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Gas Prices to Jump - Good News for Hybrid Sales

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by eheath, Mar 18, 2012.

  1. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    AG- I would say the NE refineries shutting down because they are forced to pay higher EU (Brent price) for crude oil vs. USA lower price (West Texas). They are economically disadvantaged, old, taking a loss on paper. Other factors include demand reduction due to ethanol, better MPG cars, and a big factor is other countries taking initiative to build new refineries (eg; India).
     
  2. bedrock8x

    bedrock8x Senior Member

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    One observation I have, during the gas price spike in 08, when it hit $4.39 and I saw SUVs and trucks started to slow down. But this time, this is not happening.
    I think most of us is no longer sensitive to price spike and willing to pay for it as fact of life, gas price is going to be high.
     
  3. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I did over simplify. The main reasons for the losses are they use more expensive oil and there is some less expensive oil they could refine, but there is not trasport from the new american oil fields. But they also can not refine the lower grades of oil upgrading for this and pollution standards is very expensive. The losses are real not just on paper. But in the short term the problems of shutting these down are causing part of the spike.

    UPDATE 1-Refinery shutdowns to drive up US Northeast fuel costs-EIA | Reuters

    There has been a trade for a long time, diesel from us refineries for gasoline from European refineries. This has the effect of reducing refining costs for both fuels and matching supply with demand. To avoid new investment in North East refineries, the way the oil companies seem to be structuring to export the diesel from the gulf coast to Europe, then import the gasoline from Europe to the north east. This is already starting to cause some pain.
     
  4. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    ...all correct I am saying yes and availability of importatble gaso on the rise, not just from Europe but elsewhere. Texas/LA/OK are more well positioned. It'll be interesting to see if USA refined product exports continue to grow or if that was a one-off year in 2011. My guess is trend to more imports.
     
  5. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    IMHO it is not a good thing to not have north east refining capability. The government is very slow to change regulations to encourage investment though, so these refineries will close. The market will take a few years to build the transportation infrastructure.
    I expect imports in the future for gasoline and increased exports of diesel, making the US a net export of fuel. This is the reverse of a long trend. Regulations are causing refiners to under invest in european refineries. Brazil is going to increase their refining also, so the exports will not grow to be a high percentage.
     
  6. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    ...I guess we will not invite you to the next Northeast business roundtable meeting. I think maybe Shell is proposing a big ethylene cracker (via nat gas) in Southern PA/WVa area. Probably the start of something big in terms of return of industry to Northeast due to the cheap nat gas supply.
     
  7. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I don't mean I'm upset that the northeast is getting rid of the pollution.:D They probably need something new and lower polluting. Concentrating so much refining on the gulf coast where we have already had past shut downs from hurricanes is not a great national strategy. The other problem is the north east uses some fuels only made in the united states, but the jones act prohibits transporting them on non-US flagged tankers, and their aren't many US tankers.:mad: Infrastructure needs to be built to distribute fuels coming by ship and pipeline.
     
  8. Rybold

    Rybold globally warmed member

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    How many BPD is the pipeline supposed to transport, and what effect do you predict this will have on global market prices of crude oil?
     
  9. Rybold

    Rybold globally warmed member

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    That's what SUV drivers say. Have you ever been to a national park? I have and they are something that I would NEVER destroy just so that I can fuel up careless SUV addictions.

    I fully agree with you that we need to get off of foreign oil for national security purposes, but destroying our national treasures to fuel SUVs is analogous to a drug addict selling his most precious family treasures to fuel his drug habit.

    Instead of destroying our national treasures, it would be a lot more sensible to increase CAFE requirements and drive more sensible vehicles than 5000 pound gas guzzling SUVS.

    You have the freedom to drive your 8mpg Dodge Viper? Try doing that back in the 1970s when gas was rationed and you had X tickets to claim your gasoline. Could it happen again? Yep. Iran started by blocking Europe - proof that in 2012 an oil embargo can still happen. You are free to drive your Viper - but in the name of national security, especially in wartime, the Federal Government can seize your Canadian pipeline and ration your gasoline - it will then be your freedom whether you put that gasoline in your Viper or Prius (or Leaf ;) )
    So what's going on TODAY? The government has foresight before an embargo occurs, and they are hiking the CAFE requirements and providing rebates and subsidies on PHVs and EVs.

    Disclaimer: I'm just speaking my mind here. I do not mean to offend anyone. If I have some facts wrong or you disagree, please politely tell me and I will respect you. Thanks. :)
     
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  10. WE0H

    WE0H Senior Member

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    How about using E100 and Bio-diesel rather than fuels made from oil?

    Mike
     
  11. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    IIRC it is about 700,000 bpd. If built it will transport both american and candian oil, hopefully with less environmental impact than trains or ships. The US currently imports 8.9 Million bpd, 4.5 Million bpd from opec. Since opec is a monopoly it likely will have no impact during normal times. During crisis's like the potential boycott of iran this summer, or the libyian revolution that just happend, or the previous opec oil blackmails it should help stabilize the prices. Long term contracts should also reduce the amount of money flowing out from north America during these spikes. This isn't a solution to long term prices going up, but insurance against strife in the middle east hurting our economy. The downside is more ghg from current consumption, but I believe this oil will be used with or without the pipeline.

    I agree completely. I would further like this put in a package of items that reduce consumption. We need both.

    Cafe standards are already in the process of being raised. Oil taxes would also help on the pull side when prices go down after this spike. Texas even has talked about state guzzler taxes for vehicles not meeting certain requirements to both decrease oil use and help with budget shortfalls - tax a suv support a school.:D
     
  12. WE0H

    WE0H Senior Member

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    You can't haul your Jetski's to the lake with your Prius so why have to pay higher taxes on a SUV that you need to haul those Ski's? Then there are those like me that live in the rustbelt and would never even consider driving a nice car in the winter so I drive my SUV all winter. Why tax the hell out of me just because I need to drive that SUV part of the year and when my family wants to go out on the lake in the summer? Sure it is foolish for some person to be driving a tank to the office alone and hauling nice person in the left lane to boot, but there is a real use for those tanks on the weekends and winter driving up north.

    Mike :tea:
     
  13. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    At the current rate of consumption conventional oil will run out in about 40 years. The price of scarcity, national security, and pollution is not priced into the oil. If you want to drive your SUV, you should pay the true cost with externalitities. I would like the taxes to rise slowly so people can change their behavior, but the country should not subsidize you and your family going out to the lake with your SUV:D That's kind of undemocratic, if you are rich those prices won't affect you as much, but its much better than a mandate saying no SUVs. No one needs to haul jet skis, but I support your right to run them if you want to do it. That does not mean I consider it a good use of a scarce resource.
     
  14. WE0H

    WE0H Senior Member

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    Maybe a few years down the road there will be a Prius SUV or some version that is capable of towing say a 2k pound load. That'd certainly be a good replacement for the current gasser SUV ;) I already run my SUV on 100% E85 to lessen my use of dino fuel and still can pull a solid 23.5 mpg on every tank. If the US would produce E100, I'd run that, but our corrupt government & oil companies want to run this country into the ground on dino fuels :mad:

    You know, there's a heck of an idea, screw using dino oil for fuels, manufacturer E100 and Bio-diesel, made in the USA from USA materials.

    Mike
     
  15. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Bio really cannot compete unless subsidized and use is mandated by gov't. USA is quickly becoming Saudi Arabia of gas, coal, and oil seems to be also huge if we can embrace Canada. However, there is a big push in Congress and states to give "ag" as much ownership of energy market as possible. To that extent there is a bio market.
     
  16. WE0H

    WE0H Senior Member

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    I don't understand why Bio fuels can't compete with dino fuels? E85 is 55 cents cheaper than 87 octane gas around here. That's a huge difference. Take the 15% gas out of it and would it be cheaper yet? My SUV runs excellent on E85 and so does a 2010 Prius :p

    Mike :tea:
     
  17. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    ...not sure how they price E85 re: taxes and all, and there may be periods when gaso price spikes that it is more break-even. But its a gov't controlled situation since 1990's so market may have distortions.
     
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  18. Rybold

    Rybold globally warmed member

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    If every vehicle on the road achieved 50mpg, we might have a shot at biofuels and all domestic energy. But in the meantime, mpg efficiency needs to increase.

    How many acres of corn would need to be grown to fuel the entire U.S. fuel consumption at current consumption levels? Would there be any acres left to plant food?

    On a side note, how many days out of the year do you haul jet skis to the lake? That could be a secondary vehicle, a rental vehicle, or borrowing a friend's vehicle, right? And Prius could be used for the other three hundred plus days of the year?
     
  19. WE0H

    WE0H Senior Member

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    Aren't there other plants that can be used for alcohol production? Is 100% of the corn plant used for alcohol production? Are there any byproducts of the corn left for other uses?

    Mike :)
     
  20. WE0H

    WE0H Senior Member

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    Ah you edited it :p We run the ski's maybe 3 or 4 times a summer. My Prius (when it arrives) is replacing my current summer car so it will never see winter. We have separate summer & winter vehicles because of the road salt. One thing the wife & I have considered is selling the ski's and buying a second Prius just for daily year 'round use rather than driving the SUV. I am at the point of max obtainable mpg with the SUV running it on straight E85 to get away from funding the crooks as much. We could start riding stand up ski's and use a small light weight trailer which a Prius could pull. That could eliminate the SUV. Our current ski's are sit downs and very heavy :(

    Mike
     
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