Gas Sippers Choices 2007, $3 a gallon is back

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(jayman @ Mar 12 2007, 08:04 PM) [snapback]404513[/snapback]</div>

Jay, it seems to me that it's largely irrelevant. Are these refineries competing with the one in shanghai? I suppose it's possible, but I seriously doubt it. If I'm off the mark here lemme know.

China is benefiting from the modern age and a lack of legacy infrastructure. We're tied to the past, and in the case of these refineries, their obsolescence doesn't reduce their competitive edge. That's the nature of things. We surpassed Europe and now we're getting surpassed by Asia. Someday, perhaps South America will be the new economic power bloc.

In the case of these refineries, where's the financial incentive to modernize? The gov't could force them to, I suppose, but they'd just pass those costs on to us. Maybe that's a good thing, maybe not. Personally, I'd like to see all refineries disappear to be replaced by something better.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(tripp @ Mar 13 2007, 07:00 PM) [snapback]405036[/snapback]</div>

Considering it would be cost-prohibitive to have finished petrochemicals – eg gasoline – imported from halfway around the world, that is entirely true. The “barrier to entry†of building a new refinery also keeps the established refineries safe from competition.

However, in my humble opinion, it’s borderline criminal that these ancient refineries continue to operate. There is the safety issue, and I seem to recall fairly routine explosions/fires in old refineries.

There is also the environmental impact of running such ancient equipment. Modern digital busses deliver extremely tight process/batch regulation, something you simply cannot hope to get from 4-20 mA analog loop or – God help you – 5-15 psi pneumatic loop control. As I stated, on average a *minimum* 30% process cost reduction from just the previous generation control equipment. Compared to 5-15 psi pneumatic control, the process cost savings can approach 50%

Here in North America, the oil companies could do a lot with that huge level of process cost savings. First of all, they wouldn’t have to go begging to Dubya to relax the already lax refinery emissions regulations, especially the various sulfur dioxide and hydrogen sulfide emissions. Second, the ROI to implement a new digital process loop is usually less than 5 years. Third, a total shutdown/restart due to something like a hurricane can be accomplished in one shift, not one month.

Of course, it could very well be that the oil companies fully believe in Peak Oil, and have reasoned why should they invest another penny in a process that will soon go the way of the carrier pigeon. In that scenario, it makes sense to operate a facility on the Production curve where fixed/variable costs are such that you maximize profit.

Why invest billions to save billions in perhaps 5 years, if the industry won’t be around in 5 years?

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(tripp @ Mar 13 2007, 06:00 PM) [snapback]405036[/snapback]</div>

In an industry straining to produce gasoline and other products, running at more than 85 % capacity, just when are they supposed to take refineries off line to modernize them?

Like donkey carts?

Harry

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(MarinJohn @ Mar 10 2007, 12:55 PM) [snapback]403361[/snapback]</div>

I have to agree with MarinJohn on this one....
I remember back when reg unleaded was .99 then one summer it went to 1.20... Funny how people forget that 1.20 to 1.50 was high gas prices...
With all the lies that the oil companies have fed us over the years, make you wonder if we are really having a oil shortage at all.... Too bad everyone can just not buy gas from the major oild companies for a year. this would quite possibly make them lower the price of gas...

 

Oh puleeze - I feel SO SORRY for those poor oil companies making TENS OF BILLIONS of DOLLARS in PROFITS and now they have to shut their refineries down for maintenance. BOO HOO HOO on you!

When are we going to stand up (or sit down) and stop taking it anymore???

Dave

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Earthling @ Mar 13 2007, 06:30 PM) [snapback]405027[/snapback]</div>

These are the same people that won't let wind mills go up here in Maine. Don't bitch when you run out of energy down the line. The enviromentalists make me want to scream when they won't let alternatives go online. The free market is still the best in the long run of keeping things in check. If you didn't have the big bad oil companies driving the prices up on oil, you wouldn't have people conserving. Let's not forget about when oil was $10 barrel, no one cried for the oil companies then. It works both ways. We have it way too good. Watch the whinners come out when Putin and Chevus show us what the alternative is to the free market. Sorry for the rant .

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Earthling @ Mar 13 2007, 06:19 PM) [snapback]405076[/snapback]</div>

I'm looking ahead to when they're not necessary. If we don't reduce our oil conception you won't be so smug when you're sitting in one.




<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Topgas @ Mar 13 2007, 08:28 PM) [snapback]405127[/snapback]</div>

Those "environmentalists" are usually the land owners near the ridge of bay where the proposed turbines would be sited.

I agree, you can't blame the oil companies. They're designed to make money and that's what they're doing. The fault is ours for putting ourselves in a situation where we get shafted by the vagaries of the commodities that we're addicted to.


<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Earthling @ Mar 13 2007, 06:19 PM) [snapback]405076[/snapback]</div>

Why did you quote me for this statement? Where did I ever say that refineries should be forced to modernize? :blink: I don't think there's any financial incentive to do it. If there were it would have already happened.

 

prices going up all over, in Olympia

Gasoline prices sneak up a quarter over weekend

Experts cite rising crude prices, seasonal demand
John Dodge
The Olympian

Gasoline prices at the pump have jumped about 25 cents a gallon in the past few days in South Sound, raising speculation that $3-a-gallon gasoline is once again on its way.

http://www.theolympian.com/101/story/70067.html

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Topgas @ Mar 13 2007, 09:28 PM) [snapback]405127[/snapback]</div>

It's the same situation here in New York State.

Now we have environmentalists, or are they just Luddites, who want to throw monkey wrenches into putting up wind farms for clean energy.

Let's have the ice caps melt, that would be preferable to some wind mills.

And if you people don't want new oil refineries, then quit driving gas-hog SUV's and monster trucks. You can't have it both ways! Over-consumption of gasoline, combined with not allowing any new refineries to be built equals high gasoline prices. Get used to it!

Harry

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Earthling @ Mar 13 2007, 08:19 PM) [snapback]405076[/snapback]</div>

You - and by "you" I actually mean ME - do it on the fly, in real time. You know, "hot upgrade." That can't be done in a potentially explosive/dangerous process, but the rest is done "bumpless" to the loop.

The modern digital busses have been around 10 years. The concept of "cold upgrade" is SO 1985, like Honeywell TDC 3000 running OS210.M1 over the LCN

An explosive process, like a tray system with pumparound, is usually taken offline once a month for decoking, especially if the tray has flappers. The 1-2 shift downtime is plenty to upgrade