a regular car) and the customer and toyota ate the rest. It pulled in other toyota cars so there was a marketing benefit, and costs really were invested R&D, so that the gen II could maket profits ;-)

The US DOE, Japan's METI, and other goverments are eating some of the costs for plug-ins. Some companies are dragged kicking and screaming because of sticks (additional penalties like the zev mandate) if they don't make some. Others in vest for R&D or marketing reasons. AFAIK tesla and porsche are the only companies actually making profits on their plug-ins, and porsche is a division of vw, which as a whole is investing not profiting at this stage.

Think of it this way, gm failed to invest in hybrids, and it hurt profitability of their other divisions. When the US and Chinese market grow in plug-in sales, those companies that fail to invest will likely be hurt in the future. Investing in plug-in technology is not a 5 year thing, it is a 10 year plus investment. lots of other investments, but look at GM versus Toyota in 1998-2008. Toyota probably broke even on hybrids during that period if you don't count marketing advantages, losing money in the first years than making it back in the later ones. It wasn't all prius, but an investment in the future mindset. Both companies made mistakes, but toyota rapidly grew market share, as gm lost it.

 

A saw a presentation by a major automotive industry battery market consulting group last month that estimated Tesla's pack-level costs (normalized for a 70 kwh pack size) at around $270 per kWh today and dropping to $200 by 2020 and $175 by 2025. Other battery suppliers are generally about 20% over those costs today and they will have to stay roughly competitive one way or another.

You are also being a bit conservative on your usage pack energy. Large pack BEVs generally allow a wider usable range than PHEVs for various reasons. A normal daily charge usually allows access to about 80% and a "100%" or "range" charge for a longer distance trip typically allows around 90% (88% LEAF, 95% Model S). Of course, most EV drivers want to leave a reserve of 3-5 kwh before the car might go into turtle mode. Still, that would leave 40-44 out of 50 kWh usable.

 

You're forgetting - manufacturers can sell EV's at a loss . . . . selling 'em . . . . even though most manufacturers aren't enthusiastic about them . . . . just for the ZEV/CARB credits.

.

 

Or buy an EV now. Drive it into the ground. Then call Tony Williams for support. With his new EV business, he will eventually go into the battery swapping business.

 

You didn't get it, I want to complete my EV conversion that I started 3 years ago.
I'm patiently awaiting for a significant price drop on the Lithium Batteries......