Good news? green house gasses reduce sahel famine

This looks like latitudinal broadening of tropical rainfall (West African Monsoon) driven by air T increases. They cite 3 previous studies finding the same patterns. So it is not quite revolutionary.

General broadening of tropics with higher T might be a general pattern. Poleward broadening of desert areas as well? They probably as plausible as wet -> wetter and dry -> drier.

We are always glad to hear of increased agric production. Also remember that there are some serious disease-carrying insects in African core tropics. It would not be good if they spread northward. I suppose people are looking at that right now.

 

Can't open the Bozeman Magpie. Read the wiki page though.

Locusts in general do the boom & bust thing (it got them in the Bible )

About killjoy, I pretty much reject that. I am looking for the bad hidden in the good and the good hidden in the bad, More or less in equal measure.

 

One of the authors had this to say:

An average day's rainfall during the summer rainy season is now around 0.3 mm higher than it was during the drought period. The study's co-author Prof Rowan Sutton, director of climate research at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) at the University of Reading, tells Carbon Brief:

"[The increase] may not look that large, but the recovery had been about a 10% change in the seasonal average rainfall. This is a semi-arid region and those changes are significant."​

. . .
Rain only comes to the Sahel in the summer months, as the tropical rain belt moves north from the equator and then returns south again. This migration is caused by the sun, Sutton says:

"The sun heats up the land more rapidly than the ocean, and that temperature gradient - the higher temperatures over the land than the ocean - causes the rain band to move northward."
​

His team's model simulations show that human-caused climate change is making this temperature gradient stronger because the land is warming up more quickly than the oceans. Sutton explains:

"It turns out that greenhouse gases do something rather similar - they also cause greater warming over land than over the ocean. [This] amplifies the normal seasonal cycle, causing the rain band to move a bit further north and intensify a bit."​

. . .
It's important not to draw too much from the new findings, says Sutton. For one thing, they only look at rainfall and conditions on the ground are more complicated in reality. He tells Carbon Brief:

"The notion of whether it's 'good' or 'bad' is a very simplistic framing. It will have had some benefits, but we're just looking at one variable."​

Since temperatures are rising globally, more moisture is being evaporated off the land. That's important when thinking about drought, Sutton says:

"That is leading to a higher drought risk regardless of changes in rainfall. And that will be something that's true across most of Africa … If you get more rain and it just evaporates really quickly then it's not much good for the crops, for example."​

. . .
Even if a recent return of the rains has offered respite to people in the Sahel, this doesn't mean climate change is "helping Africa" as a whole, Sutton says:

"It's very misleading to suggest that climate change is a good thing for Africa. There's no doubt that the overall impacts of climate change on Africa are very serious. Potential short-lived benefits will be greatly outweighed by longer-term costs."​

. . .
The bottom line, he says, is that a possible short-term positive impact on Sahel rainfall shouldn't be a reason not to act on climate change.

"One of the reasons that the issue is so serious is that the impacts are essentially irreversible on timescales of centuries to millennia. So we don't have the option of waiting to see whether the benefits might be a bit better than we fear."​

It's not all about what could happen in future either. The new study is a reminder that climate change is already having consequences, says Sutton:

"Our new study shows that our activities are not just causing problems for future generations. They are causing major changes now … I trust the governments meeting later this year in Paris will appreciate the gravity of this message."​

Source: Factcheck: Is climate change ‘helping Africa’?

The thing is when some scribbler tries to write a 'cute' story they often get the facts and data wrong. For the most part, few care but not here. After all, we're PriusChat:


Bob Wilson

 

Just quoting one of the study authors. He clarified that what some of the lay-press had inflated for entertainment. BTW, I was amused by this gem found in the comments:

Dodgy Geezer • 6 days ago

...Since temperatures are rising globally, more moisture is being evaporated off the land. ...

What I can't understand is that air temperatures are NOT rising globally.

[MOD. Remainder of comment deleted. Please do not make assertions without providing links to scientific evidence in support of your contention.] (BOLD added for emphasis RJW)
​

Bob Wilson

 

Peace my friend. My understanding is "Sutton" is one of the authors and his quotes read in the style of typical scientist (known a few in my family too!) For example, conversations with my uncle Robert Caswell were also enlightening and totally incomprehensible to lay people. The term 'parroting' is a little rough although some of the 'cut-and-paste' deniers fit the term.

The problem with a consensus view is it can sound like 'parroting' in the same way my physics teachers were consistent explaining the acceleration of gravity as '32 ft/sec**2'. Sometimes we just have to recognize that there is a different and hard reality of 'facts and data' that professionals live-in.

Bob Wilson

 

What is that MOD thing @7? Are we actually to 'back up' our assertions?

This would be the end of PC as we know it.

Ah well we can always post cute cat (sheep, bonobo, tardigrade) pictures

 

Just I was amused to see someone say 'you must provide facts and data.' <GRINS>

Bob Wilson