Hybrid cars losing market share

Fuel costs will be going up, every time the economy expands. Then it squeezes the economy until we stagnate, and the prices drop again. That's the pattern we've been in since 2006, which is about the time of peak oil production.

I'm not saying we're headed for doom and gloom or any of the other scenarios typically associated with peak oil. But the new energy sources you mention (and they are real) are all more expensive than the old sources, and harder to produce in large volumes. Tar sands are only profitable with oil above $60/barrel (or more, I've heard different numbers). The enormously productive Bakken fields requiring horizontal drilling and fracking isn't much different. So the price pressure becomes quite relevant, unlike the 90's when we had cheap oil and great growth. Some people will argue Clinton did a great job, or the Republican congress or a Reagan/Bush Sr. legacy...nope, it was cheap oil (<$20/barrel from OPEC) that powered our economy then. And the era of cheap oil has ended.

 

Back to the topic, I've seen many more Prius lately than I used to. I love how they dramatize the whole thing:

Wait a minute. The hybrid market went from 2.8% to something a little over 2%. That's still more than all the Subarus sold in the U.S. I wouldn't call that "hardly anyone". Given the addition of great new small cars that get over 30 mpg at lower price points, I think that's still pretty good. And with the recovery from the earthquake, those numbers are probably going to go up for the remainder of the year, not down.

 

sure, but lets see the year end - both Prius and RX have been hard hit with tsunami shortages otherwise Prius would have higher sales than in 2010.

Except for Sonata/Optima which sell very well but have so many issues that i wonder about their long term viability, nobody else has got anything new on the market... so what exactly do they expect to sell? Ford hasnt done anything... nor has GM... germans dont have real hybrids, nor does chrysler... so how will sales grow? Honda had some weak efforts. How exactly will market share grow?

Only Toyota is investing a lot of money in hybrids and 10% of their overall 2010 sales will be hybrids...

If Toyota has the production, I am pretty sure their hybrid sales in US might even double next year... between full production of Prius, CT200h, RX450h, we will also see Prius PHEV, Prius v, Camry Hybrid and Prius c, which should sell more than 100k next year in US, bar component shortages. So thats going to be extra 1% on that graph.

 

You realize hybrids as a whole (just a couple per cent of total world sales) are just a fraction of market share, right? ..... and as the economy spirals down, that more expensive 'green' things (solar, hybrids, low e windows, insulation, led can lights etc) are the first to take a hit because those things are secondary to many people, right?

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This may explain why people are not buying hybrids, especially non-Toyota hybrids. Watch the second part of this story of this vehicle which starts at $110, 000K!

2011 BMW ACTIVE HYBRID 750 Li; Episode 734 – Mopar Modified Charger, 2011 BMW Active Hybrid 750 Li – Autoline Daily

 

I read that more and more hybrids are coming in in the next year. Hopefully the gas prices will begin to take the toll on people though many still believe they have to own "big" cars. Some use ethanol blen to help their burdens of the gas they burn...

 

Just you wait. Prius v and c are coming out.

 

Showroom traffic, new Camry with best in class mileage, gas and hybrid, Prius v, and 60mpg Prius c in January?

 

Slow global economies and gas prices, and reviews of hybrids other than Ford's and Toyota's are not that impressive. When people watch videos like this and the other posted in #25 during their car research, they are unlikely to buy any hybrids at all.

Consumer Reports Video Hub - Cars - Hybrids & Alternative Fuel - Hyundai Sonata Hybrid

 

I agree that the 3.50-3.75 is currently the norm. I mostly used that range as an example. I remember when we hit 2.00/gal and everyone was freaking out about it, then after a few months it died out.

I could believe that about the recessions caused by energy prices. Society is so closely tied and run by those energy sources, that when prices go up, it's not a simple single bill increase, it's an increase across several areas. The best thing to do is to be prepared for it.

 

I think what they have to measure here is performance of hybrid sales vs other cars in Toyota lineup . Because honestly it is only Toyota right now that is fully invested in hybrids... rest are just playing the PR game (Honda, Ford also but much smaller degree).

 

I never wanted a huge pickup (given that I am not a farmer, rancher or construction contractor, who really need them), but when Humvees were first made commercially available as Hummers, I thought "Cool. I could go ANYWHERE with one of those."

 

I agree the real Hummer was a cool vehicle, and I had no problem with it on the road since price kept the numbers low. It's a shame GM watered down the name with reskinned Chevys.

 

Just to confirm the current trend

Hybrid vehicle sales slip in September 2011; Prius tops chart again *UPDATE

 

Cyclo- ...have never heard the words "long term contract" and "oil" in the same sentence, what are you in reference to? Coal, yes, utilities I have heard have long term term contracts.

 

Agreed. The number we need to look at is %hybrid cars on the road. Short term trend is well, short term trend.

 

I think the advances in diesel and petrol ICE cars is what is affecting hybrids, hybrids no longer offer HUGE economy benefits, especially in the EU/Australian markets. Plug In Hybrids will help make hybrids popular and sufficiently more efficient than ICE cars.

 

I think it's the "dope factor". If the price of fuel falls 5 cents, the new car buyer goes for a Chevy Suburban. I guess the shear weight of the vehicle justifies the cost. People don't see value in economy. I don't even want to start on the short sighted decisions being made by the American Public and Industry or for that matter Government. We seem to be a people cursed by dementia.

 

here is some info on oil pricing: Understanding Long Term Oil Pricing - Seeking Alpha

as I recall reading, before deregulation the spot market was alot smaller %-wise then it is now.

The whole oil prices went up 30% - gas prices go up 30% is still a fallacy though, as most of gas is still made from long term oil.