February 2014 - Hybrid Dashboard

I also saw references saying, as of Year End 2012, that California was 35% to 40% of the Plug-In market. I am thinking when/if we see year end 2013 numbers it may be ~45% possibly higher in California. I could be wrong, but if not, you heard it here first.

PS- ...the data you showed re:CA PiP sales due to HOV is interesting

 

As others have said before, it doesn't seem like you own a Prius. There are all sorts of times where the battery will go down to 2-4 bars, and virtually none of them happen on the highway.

 

markabele, I bought my gen III prius in October 2009, and you are the first to post that it "seemed like" I was just lurking here. I would not be on this site if I didn't have one. I even posted mpg and handling numbers on our 85 mph toll road. My highway has hills, and I take many short trips on it. That + airconditioning, or airconditioning plus lots of hills are the only time I have gotten down bellow 3 bars. 4 is nowhere close to 40%.

Can you name the stituations where you have gotten down to 2 bars (regular prius not phv). That would be helpful, to troy's question. Do you disagree with me that it is hard to park with less than 3 bars, because the software in the prius does a good job at avoiding this situation?

 

The Insight2 and CR-Z do not have the reports of battery failures that the Civic had. Honda as likely wised up on their battery management.

Honda has three hybrid systems coming out now. The 2 motor, full hybrid system is in the Accords. The Civic will likely get the one in the new Fit hybrid. That one is closer to IMA. Its one motor mated to a 6 speed dual clutch transmission. The Fit beat out Toyota's hybrids for fuel economy on the Japanese test for its first year. The third system is the one motor with a motor on each rear wheel for AWD.

 

As an owner of the hybrid Lexus SUV (RX), I'm always amazed how many more Lexus sell comparred to it's cousin the highlander hybrid ... which can be ordered with practically the same nice features (AWD, lumbar support, etc) ... yet when fully optioned (apples to apples) there's a $20K difference. Yet the Lexus version outsells, about 6 to 1 !!

.

 

The US does not get the hybrid IS, the ESh sells fairly well, about a 25% take rate. Lexus may be not introducing the ISh here becasuse it is moving ESh production to the US, and may want hybrid buyers to buy that instead of the ISh.

Small And Midsize Luxury Car Sales In America - December 2013 And 2013 Year End - GOOD CAR BAD CAR The GSh and LSh are very expensive compared to their non-hybrid version. With the Tesla now having a shorter wait list, I can't see many choosing these hybrids. Lexus needs to drop the price if they are going to sell.

I thiink if gas mileage is priority then people will step down to the much lower priced ESh or TAH.

The RXh sales seem to be falling, but they do quite well given the price premium. RXh + Hihy sold 16K units last year down 7.5% for the RXh and down 14.4% forHihy from 2012.
December 2013 Dashboard - HybridCars.com

IMHO there is enough volume for toyota to build a luxury crossover (Lets face it the RXh rarely goes off road) eAWD hybrid based on the camry hybrid drive train, but with the di engine, larger battery, and improved eAWD with what toyota has learned. They should be able to improve mpg with better aerodynamics and the smaller ice, while dropping cost.

Compare Side-by-Side

The problemi is the ESh gets 40 mpg and the RXh gets 30mpg (cmb EPA), many may start thinking if they are going hybrid can they do without an SUV.

 

I could name the situations, but I would be wasting my breath since there is no point arguing with a brick wall. You are always right, everyone else is always wrong, it's cool. I, along with a few others I have conversations with, will go on believing you don't own a Prius.

 

I don't understand your problem with my post.

I said it was hard to get the prius liftback into a situation where it would be parked with a state of charge low enough to damage the battery, as oposed to honda's problems with leaving its second gen civic with low state of charge when parked. If you know of situtations where a driver when not trying to cause battery failure, may leave it parked with a poor state of charge, please tell us. I really can only, as I said in my post, talk about my own situation with the car. I did read that if you leave it in neutral you can drain the battery, but that is not normal operations.

As for the second part of your post, I am glad to hear that I am so important to you that you and your friends discuss me privately. You can go on believing in santa clause, or that I don't own a prius, I really don't care. If you had asked nicely I might have snapped a picture for you, of my prius, or its mods (aftermarket wheels, tires, head unit, speakers). But really I don't care if you believe in the easter bunny. I would be nice if we could have civil discussions on the forum though. I really did not mean to offend you when I posted that the prius battery is protected by software.

 

There was an "EV mode" button that let me drain the rental Prius to only 1 bar. It would have been very easy to just pull into a lot & parked the car in that state (40% I presume).

And yes draining a Honda to the state is easy. The car doesn't disable battery assist until the SOC reads 1 bar & is slow to recharge it. All it takes is driving in 5th gear up a slope.

 

At 2 bars the ICE comes on, so I'm about certain it didn't get down to 1 bar.

 

Whatever..... I didn't sit there and make intimate notes about my Prius rental. (A car is just an appliance not a girlfriend.) Idrove in EV mode until the engine turned on (loudly). I could have parked the car in that drained battery state, just like a Honda, and shortened its life (supposedly).

Frankly I don't see how 40% is a bad SOC even if it drops a little below. Battery university.com recommends 40% as the ideal state for storage.

 

OK ...found the basic Plug_in sales data on CNCDA.org and electricdrive.org
I estimate that California has sold approx. 42% of plug-ins since 2010, and approx. 44% in 2013

PS- I can also say as of 12/31/2013 there were 28,739 CA HOV green srickers out of 36,715 plug-ins sold. So that is 78% of CA PHEV owners with green stcikers, but that probably increases to 80% when the backlog of December applications is filled. So you can take CA Green sticker total and divide by 0.8 to estimate total CA PHEV. However, this same math does not work for CA white stickers for some reason.

To sum up as of December 31, 2013:

• About 42% of US plug_ins were sold in CA since (2010 to 2013)
• About 44% of US plug_ins were sold in CA in 2013
• About 78% of CA PHEV owners have green HOV stickers as of 12/31 (but this could increase)

Electric Drive Sales
http://www.cncda.org/secure/GetFile.aspx?ID=2668

 

I had a 2013 Nissan Altima S sedan 4 cyl rental all day last weekend. Never figured how to reset the MPG gage for my trip, but noticed the running avg MPG was pegged at 34.6. Don't know how accurate that is, but for leadfooted renters, it seems quite good.

My small sample of 150 miles driving came out over 39 MPG at the pump. Maybe I got 35 or so for the day.

I really didn't like the Altima / CVT drivetrain behavior: the engine was lugging at low RPMs leaving every stop. Good highway cruiser, but nauseating to me around town.

But, my point is, this is a lot more powerful car, more interior room, big trunk, 'normal' looking with lots of features in the 23k price range ....

and likely over 30 mpg average.

Toyota needs to make 4th gen Prius liftback a MUCH better car.

 

Maybe because the RX starts at $700 lower than the Highlander. Well, for the FWD, which isn't available with the Highlander(or on the RX my area it appears). AWD is $500 more. Getting apples to apples adds $8700 to the RX.

There is a lease and 0.9% finance offer on the Lexus site, and nothing for the HiHy. Between Toyota's and dealer offers, the cost to upgrade to the Lexus hybrid, RX or ES, may not be as great as the MSRP suggests.

 

J.D. Power Sees Three-Fold Growth for Hybrids by 2015
by shamit April 8, 2008

" .... The new study predicts that hybrids will account for seven percent of the car market in 2015—up from 2.2 percent in 2007... "

J.D. Power Sees Three-Fold Growth for Hybrids by 2015 - HybridCars.com

Not even 3% these days. J.D. was way off.

 

Cheap Gas, More Choices, and Possibly Ford Are Hurting The Aging Prius
by Jeff Cobb March 7, 2014
Cheap Gas, More Choices, and Possibly Ford Are Hurting The Aging Prius - HybridCars.com

 

The aging cycle is an interesting one. Some people actually wait for this stage before purchasing. They want to make sure all possible problems have been worked out already.

The "low" gas prices are a very real problem though. We've been watching the "boil a frog" scenario play out right before our eyes. I still remember when gas first shot up to $2.25 per gallon. It was a very big deal, since gas was still less than $1 when I first bought a Prius. It had more than doubled since then. Later on, $2.99 ended up scaring the heck out of people. Stations kept the price at that as long as possible, eating into profit to prevent having to advertise $3. Then all of a sudden, we had to deal with $4. Afterward, back down to around $3.25 made everyone breath a sign of relief.

Now at $3.59, some people have upgraded to a more efficient vehicle. Automakers have convinced them that 40 MPG highway is plenty good. The fact that combined MPG is mid-30s' and city is low-30's isn't considered a problem is reason to worry. They've been led to believe that's good enough. After all, they had to downsize their vehicle quite a bit to achieve that. Traditional vehicles still very much dominate the market... leaving hybrids in a struggle-for-survival role.

That obviously puts Prius in a delicate position. Increased choices from other automakers as well as Toyota itself makes it easy for a sale to be lost. But establishing diversity now is priceless in the long run. The debunking of misconceptions and the squashing of greenwashing efforts has contributed to the loss of attention. They are becoming more and more common. Nothing stands out anymore.

Flatten purchase-rates aren't the end of the world. In fact, stability can get a good thing. There is hope. We know interest will rise with the release of the next generation. Gas prices will continue to steadily rise too. The water can only get so hot before the frog eventually dies.

 

• ...wonder what their prediction was back around 2002/2003. That's when I first saw a prediction of 5% hybrids, and I said "what's a hybrid?"
• As far as decline of Prius sales, let's face it US Congress has abandoned hybrids in favor of Plug_ins which get large US gov't and state subsidies (in those states which lead Plug_in sales). Hybrids get no subsidies. Because Toyota has become world leader in hybrids, it sort of encourages competitors to move to Plug_ins where Toyota is not saluting.
• Furthermore I have been very vocal about tax policies in say VA extra taxes on a Green Car (Hybrid, diesel, or nat gas) are quite large. You pay $5000-$10000 more for a green car and then you get taxed out the wazzoo (sp?). You have be driving 15ooo perferrably 20000 a year to pay off green car with fuel savings. Plug_ins might be bright spot, but only because of large subsidies.

More points:

• If you look at Prius sales, 2011-2013 were enormous years compared to prior years, so it would perhaps be lucky to hold at that level.
• Prius is No. 1 in CA although that includes c+v+LB; the Civic is No. 1 as a single model. CA is 9.3% hybrids+ Plug_ins as the leading market in the USA.

 

I think you are looking at the wrong numbers and wrong segment. Its a midsized 4 door sedan, which makes it more comparable to the camry hybrid and fussion hybrid, with more competition from the accord hybrid.

Compare Side-by-Side

The camry hybrid's drivetrain beats the altima's in every catagory but price. Performance is improved, as is city gas milage. The only question fuel savings versus hybrid premium. Even at today's gas prices a midsized hybrid makes sense versus the non-hybrid version, but... there still is some wierdness in the eCVT and feel in the brakes. The Nissan already suffers from the cvt wierdness so why not a hybrid here.

The prius liftback is a different beast, so no need to compare the roominess and trunk. It doesn't really need 3 adults in the back, so it can be narrower to be more aerodynamic. The prius c does free up some of the cost constraints, that were part of the gen III. If they produce it in america, the gen IV should cut manufactured costs (lower electricity costs, lower labor cost, lower transportation costs). I expect the gen IV to improve on the gen III, but its not going to be a better camry hybrid, it will be an incremental change, with if rumors are correct, more fun to drive, better fuel economy, lighter.