Global agriculture trends

Only top 3 grain crops here. UN FAO data. Might not hurt to have a general understanding of food situation.

All local yields continue to increase. New crop varieties, more fertilizer, pest control, and better water management contribute. It would be difficult to separate a +CO2 effect but this does not argue against it.

Global yield increases for maize (corn) in particular also driven by increased area under cultivation.

On per capita basis (thus including population growth) all but maize have gone flat. Important to mention that majority of global maize is animal feed now.

So, underfed or overfed, this is recent past. By 2050, 9 billions would represent 26% population increase. It seems quite unlikely that crop areas could increase that much This relates to deforestation and also available water. Local yields are still increasing and no strong reason to doubt they could continue. Recent 26% wheat yield increase took 18 years, so it is plausible.

One can be optimistic, assuming that crop improvements continue. Assuming that water availability and other climate factors do not impinge.

 

See the related:

Wheat yield loss attributable to heat waves, drought and water excess at the global, national and subnational scales - IOPscience

Where regional small variations is wheat yield are related to temperature and moisture variations. This is a hint that future crops ought to be 'selected' for a range of temperature and moisture variations. Deployed here and there as required.

A broader suggestion is based on 500 ppm CO2 in future because I don't see that not happening. Whoever builds CO2-controlling plant-growth chambers, I want them to get very rich. I I want them to sell to crop breeders who would also further vary temperature and moisture, and create libraries of seed types.

Those will be 'what's to eat' in our future.

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Already known from previous research is that crops grown under +CO2 offer less protein, and less protection against herbivores. As this is where we are going, this is what we should use science to counteract.

Making food is top priority. How very odd that arguing about climate futures could distract us from that.