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Impending Record U.S. Crude Oil Production

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by iplug, Jan 29, 2018.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Source: California Wildfires Emitted a Year's Worth of Car Pollution in Less Than a Week - NBC News

    OCT 13 2017, 3:47 PM ET
    The wildfires in California released as much air pollution in the Bay Area in a matter of days as motorists in the state normally emit in a year, drastically reducing air quality and creating an immediate health threat.

    People most vulnerable to breathing problems, such as the elderly or those with asthma or pulmonary disease, are most likely to be affected, experts say, but healthy people are at risk, too.

    A half-marathon in San Francisco was canceled because of air issues, and the NFL was considering moving Sunday's game between the Oakland Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers from Oakland.
    . . .

    Bob Wilson
     
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  2. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Vehicle pollution emissions have been going down in Los Angeles but emissions from fires in at least the last year there have been way up. This markedly increases not only particulate pollution but also ozone.
     
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  3. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Yep, exactly. It isn't the cars, but southern california was up in 2016 also.... Will california reduce over development, you know the reason there is so much damage from wildfires if they can't blame big oil? Commentary: There’s a way to reduce the wildfire toll. We won’t like it. | Reuters
    Will they take the other steps that have nothing to do with global warming (yes over development with resulting wildfires leads to more agw).
     
  4. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Well that's disappointing about Ca. ozone not going down...I am thinking trends in Northeast better as coal use has declined. I really see no smog at all here in DC, we used to have it bad in southern NJ due to being at the "end of the pipe" getting everyone else's emissions.

    California has no upstream sources from westerly neighbors, and strict regulations, no coal. hard to fix that prob.
     
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  5. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    No, California ozone is going down markedly and has been for many years. Check out the State of the Air, American Lung Association link a few posts back. One or two year blips in the last couple years don't make a trend and are due to increased fires, weather, etc. specific to that year.

    For example, here is ozone with the latest data available:

    Sacramento Ozone.png
    Los Angeles Ozone.png
    Placer Ozone.png
     
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  6. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    iplug - you didn't see my la times piece. Unhealthy ozone days are up in southern california in 2016 and 2017. Over 100 days is awful, and they were 145 last year.
     
  7. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    I did. You did not see my other posts. Even the chart you posted showed that was a 2 year blip in a much longer and significant downtrend.

    As you can see from the post you reference and the others in this thread, ozone and particulates have been going down in Los Angeles for years (and California at large). We should not take 1-2 years attributable to fires and/or weather or even for any unknown reason to ignore the larger trends.

    I've spent most of my life in California and most of that in Los Angeles. I promise you the air has also become visibly much cleaner in a dramatic way.

    Here is a good video for those interested into the history of California smog developments and controls:



    Not bad except some mention of fool cells.



    Here are longer Los Angeles ozone trends; not sure the last two years even register in the noise:

    [​IMG]
     
    #47 iplug, Apr 5, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2018
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  8. HPrimeAdvanced

    HPrimeAdvanced Senior Member

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    Also, cars, industry, oil refining, and generally increasing human activity coupled with huge losses of forests, sea plankton, etc., all contribute to global climate change, yielding more extreme climate events. These climate events, currently our severe droughts in California, and the Southwest, lead to more wildfires and bad air. Oh by the way, Houston and Dallas are among the top 10 smoggiest cities in the U.S., although they don't have the same geographical handicaps that Southern California does. The Texas cities have a bit over 6 million population each, while number 1 Los Angeles basin supports over 18 million. That's why strict anti-smog laws are a must.


    Posted via the PriusChat mobile app.
    AChoiredTaste.com
     
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  9. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Now that California has made such dramatic improvements in pollution over a few decades, there is evidence that our upstream westerly neighbors, unless addressed, will make further reductions very challenging. Fortunately our neighbor China has started addressing the problem so as they improve their dire pollution situation, they will also improve ours:

    Smog In Western U.S. Starts Out As Pollution In Asia, Study Says : The Two-Way : NPR

    ACP - Abstract - US surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980 to 2014: quantifying the roles of rising Asian emissions, domestic controls, wildfires, and climate

    China Exports Pollution to U.S., Study Finds - The New York Times

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.zmescience.com/ecology/environmental-issues/about-29-of-san-franciscos-pollution-comes-from-china-42334/amp/
     
  10. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Yes iplug those graphs above look better improvements...
     
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  11. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    hmm
    Larger trend - over a hundred unhealthy days in 3 msa's in southern california. From your chart of one of those MSA's - LA - trend is no significant improvement in the last 2 decades, that blip up in the last 2 years is a repeating pattern. There was significant improvement from the 1960s to the 1990s. The Bakersfield area now has the most polluted air in the country, I guess LA can feel good about not being number 1 right now. From your included chart.

    [​IMG]
     
  12. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    I'd be curious if removal of E10 ethanol mandate could help by reducing VOC's or by reducing diesel use in Ca. Probably not, but I'd sure be quick to reduce that source, if I though that was a source. .
     
  13. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Just saw this post now.

    The chart reposted at #51 was for ozone, one of several components of air quality. But there is no ozone unit of measurement, just a somewhat arbitrary number of unhealthy days (see below). So this is why I posted figure b on post #47 to clarify. That chart actually trends ozone concentration over time and shows continued and significant improvement beyond the 1960s to the 1990s. The reposted chart on post #51 makes it look like LA had not improved beyond the trough near the turn of the century at first glance, whereas it clearly did via actual measurements.

    The apparent contradiction in charts seems to be explained by the American Lung Association (ALA) using stricter air standards over time.

    The EPA has become more stringent in what constitutes bad air quality with regard to ozone over time. According to the methodology section of the ALA, The current national ambient air quality standard for ozone is 70 parts per billion (ppb) measured over eight hours. They continue to follow EPA guidelines including the current 70 ppb standard and the ALA notes they tried to identify the number of days that 8-hour daily maximum concentrations in each county occurred within the defined ranges.

    Methodology and Acknowledgements | American Lung Association

    But most recently, in 2015 the EPA tightened to this 70 ppb standard.

    Based on its review of the air quality criteria for ozone (O3) and related photochemical oxidants and national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) for O3, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is revising the primary and secondary NAAQS for O3to provide requisite protection of public health and welfare, respectively. The EPA is revising the levels of both standards to 0.070 parts per million (ppm), and retaining their indicators (O3), forms (fourth-highest daily maximum, averaged across three consecutive years) and averaging times (eight hours).


    https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2015-10-26/pdf/2015-26594.pdf

    I probably should not have posted the annual weighted days chart for this reason. It's like telling a runner who is getting faster over time that he really isn't getting better because the time standards are getting tougher.
     
  14. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Here's the timeline of the EPA's progressively more stringent O3 standards:

    Table of Historical Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) | Ozone Pollution | US EPA


    Date: Feb 8, 1979
    Indicator: O3
    Averaging Time: 1 hour
    Level: 0.12 ppm
    Form: Attainment is defined when the expected number of days per calendar year, with maximum hourly average concentration greater than 0.12 ppm, is equal to or less than 1


    Date: Jul 18, 1997
    Indicator: O3
    Averaging Time: 8 hours
    Level: 0.08 ppm
    Form: Annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hr concentration, averaged over 3 years


    Date: Mar 27, 2008
    Indicator: O3
    Averaging Time: 8 hours
    Level: 0.075 ppm
    Form: Annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hr concentration, averaged over 3 years

    Date: Oct 26, 2015
    Indicator: O3
    Averaging Time: 8 hours
    Level: 0.070 ppm
    Form: Annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8 hour average concentration, averaged over 3 years



    So, from 1979-1997 ozone standards remained the same. But starting in 1997, they have been tightened 3 times. So without any change in ozone levels, ozone air quality would appear to worsen by this (non)metric. But we have the data above that shows ozone was really always improving with a few small and transient blips along the way.
     
  15. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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  16. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Should be at 11k barrels per day within 1 week at this rate. Today the EIA reported as of the week ending 06/08 we hit a record 10.9k barrels per day.
     
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  17. Andyprius1

    Andyprius1 Senior Member

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    Maybe somebody can fill me in to a very real change in oil trading. The strategy was for decades to buy other peoples oil and save ours. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC and NON OPEC sold
    us cheaper oil and the rest of the World, also using Petro$. This was good for us as Petro$ are US$. So that oil trading exerted a demand on $ keeping the value not strong maybe, but at least stable. Are we now competing in the oil trade to return Petro$ to the USA. Or do we now think we have unlimited oil production.
    Something very funny here and I’m sure somebody in DCs getting rich.
     
  18. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Fracking technology advanced by ~2010 and insiders seem to believe above $50/barrel it is profitable to do in the States.
     
  19. Andyprius1

    Andyprius1 Senior Member

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    I understand fracking leaves huge holes, perhaps never to be filled in..........?
     
  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    and contaminates drinking water?
     
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