historical gas price indicates that it will take longer to recoupe cost difference

Discussion in 'Gen 3 Prius Main Forum' started by kuku5354, May 25, 2012.

  1. kuku5354

    kuku5354 New Member

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    I just notice when I am doing research on gas prices..i notice that gas price go up and down...range from 1.80 to 4.70.. that is in california... and so in other state..it is probably much lower.

    Gas Price Historical Price Charts - GasBuddy.com

    My point is, getting a hybrid car to save money on gas will probably take much longer than 4 years, because that estimate is based on 4 dollar a gallon.

    Meaning.. getting a hybrid car helps the environment alot more than saving money on gas. However there is not guarantee that gas won't hit 5 dollar a gallon on average, but history proves that it is probably unlikely.
     
  2. cwerdna

    cwerdna Senior Member

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    There's more to "payback" then just fueling costs. See Gas Saver Hybrids, Diesels vs. Standard Cars | Which Are Most Affordable? - Consumer Reports.
    I've posted something like this a bunch of times (to quote from http://priuschat.com/forums/environmental-discussion/104228-sign-times-2.html#post1482884, w/typos fixed):
    and from http://priuschat.com/forums/toyota-prius-plug-in/104280-what-infatuation-3.html#post1483768
     
  3. JimboPalmer

    JimboPalmer Tsar of all the Rushers

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    When I bought my 2009 Prius, I figured I would recoup my money in 5.5 years at $2.50 gas. 3.1 years later I am in the black, we did not keep $2.50 gas.
     
  4. kalome

    kalome Member

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    1.80? What part of California has $1.80 for gas at any time of the year?
    In the valley (Phx Metro) I can't remember the last time it was under 3 bucks.

    If you are comparing a hybrid to cheap economical cars like the smaller Hyundai, the lowest end Corolla or Yaris for example then yes it will take a very long time to break even, depending how much you drive .

    For me personally when I bought my Prius I didn't buy the car for the gas mileage ONLY.
    I really like the technology, helps the environment, great MPG, the unique look of the car, the features (smart key, push start) and I really like driving the car.

    IMHO - For people on a budget, in the market for a brand new car I would recommend a Prius C which gets excellent MPG and is very closely priced to a Corolla.
     
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  5. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney EditProfOptInfoCustomUser Title

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    Hi. Basically, if you look at gas prices they have been trending upwards. Global demand continues to rise despite falling consumption in the OECD. The drop from the peak of acouple of months ago is just due to decreasing tension in oil producing nations.

    Quite simply if you want to see grpwth you want to see rising gas prices. Think of the purchase of an efficient car as optimistic.
     
  6. Mario13

    Mario13 New Member

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    I get kind of confused when people talk about "breaking even" or "recouping their money". Most of the cars of similar size I looked at when buying were about the same price as the Prius. I calculated I would be saving about $2K per year on gas by buying the Prius. If you compare it to the Ford Fiesta, then you are correct...it will take you a while to break even. However, I don't consider the Fiesta to be in the same class as the Prius.
     
  7. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

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    Then just buy it on a five year loan. Then you are saving money from the first day.

    History proves nothing of the sort. Look at the number of record high prices in that history. That tells you how often you should expect a new record high. Plus, of course, historical prices don't predict future prices especially on a limited commodity in high demand.
     
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  8. mmcdonal

    mmcdonal Active Member

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    This argument only works when you consider the cost of a non-hybrid version of the SAME car, if that is where your head is at. Since there is no non-hybrid version of a Prius, the argument is specious.

    Instead, compare comparably equipped mid-size sedans, even with a similar horse-power level if you want to do this. The average mid-size sedan gets 24 mpg (up from 21 a few years ago.) I think the pay back is significant.

    I think this argument works better on poor hybrid implementations, like GM uses. Their hybrid system makes no sense based on fuel savings versus the cost of the system on a non versus hybrid vehicle.
     
  9. Codyroo

    Codyroo Senior Member

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    Will someone tell me the time it will take for me to recoup the expense of my leather seats? My ceramic window tint?

    If I were to buy a 2012 Mustang and opted for the V8 instead of the V6 engine, what would be my recoupe time?
     
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  10. jacknyc

    jacknyc Junior Member

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    When calculating payback periods, it's important to take into account that the premium you paid for the Prius when it was new leads to a premium when you sell the car.

    When you consider that 5 year old Prii are going for $10k and up, while equivalent Corollas, Hyundais, etc have depreciated far more over the same period, I would say the payback period begins on the first tankful after you leave the dealer.
     
  11. ProximalSuns

    ProximalSuns Senior Member

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    If you expand the chart to eight years, even with the drops in price due to economic recessions or big jumps due to war, gas prices have steadily increased.

    If you draw a regression line on the 8 year chart, it goes steadily up. Here is how the inflation adjusted price of gasoline looks over the last 60 years.

    [​IMG]
     
  12. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    So? I'm planning on driving much longer than just 4 more years. More like 40 years, unless relatives and doctors decide I need to give up driving earlier.
    History proves nothing about the future. But with local prices averaging $4.29 today, and still climbing (the West Coast is not currently participating in the price decline enjoyed by the rest of the nation), $5 gas is no more than one economic boom-bust cycle or international crisis away.
     
  13. ChipL

    ChipL Active Member

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    What most are missing in looking at the price of gas is that here in the US we are held captive by the refiners. There are many excuses from the refiners about reasons for lack of production.
     
  14. ProximalSuns

    ProximalSuns Senior Member

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    Gasoline prices pretty much track oil prices. The graph above is oil prices on international market.

    Yes the oil companies play games as refineries are "down for maintenance" to keep summer gasoline stocks low and prices high and winter fuel oil stocks low and prices high for each season. But those are seasonal fluctuations. The overall trend of oil prices/gasoline prices is up.
     
  15. kuku5354

    kuku5354 New Member

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    Thanks for showing the graph, but barrel of gas doesn't equate to price at the pump. Sometime you see 90 dollar barrel prices and the gas at the pump varrying from 3 to 4 dollars... There are many factor that governs the price of gas.. Supply/demand, barrel price, speculator, and the value of U.S dollars... one of the main reason currently, why oil barrel price goes up is because of the value of U.S dollar went down.... anyways... the graph that I show the average U.S gas price within this 8 years. Of course, if you factor in inflation, the price of gas isn't that high compare to 8 year or more ago...
     
  16. kuku5354

    kuku5354 New Member

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    but all you guys do have a valid point... but i trying to figure out what are the reason in getting a prius or hybrid. One have to compare mpg between cars that have equivalent engine strength. Prius doesn't have the power of a sedan so you can't compare that to it.. Also Prius is kind of bigger than a corolla, but if you have to compare between cars, corolla most closely resembling it. or can compare a camry to it's hybrid..about 10mpg difference..

    I am listing the rationale in getting prius is(so far from the info I gather)

    1)good for the environment
    2)very low depreciation rate(good for people who plan to hold the car for 3 years)
    3)save gas(dont' have to be piss when the gas price goes up and eventual payback)
    4)feel cool driving it
     
  17. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Baloney. You compare what you value, I'll compare what I value.

    I need a certain payload capacity, which the midsize Pruis hatchback has but most sedans lack.

    But I don't need the excess engine displacement and power that has bloated even faster than American arses over the past quarter century. Prius has more than enough power, I don't value more.
     
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  18. JimboPalmer

    JimboPalmer Tsar of all the Rushers

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    I too bought my Prius for cargo room, the floorspace compares well to small SUVs and station wagons.

    I have driven 2 cars with less than 70 HP*, so I know what under powered cars are like, the Gen 2 Prius is not under powered, it goes up all the hills I ever encountered without slowing down, it never makes me plan my pass for 5 minutes, the cruise control never drops out because it can't cope.

    You would have to show me something my Prius could not do well, before I would be willing to trade efficiency for power.


    *Mazda 808 Mizer wagon, Mazda GLC wagon, both with an almost 1.3 liter TC engine
     
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  19. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

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    If you are planning on selling your car before 3 years why do you care about saving money on gas? You are going to be throwing away far more on car value.

    Plan on keeping a car for 10 years and you will see that a Prius will save you thousands of dollars over any competition.
     
  20. PriusTom61

    PriusTom61 Junior Member

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    You all have valid points of view on recoup time, however I drive Prius to be prepared to the increase in fuel due to the uncertainty of availability of foreign oil. Our family has owned 3 since 2005. Each with very few maintenance issues (only oil, filters wiper and tires). Our Volvo cost me $900 for a tune up before trading it in for the v last month. (we won't mention the repair costs for the mini cooper or the saab) It addition, I am saving on co2 emissions and setting good example to my neighbors that a Hybrid vehicle has reliable roomy transportation that is forward thinking. Every time I get into my Prius or see other on the road driving one, It reminds me of making those positive responsible choices toward my community and my country.
     
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