1. Attachments are working again! Check out this thread for more details and to report any other bugs.

I'm thankful Climate Change is a myth!

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by Stev0, Nov 25, 2011.

  1. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2009
    13,527
    4,057
    0
    Location:
    Austin, TX, USA
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    N/A
    When I was first there a few of us had a discussion that Europe/US would need to help get the chinese some technology to reduce the problem. Now that the euopean economy is a wreck, the US is barely out of recession, and the chinese loaning everyone money, I don't think there is much of a solution. One thing is clear though, there can be no significant ghg reduction without china involved.

    Thanks, I didn't mean to imply it was constant. I quoted a broad range of estimates and said 40cm was likely in this century. The last century had a rise of about 15mm iirc. No need to identify causation to estimate sea level rise, but somehow the TCEQ redacted the portion of a study of threats to Galveston, which is threatened by sea level rise and hurricanes.
     
  2. Stev0

    Stev0 Honorary Hong Kong Cavalier

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2006
    7,201
    1,073
    0
    Location:
    Northampton, MA
    Vehicle:
    2022 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    I was going to link to this, but nothing will ever stop deniers from denying, even if they were to find themselves literally melting like in the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark, so I won't.
     
  3. spiderman

    spiderman wretched

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2009
    7,543
    1,558
    0
    Location:
    Alaska
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    II
    No sensationalism there... :rolleyes:

    Well, nice knowing you Stev0
     
  4. Stev0

    Stev0 Honorary Hong Kong Cavalier

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2006
    7,201
    1,073
    0
    Location:
    Northampton, MA
    Vehicle:
    2022 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
  5. DaveinOlyWA

    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2004
    15,140
    611
    0
    Location:
    South Puget Sound, WA
    Vehicle:
    2013 Nissan LEAF
    Model:
    Persona
    just saw NBC nightly News. 2011 goes done as the most expensive and deadliest weather year in history. 12 Billion dollar events breaks record of 9 Billion Dollar Disasters set in 2008. more people died this year than any on record and Climatologists states GCC is the culprit and its gonna get worse.

    but then again, its just the nightly news.
     
  6. spiderman

    spiderman wretched

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2009
    7,543
    1,558
    0
    Location:
    Alaska
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    II
    Looking forward to 2012! Happy new year.
     
  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    8,973
    3,501
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    The various news outlets summarize what was decided at the Durban conference. Sometimes adding their own 'local flavor' :)

    I had hoped to get the full text from searching here

    Simple Search Documents

    under COP17, but it seems that they are not up yet.

    If anyone else has found a link to the actual agreed text (s) I'd like to know that, thanks
     
  8. hyo silver

    hyo silver Awaaaaay

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2005
    15,232
    1,562
    0
    Location:
    off into the sunset
    Vehicle:
    2004 Prius
    Model:
    N/A
    Is this what you're looking for?

    More is available at the UN site.
     
  9. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2009
    13,527
    4,057
    0
    Location:
    Austin, TX, USA
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    N/A
    Honestly its really bad reporting. The Bhola cyclone killed half a million people in 1970. It seems to me that this year numbers are not close. Millions of people died in famines in verious years recording started in 1600s.

    Studies have shown insurance damages are increasing mainly because more expensive stuff is being built in harms way. I'm not sure how GCC is forcing people to move and build in harms way, but maybe those interviewed Climatologists can explain that to me.

    climate change may be making things worse, but 2010 is nowhere near the worst weather year.

    I don't agree with everything here, but this has the stats for how much weather related deaths have decreased over the last century.
    http://thenewamerican.com/tech-main...obal-warmingq-extreme-weather-deaths-nosedive
     
  10. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2008
    11,627
    2,530
    8
    Location:
    Southwest Colorado
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius v wagon
    Model:
    Two
    ^^ blah, blah, blah.

    Countries will spend themselves into destitution coping with the worse of natural disasters because a picture of a suffering child is put up on TV, but AGW mitigation will continue to be underfunded 1:1000 because graphs do not have emotional appeal (to most), denialists cannot cope with reality, religious types are in la-la land on the way to hell, and the vast remainder of the populace are ostriches.
     
  11. icarus

    icarus Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2007
    4,884
    976
    0
    Location:
    earth
    Vehicle:
    2007 Prius
    Model:
    N/A
    Then how do you explain the difficulty I recently had getting insurance (any type, not flood or hurricane) on a house 150' from the water in South Portland ME?

    Hint:

    The reason given, by a number of different underwriters was that due to increased tropical weather events affecting the NE coast, coupled with documented sea level rise, they would not write policies in this particualr neighborhood.

    I was finally able to get a fire and liability policy, which was fine, as we know the house was close to the water, and the basement gets wet at high tide events. The great irony is I can get FEMA (read subsidized) flood insurance cheap!)

    Insurance companies have it dialed,,, they know that global warming is going to (is!) cost them money. They also don't spend a lot of time bickering about the "cause" since it doesn't matter to them.

    We know the cause,, we just chose to ignore it, until something happens to us!


    Icarus

    PS I would like to see some citation to the statement that " studies have shown,,,,"
     
  12. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2009
    13,527
    4,057
    0
    Location:
    Austin, TX, USA
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    N/A
    Galviston has been rebuilt again with federal insurance encouraging people to rebuild in harms way.

    well no, they still have high exposure in harms way. You can get insurance at your place where companies know you are in harms way. Galviston was first destroyed in 1900, its about 10' above sea level and in huricane paths. There is much more expensive property in the last disaster than the early ones. No global warming needed. You would have been in harms way at that location in 1850 as you are today. You clearly stated that you can get insurance. Federal insurance is one of the biggest payers in costal disasters, why would you exclude it as not insurance? If you think GCC will kill your house in Maine why don't you move out of harms way?


    Well you "know the cause" if you ignore the data. You own property in harms way, and if it is damaged it is your fault. I'm sure you want to blame GCC, but with or without it, it is you that are doing the risky behavior. Natural disasters will occur, we can predict where its most likely then build there
    Here is just one of 100s of studies published world wide, and the sentiment will be in the next IPCC report, replacing the non-peer reviewed insurance company research put in a previous version.

    NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - Increased Hurricane Losses Due to More People, Wealth Along Coastlines, Not Stronger Storms, New Study Says

     
  13. icarus

    icarus Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2007
    4,884
    976
    0
    Location:
    earth
    Vehicle:
    2007 Prius
    Model:
    N/A
    ^ The one thing we agree on, is that if my property is destroyed by any natural event that involves water,, I am on the hook. I would not go so far as to say it's "my fault" except in the broader sense that I may not have done enough to over come the denial communities rejection of AGW!

    I choose not to buy FEMA insurance for two reasons. First, I don't believe that I should get subsidized coverage at the public expense, when I am at some manner contributing to the pubic cost by having a house in what is becoming a flood zone.

    Second, I have made a personal financial calculation that tells me I can absorb the likely loss. Now one could argue that the second influences the first,, and I would not object to that argument.
     
  14. hyo silver

    hyo silver Awaaaaay

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2005
    15,232
    1,562
    0
    Location:
    off into the sunset
    Vehicle:
    2004 Prius
    Model:
    N/A
    Will there ever be an 'atheist clause' in insurance policies that provides for coverage against so-called 'acts of god'? ;)
     
  15. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2009
    13,527
    4,057
    0
    Location:
    Austin, TX, USA
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    N/A
    You can repeat the problem is denialist, but this contradicts the facts. Portland is at risk, even if US and China cut ghg emissions 70% portland would still be at risk. If you didn't speak up locally and allowed politics to make FEMA clasify portland safer than it is, you are part of the problem. Maine politics, as other coastal states is creating the problem.

    FEMA backs off Portland Harbor high-risk zoning | The Portland Press Herald / Maine Sunday Telegram
    Its historic, we need to keep increasing property in harms way seems to be your local politics.

    Even you don't have government insurance it will be counted in the risk. Good for you not taking the subsidy, but that does not mean you are not making weather riskier by owning in an area likely to be flooded.

    I am arguing that you are part of the problem in continuing to own property in harms way. I am not arguing that you are a free rider. I believe in freedom, and if you choose to live there, I support your choice. But don't whine about GCC making your home destruction more likely. It is the fact that you own a home in a place likely to be damaged that is the problem. I buy wind electricity, drive a prius about 12K miles a year, and have an efficient home. That does not mean that I do not contribute to ghg, but I do contribute much less than those politicians blaming warming instead of encouragement to build and live in harms way for destruction. They need to explain the data and not just role their eyes and say its warming. I don't think its denialist at all to point out that ghg may actually be reducing the number of huricanes, or that higher property values in harms way are responsible to increased costs of huricanes. Sea levels are rising, and this can be mitigated, or we can choose to build more in areas and increase property destruction or we can choose to move people out of harms way.

    That does not mean I do not think that there should be an international effort to reduce ghg, but clearly if your house is burning down because you didn't put in smoke detectors, its not the time to blame your neighbors smoking worse increasing the risk of cancer in health care costs.
     
    1 person likes this.
  16. icarus

    icarus Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2007
    4,884
    976
    0
    Location:
    earth
    Vehicle:
    2007 Prius
    Model:
    N/A
    If you are talking the strict dollars "lost" due to coastal weather events (in North America at least) you are probably statistically correct. That however doesn't look at the bigger issue, of loses that are not in N. America and those that are not insured and indeed world wide loses are probably not be quantifiable. What is the value of rice farm land in Thailand? What is the value of loss of life in Bangladesh?

    I would absolutely agree that sea level rise will in all likelyhood affect my house in S.Portland, but the mere fact that the house exists does not increase the Sea level! Arguing that people ought not live in flood zones is perfectly logical, but unless that flood zone is artificially controlled via levees for example the people living in these zones are not responsible for the flooding. I grant you that people living in flood zones increase the cost of any given flood(s) but they don't create the flood!

    What we are arguing about is the cause. Clearly you have your opinion on the causes of climate change, and I err on the side that even in the unlikely event that GHGs don't cause climate change, changes that reduce GHG emissions is the smart thing to do. They come at little real world cost, and pay multiple benefits. What's not to like.

    Once again, I suggest you go to the high arctic or to the Indian Ocean island sometime to see for yourself the real world effects of climate change, man caused or not!

    Icarus
     
  17. DaveinOlyWA

    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2004
    15,140
    611
    0
    Location:
    South Puget Sound, WA
    Vehicle:
    2013 Nissan LEAF
    Model:
    Persona
    i believe the reference is for US deaths ONLY, world wide there have been several dozen Billion dollar weather disasters that happen every year. nearly every major Hurricanes, Cyclone, etc. fact is, weather events have suffered the effects of inflation along with the rest of us.
     
    1 person likes this.
  18. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2009
    13,527
    4,057
    0
    Location:
    Austin, TX, USA
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    N/A
    That is what I was refuting from the news story, and this is evidenced world wide. At least we can agree on this point.



    Which is why my first refutation of most deady weather year with the bhola cyclone, half a million dead in 1970. People like gore that say global warming is causing these things don't look at world wide statistics or the amount of people and property in harms way, or inflation. If you look at statistics be it in farm land, people, crops, etc 2010 doesn't come close to the worst weather year. I would count lives as lives and not value a life in say NY higher than one in dhaka.

    Absolutely correct, but the people living there are responsible for the loss of life and property. If no one lived in portland would anyone die from car accidents there?

    Didn't say they did, that's why I popped up the noaa web page that also said that huricanes are not increasing, but huricane damage is. Similar reports are available for tornados, anouther darling of politicians, and the press. Flooding someplaces may be caused by warming, or as it has happened in china recently from man changing the course of rivers. I don't think if a place is prone to flooding and you build on it, you have any one to blame but yourself.

    Wth? No I am saying that using corrupt statistics about weather damages and purporting them to be climate change related is wrong. You are arguing we must believe all the mumbo jumbo from the belever universe, and you throw away the real statistics of how much of weather damage is caused by warming. If you move the idiots out of the flood plane or the hurricane zone they have a much smaller chance of losing their house. Is that hard to understand. If you stop ghg completely these houses and factories and resorts will still get destroyed like they did throughout history.

    The company that I consult to in portland is sappi. They recently have been doing initiatives to reduce ghg in publishing. Nothing wrong with that, I was part of the earlier idea. Now it would be a giant leap into the scientific abyss to believe the new sappi efforts will stop portland from flooding, which it seems like you believe. The first time I came to portland I could smell the paper plants.

    If you dive you will be able to see sea level has been rising (since the last ice age btw). I have been on sumatra and seen the devestation of the tsunami. I've breathed the polluted air of china. That doesn't make me believe that ghg are causing these weather disasters. Have you traveled and talked to the people about the change in land use?
     
  19. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2009
    13,527
    4,057
    0
    Location:
    Austin, TX, USA
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    N/A
    +1
    Thanks, I think they just didn't look far enough back or got it wrong. THis is 2010
    NWS Weather Fatality, Injury and Damage Statistics
    But the Galveston hurricane in 1900 killed 5000 people all by itself, dwarfing the 480 tragic deaths last year. I'm not sure what the peak year was. 2005 with katrina damage what the most expensive year for weather in the United States.
     
  20. ryogajyc

    ryogajyc Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2004
    985
    165
    0
    Location:
    Reseda, CA
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Advanced
    I believe you have reached the wrong conclusion because you have oversimplified the problem. It is important to note that the ice is freshwater, while the ocean is saltwater. Saltwater is denser than freshwater, so freshwater ice displaces less saltwater than freshwater. Therefore, when the freshwater ice melts in saltwater, the ocean level rises.

    Melting of Floating Ice Will Raise Sea Level