I'm Glad and It's ABOUT TIME...

I'm shocked!

Radio, television and the Internet never lied to me before!

 

Don't be naive.The big oil players know that their fields are running out. They will be the first to diversify into viable alternatives. Eight dollar a gallon gas will not make them rich - a failed world economy will hurt everyone. Look what the cigarette companies did. LNG will be the next energy economy and then what....hydrogen, biomass, nuclear power, renewable power, or.....? Just figure that big oil will own a healthy share of whatever it is.

The only real question is when will oil be too expensive to produce. Tou can bet that the cheapest altrernative will be backed (owned) by today's energy purveyors.

 

The oil companies are going to milk the oil until it is all gone. Then move on to somethign new. Shell already has some hyrdogen refillling stations.

 

I think that it depends on the price of batteries. It appears that adding 2 more batteries to the prius should do it. I think that we have already gathered the low hanging fruit as far as battery technology has gone. To get higher power densities we will probably need to go to flywheel technologies, or find a better way to store hydrogen.

I have heard that we don't use anywhere near the capacity of most solar cells so if we has some way to concentrate the sun we would only need a few of them with a good cooling system, so the cost of solar would be greatly reduced. The only real question is will thermal pollution still be a problem.

 

I was with you until the end of the 3rd sentence. You and your buddy conspiracy people will never admit that WE THE PEOPLE get what we want. It isn't the "close ties to OPEC", or "The big 3" that will hold this achievement back...it is the common man's desire for PERFORMANCE, not economy. For SIZE, not economy. For BRAGGING rights, not economy.

I believe that cars are already capable to get over 100mpg....but if no one wants them, then what's the point. So, will it happen, YES, but when, I think 7 yrs is too short.

I have seen some dumb laws, but I highly doubt anyone will pass a law limiting mpg. Now, will they pass a law that limits imports, or certain types of cars (that, by the way, includes some high mpg)..yes...and you guys will scream that "the big 3", "opec" etc. is behind it.

 

Gm is a good example of fighting tooth and nail.

 

OK, first off that thing looks like some kinda amphibian wearing one of those WWI German helmets. Looks like the spike fell off though.

Seven years... it's hard to say. I think it would be totally feasible to make it happen with a mass produced vehicle. All of the ingredients are there now with the new nanotech batteries. I don't think that energy density has been increased substainially yet but the 100X improvement in discharge/recharge is a major coup. Now that auto company's like Toyota, Honda, and Ford have good experience with putting hybrids together I think that the time to market will be much better. The only real question is what's going to happen to oil prices over that time. As Schmika (nice avatar, BTW) pointed out, until people change their buying habits hybrids will continue to be niche. There's no way that the oil companies can stop this from happening. These companies aren't dependent on gov handouts for the research. $$$ is the fuel driving the engine of development. If money can be made producing these machines then it's gonna happen. Period.

 

For the history of the Messerschmidt car go here.

 

Thanks, I took the photo (just got the tags) but, being a neophyte in photo editing, MysterySquid volunteered to help me set it up. Oooops, I hope all the other neophytes don't start knocking down his door.

 

I threw out Plug-In hybrids, beacause substituting one form of energy for another is just a shell game, unless you count it all. Miles per KWH total.

If you're talking Fuel only hybrids, for me as an engineer the numbers don't add up. You're talking double the overall efficiency.

At least half of the energy sinks in a car are outside the control of engineers, so with the things they can change you're talking quadruple the efficiency at least.

I don't think that kind of improvement is in the cards. It would require much more than just engine technology.

I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see it for a Prius size/weight vehicle.

 

100 MPG by 2012: Yes - Do the Math

Let's see, Bush is gone in 2 years and there's a backlash to the energy companies running the country (2007), Detroit realizes they've lost their protective lobby in Washington now that gas prices are approaching $5 a gallon (2008), three years for GM, Ford and Chrysler to "rush" reasonably priced 50 MPG Hybrid and, or Hydrogen cars into production (2011), add a year for the former "big three" to work out all the recalls (2012); that ought to be plenty of time for everything coming out of the far-east to be well over 100MPG.

 

I don't actually think we will see 100 mpg hybrids for one primary reason, cost effectiveness and the prinipal of diminishing returns. There is little cost advantage, even at $5/gallon to go from 50 mpg to 100 mpg. Conisder if you drive 15,000 miles per year, and gas costs $5 per gallon. Your annual fuel cost is:

Vehicle Annual
mpg fuel cost
25 $3,000
50 $1,500
75 $1,000
100 $750

There is not much to be saved by going beyond 75 mgp, and the sacrifices in weight/power to get there won't be worth saving $500 or so per year IMHO.

 

Not so. They'll just raise the prise of gas to maintain their profits.

Historical analogy:

When the potato came to Ireland everyone thought it was a great boon, because the desperately poor Irish people would be able to afford to buy more food. But what actually happened was that the ready availability of cheaper food allowed the ruling class to lower wages. The benefit of cheaper food went all to the employers, not to the workers.

In the short run, early adopters of a more effecient car reap the benefits in lower total cost for gas. But in the long run, the ready availability of more efficient cars will allow the gas companies to charge more for gas. The benefits will go to the companies, not to the drivers.

But I think a 100 mpg car in 7 years is too close to call. Maybe, maybe not.

BTW, someone did the math, and covering the roof of a Prius with solar panels would not provide enough energy to help hardly at all. Better to cover the roof of your house and then plug in a proper PHEV.

 

oh too funny you didn't write that, conspiracy, what conspiracy. yea I think the technology can do it but its all a matter of the people invested in money investing in alternatives or they will fight to keep us in this mess. And isn't honda working on hydrogen?

 

There are high-mileage cars, but they are tiny or super-lightweight. I suspect that the Prius is the best that can be done with 2004 technology on a full-size, full-featured road-worthy car.

But technology advances ever onward, and they'll do better in 2008 or 10, and better yet in 2020, etc. I suspect that trying to predict the actual numbers for specific dates is pointless, unless you have inside information from cutting-edge research labs, which are likely to keep their developments secret until they're ready to patent them and go to market.

 

Seems like it on the surface, I agree. But nowhere near as simple as that.

When I "substitute" electricity for gasoline in my Rav4EV, it travels ~130 miles on the energy equivalent of one gallon of gasoline. NOT a shell game, but a viable way to use energy more effectively. Plus, my EV miles don't pollute at all since I generate my own fuel on the roof of my home. NOT something you can ever do wtih a gas car. Electricity energy and gasoline energy are NOT equivalent by any relevant metric.

Put gasoline in the tank, and throw about 75% of the energy away before it hits the pavement, plus add pollution in the production and consumption of the product. Put electrons in the tank, and throw away only about 10% of the energy before it hits the pavement and have the option of making that fuel cleanly, and ALWAYS consume it cleanly.

 

No question. I'm not sure why we're setting our sites so damn low! We could have 100mpg plug-in hybrids tomorrow if "we" wanted them. And yes you have to include the kwh's etc... but adding kwh's to the tank is NOT equivalent to adding more gasoline! If we want to play that game, let's total up the amount of electricity USED TO MAKE the gasoline! Suddenly, the part you plug in is free again, as it uses no more electricity than was used to make the gasoline you are replacing.

What amazes me is that we're still burning gasoline in these "hybrids." We had viable battery electric cars 15 years ago... and now we're excited about 50mpg? Our Rav4EV gets better than 100mpg GGE (gallon of gas equivalent) every damn day. And it was designed in the early 90's.... with battery technology to match.

Seven years? It took the big manufacturers under three years to put battery EVs on the road when they "had to."

If burning less gas gets you all excited... imagine burning NONE.

Our electric vehicle is driven seven days a week. The Prius is driven about twice a month. And the only way I impact the grid is to produce more electricity than I use. My car uses less electricity than my neighbor's pool! And about the same amount as an average gasoline car.

Whew. End of rant. Time for bed. I'd love to stay and play, but I'll be away for the weekend - so have at me for free!

 

The more I learn about BEV's like the EV1 and RAV4EV the more annoyed I get at the manufacturers. It makes me sad everytime I look at the pictures of crushed EV1's, it has to be a tougher sight to bear having owned one.