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Gas Prices to Jump - Good News for Hybrid Sales

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by eheath, Mar 18, 2012.

  1. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    First they aren't my oil companies but some perspective is in order.

    Last year exxon made $41B in profits. Saudi Arabia had oil revenues of over $300B almost all of it profit. Saudi Arabia is part of a cartel whose express purpose is to manipulate the supply and demand of oil. Who do you think gets more of the money?
    This is from 2008
    http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2008/1124/044.html
    We can go down country by country, but this gets extremely off topic. Exxon made some of its profit because of Opec's market manipulation, its not the other way around. Direct oil company profits are responsible for less than a dime of the price of gas. In 2010 exxon estimated theirs was 2 cents, but they didn't include the higher value of their reserves:D

    The solution is to break some of the monopoly power, but both using less oil and producing more.

    The US in tenable for continuing the bad policies, but the US only partially responsible. The roots of terrorism go much earlier than any US involvement. Any responsibility is bad though.

    We can look to solutions or try to assign blame. There is plenty of blame to go around, but focusing on it seems to delay good policies. Blaming the oil companies or past leaders bad moves doesn't get us anywhere, but we can look to past mistakes to try not to repeat them.
     
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  2. Tech_Guy

    Tech_Guy Class Clown

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    Thank You for putting things in proper perspective!!!

    Keith :)
     
  3. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Thank you very much for taking a crack at the question, but I am shocked if we are still <1% hybrids on the road. Do you think it is possible many of the 250,000,000 cars are idle so if we knew what is actually being used is higher % hybrid?
     
  4. DeadPhish

    DeadPhish Senior Member

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    Actually now we in the US are back just below where our daily consumption was in early 2008 before the economic crash. Business has picked up again and we are consuming what we did 4 yrs ago.

    We as a nation cannot be expected to use less oil* each and every year simply because we as a nation are growing in both population and the size of our economy. This simple fact almost requires that we will be using more and more oil every year from now onward.

    However what is declining IMO is 'personal usage' of petro-products. From our vehicles to our homes to our food to just about everything that's delivered to us we each have fewer and fewer petro-products 'attributed' to each of us than we had 5 or 10 yrs ago. This is good. This is why conservation is good and necessary.

    This is necessary because of our growing population and growing economy. There will always be a place in our economy for oil and its by-products. It should be a smaller and smaller part as we progress. But we have to share a declining supply.

    *Total consumption of oil
     
  5. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    http://www.creditwritedowns.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/us-gasoline-consumption.jpg
    gasoline usage in 2011 is at 2004 levels. Production may be at 2008 levels, but that includes a large change from importing gasoline to exporting it.

    Yes we can, and need to use less gasoline both in per capita and total terms. Our usage level is above most members of the world. hybrids and plug-ins have to be part of this strategy. The world wide consumption is rising, primarily in asia.

    Oil production and consumption: Running dry | The Economist
     
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  6. spwolf

    spwolf Senior Member

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    in some weird way you are trying to blame Saudi Arabia for US oil consumption, they are doing what any other company and govt would do, including US. Especially US.

    I think speculators are increasing fuel prices a lot more than OPEC.

    Why didnt US Govt, as well as European Govts work on lowering oil consumption? They had decades to do that. And by that, I dont mean CIA trying to arrange the world to their liking and miserably failing every freaking time.
     
  7. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    money, money,money,money ....... money (ever hear that song?)

    "America’s oil and natural gas industry supports 9.2 million jobs and 7.7 percent of our nation’s GDP. The industry provides higher-than-average wages and helps ensure our nation’s energy security. In the process, the industry generates tax revenues that contribute billions of dollars every year to federal, state and local government.
    As a tremendous source of revenue that fuels the U.S. economy, major energy producers pay their fair share: the oil and natural gas industry pays income taxes, royalties and other fees totaling nearly $86 million every day..."

    Taxes | Energy Tomorrow
     
  8. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    OPEC is acting like the cartel it is, setting production to reap maximum profits. That includes setting it high enough to keep consumption high, when it drops, then causing shortages when it feels like it for political means. So yes, OPEC is the enemy. I don't blame the drug dealer for being a thug, it just is one. We all need to recognize what is going on. You looked confused and seemed to be saying the non opec oil companies were setting the supply and reaping the biggest profits. That is false.

    Knowing this it has been poor policy in the US to not do more to reduce consumption. OPEC is thuging, and if our policy is to support the thugs we are in the wrong. The US can not quit cold turkey, but it can ease off the stuff, and go to producers that act less like criminals and murderers. I hope the criminal regime in north sudan falls. That means the Chinese will be buying more saudi oil. Its in the US's best interest to be buying less in case that happens. Tighter oil sanctions in iran also give the house of saud more power.



    Why did the europeans colonize the arab world and set up their oil companies there? Because they were imperialists and felt the people living there were inferior. At least that is my reading of history. The us seemed to try to continue their failed policies. Many of the documents are now public of the british plans to shape the middle east. I do not think we should continue these failed policies, and do not think the us is. But this is history, if you actually read my remarks they were about increasing north american production and reducing north american consumption.

    +1
    Yep, and if we kill the oil subsidies and add an oil tax they will actually be paying their fair share. There are lots of lobbies in favor of cheap oil. It takes vision to stand against them and their money and PAC. The biggest PACs keeping oil consumption high are the UAW and auto manufactures. Next in line is the oil lobby.
     
  9. cwerdna

    cwerdna Senior Member

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    Because there seems to be no political will. If politicians vote for higher gas taxes, it becomes fodder for the opposition and that politician won't get reelected.

    Then you have blame games like one party blaming the other for doing nothing about high gas prices and the other (or at least candidates) claim that the solution is to drill more and that you can drive whatever you want, etc.

    To quote from http://priuschat.com/forums/freds-h...over-barrel-u-s-oil-addiction.html#post912855
    An Energy-Independent Future - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - 06/16/10 - Video Clip | Comedy Central has a longer version of all these Presidents being quoted.

    Sorry to bring up some politics. I don't want this thread to get banished to FHOPol (which I don't have access to, nor want access to). At least Presidents from both parties are well represented.
     
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  10. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    Why the US uses so much energy - comments on U.S. energy use

    "...But the main reason that the U. S. uses much more energy per capita than the rest of the world is simply because the people living here honestly don't care about their energy consumption. Sure, if you ask them, almost any American will reply that he is very concerned about energy consumption. And most Americans do complain about gas prices and their electric bills. But few will even consider doing anything about it.

    Very few Americans choose a product based on its energy consumption. Most of those who do are ridiculed as being cheapskates or treehugging extremists. Waste is glorified in this country; it is a sign that you have "made it." Most of those who do claim to be concerned about energy consumption usually claim that it is somebody else's fault, like the government's or the manufacturers'. They refuse to see how they are contributing to the problem.

    These manufacturers are simply giving consumers what they are asking for. And for most consumers, low cost or fancy features are far more important than energy efficiency, if energy use is even considered at all.

    An obvious example is the number of big pickup trucks and vans and SUVs on the American highways today. These vehicles do have legitimate value and many people, such as farmers, ranchers, carpenters, plumbers, and delivery people are justified in buying these vehicles. But a significant number of these vehicles are purchased by people simply as a fashion statement and who use them almost entirely as commuter vehicles..."
     
  11. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    If I wrote that article, I probably would have said the reason that US uses more energy is because we as a nation have historically pursued a cheap energy, free market policy as a key part of our strategy for economic growth. Given the relative affluence of the country, there was not huge incentive to save energy.
     
  12. JeffHastings

    JeffHastings Member

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    It's ONLY good news for hybrid sales, not for the economy and those vaunted green alternatives aren't yet truly ready for primetime. Those who argue against the pipeline and added drilling just aren't dealing with reality. I'd love to run my car on algae fuel but it's not ready yet. We don't want the economy to run off the rails waiting for green fuel. It'll get here soon enough but in the meantime we need to increase domestic oil production on Federal lands, not just private lands and welcome a supplyline from Canada, a reliable source not potentially hostile to our interests. The nation can't afford $5.+ gallon gasoline because families won't switch to hybrids and electrics in short order, not with big payments still to make on their SUVs, minivans and the like. There's no good reason not to do more responsible oil drilling on federal lands and approve the Keystone XL Pipeline, as long as proper federal oversight is in place to ensure compliance with all reasonable environmental concerns.
     
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  13. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    Let gas prices be what they are, but use lots and lots of FUD on others about what you heard gas prices are going up to... whether true that you heard it, or not, who cares ...

    the only reliable thing that drives the herd away from land barges is high(er) gas prices.

    In March 2008, I was actually planning the idea of getting a Honda Ridgeline, a 16 MPG land barge that seemed like a do-it-all vehicle (I owned a dirt bike at the time) and wanted seats for 4 at least...

    I ran into an owner at a gas station, saying they just spent $70 to refill after about 300 miles .... know what, after that very moment, I didn't want a Ridgeline anymore, ever.... cont'd
     
  14. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    ... couple months later when I was thinking about Prius and gas was over $4, was at a Toyota dealer and some dude interjected (sp?), he heard gas was heading towards $7 / gallon. Know what? That put FUD into me and I was more interested in Prius.

    Time is over for playing softball with knuckleheads in behemoths. GM and Ford make them because people buy them and I guess ask for them in 'focus groups' I suppose.

    I was looking around at many of the vehicles while leaving our 41 year old home tract this evening ....

    cwerdna is right .... lots of land barges and many of them have GM badges. Those stupid A$$ Suburbans show up so much.

    I've got less repect for Ford and GM today. Do you know in 2008, neither of them made a minivan? I don't think they make minivans to this day. I know some people actually need 7 or 8 passenger seating and need a minivan. But, my aren't Ford and GM clever. They canned minivans years ago and made ...

    Land Barges - Expeditions, Suburbans, Tahoes ...

    what do people see in those stupid blocky things?

    Like said before, just hit 'em with FUD. No need to be kind about things. Tell 'em reports are gas is heading to 6, $7 per gallon. Screw with their heads.
     
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  15. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    A Sienna minivan will get a few or so MPGs more than any Suburban piece of junk...

    Down in that sub 20's MPGs range, the curve is very steep, so a few MPGs translates into notable savings at the pump.
     
  16. Erikon

    Erikon Active Member

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    Well, Ford went with the Flex, that big wagon instead of the Windstar minivan, GM was, well, GM!
     
  17. DeadPhish

    DeadPhish Senior Member

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    I was writing about petroleum consumption, not specifically gasoline usage. Our national consumption of petro-products in 2011 is just below our consumption in 2008 as I stated. [eia.gov 2011 AEO Retrospective Table 4]
    EIA - Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review

    2008 7.135 Billion bbl consumed
    2011 6.989 Billion bbl consumed

    Both of these numbers are down from the peak years of 2004-2007 when we used over 7.5 Billion bbl annually.

    From this data I'll correct my original statement that although consumption is skewed downward by the Great Recession and economic crash we could possibly less petro-products as a nation even while growing. This remains to be seen this year and through 2013 as the overall level of business expands back to 2006-2008 levels.

    Interesting data takeaway from Table 4. In 1994 when EIA began making projections into the future it estimated that in 2011 we would use 7.775 Billion bbl annually. We were on track to be near or just under that level except for the fall off in consumption in 2008-2011 due to the crash.

    We'll have to wait and see if the downward slope in consumption continues these next several years or if consumption turns around and starts upward again.
     
  18. DeadPhish

    DeadPhish Senior Member

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    Sorry this is a 20th Century solution.

    In this Century our best opportunity is to address the worst offenders head on. This means dealing with the land barges, delivery veicles, personal trucks for commuting to the office :(, and millions of heavy duty vehicles that help build our economy.

    Oil as a fuel is outdated. It centainly won't disappear but especially here in NA it really has little or no future. We are the Saudi Arabia of Natural Gas. NG can be used to power everything from subcompacts to over-the-road haulers. It can be used in any hybrid, midsized gasser or diesel pickup.

    The cost of NG for fuel now is one-third the cost of petro-fuel. Why on earth should we be looking to invest in a fuel that's three times as expensive as the one that we are swimming in all over the country?

    Within months Ram, GM and Ford will all be out offering trucks which will be powered by NG/Gasoline. Cummins already has thousands of NG/Diesel trucks on the roads here in NA. At first this is going to start with fleet vehicles that normally return to the same refueling point every day. This makes sense from a distribution perspective. There's no need to build any infrastructure in most cases.

    But as was noted by a prior poster this addresses the worst offenders first. If a truck which now gets 16 mpg can be converted to 50/50 NG/Gas or NG/Diesel that effectively doubles its liquid fuel rating or more accurately halves its liquid fuel consumption. This would make say an F150 or RAM 1500 as efficient as a 4cyl Camry or even a Corolla. Think about that!

    And it doesn't require any massive additional exploration or drilling .... we are literally swimming in the stuff so much so that the NG owners are having to cap their wells .... there's just too much of it within our borders.


    *BTW the Keystone Pipeline - when it gets approved - won't add any appreciable amounts to our national fuel supply. It's all destined to refineries in Texas where it will be processesd and exported. We get nothing. Another way to view the project....
    • it solves a massive problem that Canada has ( too much liquid fuel and no way to get it to market ) by using the center of the US as a conduit;
    • it supports the refineries which export gasoline and diesel in TX and LA which are now supplied from overseas
    **BTW if I'm correct, it was my business in the past, this fuel will never 'enter' the US. It will pass through the pipeline on a Temporary Importation Bond ( TIB ) and as such the final product(s) must be exported in their entirety.
     
  19. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

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    Our share, at peak oil was 0.5 gallons per person per day (for everything). That is the point from which we need to start reducing.

    Americans EAT more oil than that. Forget cars, planes, heating, cooling.
     
  20. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    ...your 1/2-gal per day figure is correct for worldwide average petroleum use avearged over 7-billlion people.

    ...for USA its closer to 2.6-gal/day averaged over 310-million pop assuming 19.5-million barrels per day x 42 for gallons. Presumably if we added electric coal gas etc we would look high consumption there also.