GasBuddy Numbers Interpretation (Ca Carbon Tax)

I'll put this in the Enviro forum.
I am looking here at GasBuddy Gasoline Price data versus time, and inferring impact of California carbon taxes, which are not shown at the pump.

The graph below looks at USA Average Price, California Avg, and Roanoke, Va (Southern Virginia) versus time.

I actually live in NoVA (Northern Virginia) which is close match to USA Average price. New Jersey (my former home) is now also close to USA average as well.

So we can see Ca price now is about $4.70 vs. $3.19 in Roanoke vs. $3.38 USA average. Sheesh!

OK but lets now subtract out State+Fed taxes:
Ca is now paying net $4.70-0.854 = $3.85 before *pump* taxes

Let's compare to New Jersey because NJ and Ca are both 100% RFG (reformulated gasoline) which costs a little more, so by using NJ we cancel out that difference.
NJ is now paying net $3.38-0.6910 = $2.68 before *pump* taxes

The difference $3.85 - $2.68 = $1.17/gal I infer is mostly the Ca carbon tax as of 2021.

If we go back to 2017, we see California was only approx. 50 cents more than the USA Average, now we are closer to $1.50/gal more in Ca. inclusive of the (hidden) state carbon tax plus say 30 cents higher than average state pump taxes.

There could be other factors, NJ price is on low side due to favorable supply factors. But unless there are some new Ca price factors I am missing (pls advise) I assert the hidden carbon tax is now making a humongous price impact in Ca. A few years ago it was harder to see the impact of the carbon taxes.

 

As far as Ca RFG specs, historically say 10 years ago, there was the significant difference of ultra low sulfur in Ca and not elsewhere. But ultra low sulfur was later mandated for all RFG (and CBOB?) and should be phased in .mostly everywhere by now. So I would not be aware of a costly RFG difference today, I am feeling qualitatively, if you go back 5-10 years, the main difference was higher state pump taxes in Ca. Now we seem to have a new reality.

Of course, when we say gaso prices are highest in 10 years, part of that is Ca, Pa, and many states have substantially upped the pump taxes. NJ, Va have both gone from low gaso taxes to higher. The big part is crude oil price of course.

 

Good article! the carbon tax data they say is March-21. To my knowledge, the Ca carbon taxes are not itemized per gallon as shown. So somebody (Stillwater Assoc) has probably made an estimate. I wonder if accurate? If accurate, there probably needs to be another new factor to explain why Ca gaso price has skyrocketed more than other states.

 

Did you like the Google Doodle yesterday about fuzzy logic (the father of)?

 

Do you think that explains the difference for Ca?
I think Cramer (Mad Money) observed that Trump was bad for oil companies because he was so bullish on pumping oil, the supply got ahead of the consumption...prices dropped...profitability was issue. I do not blame Biden for current prices. Industry was hurting after the price drops pre-COVID and then COVID was killer and crude price went negative, of all things. So yes they are trying normalize. I think OPEC likes $80 crude as the ideal, but of course public wants lower price.

 

It looks like Ca carbon tax does not account for the whole price difference that Ca now seems to show. What might be interesting is avg USA pump price vs. crude price, which might show we are higher taxes now, so that is part of the "highest pump price in 10-yrs explanation".

 

According to New York Times, the recent Ca storms is part of the answer, so I will have to go back a few months on Gas Buddy to see if that is true.

"Here in California, hefty taxes have long made gas prices the highest in the nation. But fuel got even more expensive after an atmospheric storm pummeled Northern California last month.

The heavy rains inundated oil refineries with water, which affected gas production in the region, The Los Angeles Times reported. The subsequent cost increases then trickled south to the rest of the state."

Why Gas Prices Are So High in California - The New York Times