Goldman Sachs - "Cars 2025"

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by KennyGS, Jan 6, 2018.

  1. KennyGS

    KennyGS Senior Member

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    Goldman Sachs | Cars 2025

    This makes sense to me. The question is which of the existing car manufacturers are aligning their future production towards these factors - with the same time line.

    I think that the majority of automobiles in 20 years will be autonomous, on-demand, and the minority of autos will be privately owned.
     
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  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    still not buying the fuel cell. the rest looks reasonable.
     
  3. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Do you have a more realistic suggestion of electricity storage and rapid refuel? One size does not fit all and the idea of all renewables being saved via battery warehouses doesn't seem realistic, especially considering the large diversity of need & distribution.
     
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i think bev's will be fine. i don't see any evidence that fuel cell vehicles will progress faster, or even as fast as bev's.
     
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  5. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    That vague of a response is considered dodging the issue, especially since it diverts discussion from storage to vehicle.

    Electricity must be stored somehow. The grid can only temporarily hold it. Storage overnight or longer needs something to contain it. Batteries can handle a sizeable portion, but the quantity needed is enormous... and takes away from the supply for vehicles. Hydrogen, whether used directly or converted back to DC for charging, is a means of supplementing that need.

    In other words, I used your response to draw attention to the bigger picture. Far too many don't notice there's more at play than just vehicles. That's a fundamental oversight. Storage is a huge consideration which must be addressed.
     
  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i'm not following you john (as usual) i thought the article was about automobile motivation power sources?
     
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  7. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Our local plug-in owners group strives to draw attention to needs of the entire transportation sector. Much of that focus lately has been on infrastructure, to the extent of us working with the local power-companies & equipment-providers to address issues and raise awareness.

    Electricity required to power our plug-in vehicles is a necessity; otherwise, usefulness of the vehicle is severely degraded... not a good selling point. Using things like battery-banks to offset dirty peak generators is one of many factors often not known, rare for anyone to even be aware of. Have you ever seen the duck curve?

    Also, think about how large recharging areas will be able to supply a spike of electricity demand. The 21st Century equivalent of a gas station may need to have an assortment of electricity sources to be able to keep up. Imagine 350 kW charging speeds. That's what people are expecting. Supply from power-lines may not be enough. Do you really want to have an unpredictable recharge time that varies significantly? A supplemental supply source is needed.

    In short, there's more to our plug-in vehicles than just the plug-in vehicles..
     
  8. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    then you should start a thread about that. you are confusing those here who are responding to the op's link.
     
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  9. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    It is not clear the article is talking about America per se.
    2025 is just around the corner, and USA trajectory is way behind the author's vision of 25% hybrids and plug-in sales.
    Might make sense for Japan, and maybe EU but for EU that assumes the EU car makers just sell hybrids.
     
  10. KennyGS

    KennyGS Senior Member

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    It appears to me that this article is looking at the statistics affecting automobiles world wide. I believe the largest population of car ownership has to be in the U.S. However, I also believe that the largest trends to drive the future of automobiles will come from outside the U.S.

    Cars have always been viewed as a very personal and substantial part of most people's lives. I believe this notion will start to change, and that cars will eventually be utilized like one would use an elevator, or pay for a seat at a theater. Owning a car, especially an old ICE will eventually become the exception.

    I think that my beliefs will begin to occur over the next several years. The first signs should start to be seen by 2025.
     
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  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    but where will they store the hydrogen?
     
  12. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Not sure I understand the question, H2 is fairly common product in commerce, stored in high pressure vessels.
    It can be made in a so-called H2 plant and then sent by pipeline or in pressure vessels.

    I do not see H2 as economic in the USA but many people said BEV was not economic. But if you mandate BEV and highly subsidize BEV and give people big tax credits for purchase , that made the BEV-too-expensive naysayers look wrong. They had failed to understand government forcing can change the cost equations substantially. If Japan and/or EU wants to promote fuel cell as an option, then we should not underestimate the power of gov't support.
     
  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    se post #'s 3, 5 and 7.
     
  14. hkmb

    hkmb Senior Member

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    This is kind of relevant to the thread.

    China banned the manufacture of 553 models of car last week.

    China bans 553 car models in fight against smog - Autoblog

    The list of banned cars (which I've only got in Chinese) shows that it covers a lot of different brands, including domestic brands and Sino-foreign joint-venture brands including those of Daimler-Benz, VW Group, PSA and Renault-Nissan. It only covers cars made in China, and it bans cars with high fuel consumption and with high particulate and NOx emissions.

    It's worth looking at in context: China has already said that that it won't allow the production of ICE cars after 2040, and it's generally expected that it will beat this target.

    Australia, of course, stopped production of all ICE cars in 2017. Mind you, it stopped production of all non-ICE cars too.
     
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  15. RCO

    RCO Senior Member

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    That's like eating your cake and still having it!
     
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