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Brace for Impact: U.S. Sales Plunge Ahead

Source: http://wardsauto.com/industry/brace-impact-us-sales-plunge-ahead

AlixPartners forecasts 2017 sales of 16.9 million units, down from a record 17.5 million last year. WardsAuto forecasts 17.1 million light-vehicle deliveries this year. Looking further ahead, AlixPartners thinks sales will tumble to 15.2 million in 2019, a forecast that runs counter to many others that see industry sales enjoying a long-term plateau near current levels.
. . .
Wakefield says a key element of the consultancy’s forecast is a “used-car time bomb” set to go off as 500,000 more vehicles will come off lease this year than year-ago. The flood of previously owned cars and trucks likely will double the 13% drop in used-vehicle prices the industry has witnessed since 2014.

“Our biggest concern is used cars,” says Wakefield, who sees the price drop costing automakers’ captive-finance companies upwards of $5 billion....

bwilson4web Jul 13, 2017 Read More Replies: 3

Rice University paper on F150 vs Prius

Source: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/files/c8cb9e96/BI-Brief-061417-CES_Trucks.pdf

U.S. sales of large passenger vehicles have boomed for most of the past decade. Yet despite continued reliance on gasoline propulsion in the U.S. and a trend toward larger, more powerful vehicles, the 7.6%
rise in miles driven seen from February 2012 to February 2017 yielded a gasoline demand increase of only 3.8%.1 Better engine technology likely underpins much of the rising gasoline consumption efficiency on U.S. roads and the big, powerful pickups and SUVs cherished by many American drivers are at the center of the action.
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Old news, we've known about the disproportionate effect of improving the efficiency of the least efficient vehicles. But it also brings up the 'problem of the commons.' If my neighbor chooses to commute to their business office in...

bwilson4web Jul 12, 2017 Read More Replies: 2

Too much inventory

Source: AD #2143 – Future Looks Bright for EVs, Ferrari SUV In the Works, Automakers Have Too Much Inventory – Autoline Daily

AUTOMAKERS HAVE TOO MUCH INVENTORY

Looks like we’re headed for blow-out sales of new cars in the American market. Automakers have too much inventory on hand. There are 4.1 million vehicles sitting on dealer’s lots, in rail yards and in transit. Last year at this time automakers had 66 days of inventory, now it’s 77 days. The problem is that sales are slowing down, but assembly lines keep on humming. And that’s especially true of passenger cars. For example, the Fiat 500 has 172 days of inventory. The Ford Fiesta has 104. The Buick Regal sits at 214 days, the Hyundai Azera 151 and the Toyota 86 has 135 days of supply.

Does anyone have a source of 'days of inventory' for our favorite rides?

Thanks,
Bob Wilson

bwilson4web Jul 10, 2017 Read More Replies: 6