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Hurricane Irma 2017

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Sep 7, 2017.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Looking behind Irma, we read that Branson and 'all other humans' have emerged safely on Necker Island. Qualifier seems important because he has (had?) an assortment of wildlife there. Which can be seem from downloading the resorts sales pdf. It also shows 'before' conditions of buildings, which are now apparently very damaged.

    Several other island are in very bad shape.

    St. Maarten Princess Juliana airport was long famous for low landings over a beach where tourists could experience thrills of jet blast. That airport now shows effects of sky blast and may not reopen soon.

    Mountains of Hispanola have not scraped Irma's bottom well enough. Eastern Cuba will be the last chance for serious friction.

    Nothing about risk for Florida has diminished. Nor can we yet be confident about whether storm center will be on west, center, or east side, but it will take a complete tour there. At least it will be a chance to see if building-code improvements since Andrew 1992 have been strict enough. Either way there is a lot more stuff in Florida than 25 years ago. Nothing more possible at this stage but to radiate best wishes.

    SpaceX managed a rushed launch of...whatever that thing is.

    Plenty of 'food' is available along Irma's track ahead. Image shows blue areas in Bahamas worth a mention. That water is certainly warm, but so shallow that there is very little heat content.
    Irma food 2017.jpg
     
  2. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Uh Oh, latest models show after Florida, 1/3d are headed to Alabama, North-Central. A dying hurricane can still spawn tornadoes.

    My hair is not on fire but it is 'interested.'

    Bob Wilson
     
  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Have heard a lot about 'vertical evacuations' where higher apartment floors provide safety against flooding. In Miami there are a lot of tall buildings and I expect this to happen. However if winds are strong enough, window mountings can fail and whoosh. Miami and other coastal metros are unfortunately likely to get such winds.

    Also in Miami their are 15 (?) construction cranes that were not dismantled. Plan is to 'guy' the towers and let the jibs weathervane. I guess that seemed like a good plan to somebody, but man oh man.

    Much discussion about 'European' models bringing storm center up the spine of the state, while 'American' models track along east coast. Both are very bad.

    It is also a moment to remember that forward motion adds to windspeed on the right side, but subtracts on the left side of center. With forward motion about 15 mph (this time), difference is 30.
     
  4. wxman

    wxman Active Member

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    #4 wxman, Sep 8, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2017
  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    At 27 degrees N (West Palm Beach), Florida is about 110 miles wide. Each spaghetto above refers to storm center of rotation. Currently Irma eye is about 45 statute miles in diameter. Hurricane-force winds (75 mph) extend to 60 miles east of center and 40 miles west of center.

    (those east and west distances are current and now northeast and southwest. storm will turn)
     
  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    a friend of a friend's 2m sailboat was in st maarten harbor. irma snapped the bare main mast in half, before destroying the rest of the boat as he watched from a building nearby.
     
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    On NOAA weather radar, it looks like a couple of the more distant rain bands are passing over the lower half of Florida. Over North Florida there is a front of a high pressure system whose back-side may steer Irma towards Alabama.

    Bob Wilson
     
  8. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace Senior Member

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    Better duck! :LOL:
    Seriously, keep safe.
     
  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Latest Irma wind history from NHC shows width of hurricane-force winds are similar to width of Florida. Near center of brown area spanning about 45 miles, winds are about 150 (the eyewall). They will drop as storm moves north through Florida, but how promptly is always hard to predict. Presumably down to minimal hurricane strength by N Florida border.

    Irma snake 2017.png
     
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    [​IMG]
    It begins.

    Bob Wilson
     
  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Looks like the front along the Florida east coast is dumping a lot of rain:
    [​IMG]
    In effect the rain to the east of Jacksonville will be 'eating' the hot water needed for Irma to follow the coast. That and the clockwise rotation of that high pressure system should steer Irma up the western coast and into Alabama/Georgia.

    Bob Wilson
     
  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    cat 3, 125mph, something anyway.
     
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I was at Costco this morning and you would have thought a hurricane was coming to Huntsville.

    Whatever is left will but I suspect weakly. Harvey ate the heat in the western Gulf; the Mexican storm is eating the Pacific tropical flow, and the high pressure systems will slow it enough to starve into wind and rain. No jet stream overhead, no drama.

    Bob Wilson
     
  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Ok, here are some recent images:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Bob Wilson
     
  15. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    will be interesting to see how far inland the storm surge moves the water in the flatland.
     
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  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Some recent satellite and sea surface temperature data:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    What surprises me is how the frontal rains in northern and east coast of Florida appear to be 'entrapped' by the hurricane. It makes sense but I was not expecting it.

    Bob Wilson
     
  17. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    6.5 million people ordered to evacuate. that is beyond my comprehension.
     
  18. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    700,000 more very recently told to evacuate. I suppose this is from Irma track forecast change from 'up the middle' to 'along west coast'.

    If east coast escapes strongest winds (and storm surgery) it will be very good for them. Later perhaps we can think about whether Miami continues to have a false sense of indestructibility.
     
  19. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    what are the ramifications of a west coast track for central fl?
     
  20. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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