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Fewer autos, more miles, and more oil 2040

Every now and then I come across a study that on the face of it makes me laugh:

Source: Fewer Autos Will Drive More and Oil Use Will Rise by 2040 | TheDetroitBureau.com

The study reveals auto sales are going to decline steadily between now and 2040, especially in large markets such as the United States, China and India, the number of miles driven will continue to rise. Perhaps just as surprising, more than 80% of those miles will be traveled in vehicles using some form of gasoline- or diesel-powered vehicles.

Researchers predict that annual sales of privately owned vehicles in the United States, Europe, China and India will decline from 67 million vehicles annually to 54 million in 2040. However, the number of miles traveled globally will rise 65% to around 11 billion miles a year.

“A great ‘automotive paradox’—where more travel via car than ever, but fewer...

bwilson4web Nov 14, 2017 Read More Replies: 8

No VW Plug-in hybrids

Source: VW Won’t Offer Plug-In Hybrids in America | News | Car and Driver | Car and Driver Blog

C/D: You say the Tiguan will become the world’s biggest-selling SUV, but it doesn’t have a hybrid powertrain yet.
HD: No, not in Europe.
You showed the concept car originally as a hybrid, and it’s not a hybrid.
We will have a hybrid.
In Europe?
It’s not yet decided.
In America?
No. For America, plug-in hybrids don’t make a lot of sense for the upstream emissions, and they’re just not incentivized by the tax schemes.

. . .

Bob Wilson

bwilson4web Nov 14, 2017 Read More Replies: 9

Another Fuel Cell Article

Source: Toyota Mirai Chief Engineer Says Musk's Right About Electric Cars

Tanaka explained that the goal is to raise the car’s “practical range” to about 500 km (310 miles) due to the lack of charging infrastructure. As part of a joint effort with Nissan in Japan, the companies have built a network of 91 total hydrogen refueling stations, which is hardly enough to make the vehicles practical, regardless of range.

Editor’s Note: Because the obvious backstory is not being brought forward by Toyota, we’d like to take a moment to comment on the other and likely main reason the Toyota Mirai is still a “thing” in the US over a fully-electric option from the company.

A 300 mile FCV nets NINE California ZEV credits per sale – worth up to $5,000 a pop (~45k total) in avoided compliance charges, or these credit can be sold for cash to other non compliant OEMS. Not only that, these...

bwilson4web Nov 12, 2017 Read More Replies: 22