Impending Record U.S. Crude Oil Production

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by iplug, Jan 29, 2018.

  1. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Would like to see the U.S. as a net producer of oil not so much due to the supply side but the demand side.

    Hoping the continued growth of plug-ins will help achieve this in the next 2-5 years. If plug-ins grow fast enough, they will outpace the eventual oil production fall.

    At current declining net import rates (using a tend line over the last two years), the U.S. touches net zero for the first time in 2020. Climbing gasoline prices could make this happen months sooner, lower a bit longer, etc.
     
    #81 iplug, Oct 11, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2018
  2. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Most recent EIA data just released today (week ending 11/02); U.S. Field Crude Oil Production jumped to a new record 11.6 million barrels/day:

    11/02: 11.6 million barrels/day
    10/26: 11.2 million barrels/day
    10/19: 10.9million barrels/day
    10/12: 10.9 million barrels/day
    10/05: 11.2 million barrels/day
    09/28: 11.1 million barrels/day
    09/21: 11.1 million barrels/day
    09/14: 11.0 million barrels/day
    09/07: 10.9 million barrels/day
     
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    good election, markets up, people are feeling flush:rolleyes:
     
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Crude oil price has fallen about 13% since late September.
     
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    but gasoline is up, no? pretty flat around here though
     
  6. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Equities (stock) markets reacted positively today, but this oil data predates that. The new record is for data only to week ending 11/2/2018.
     
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  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I'm impressed that EIA data is as current as it is. Seems like they'd need to be plugged in to many data sources to compile this.
     
  9. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Data junkies get their quick fix.

    Some folks...would say the type that concentrate a bit in places like PriusChat...appreciate (timely - or any) publicly funded research, granular data in sectors such as energy, environment, economy...
     
  10. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Still going up despite oil prices falling last few weeks. EIA data updated today and another record for U.S. Field Crude Oil Production:

    11/09: 11.7 million barrels/day
    11/02: 11.6 million barrels/day
    10/26: 11.2 million barrels/day
    10/19: 10.9million barrels/day
    10/12: 10.9 million barrels/day
    10/05: 11.2 million barrels/day
    09/28: 11.1 million barrels/day
    09/21: 11.1 million barrels/day
    09/14: 11.0 million barrels/day
    09/07: 10.9 million barrels/day


    Baker Hughes on Friday reported that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil climbed by 8 to 869 this week. That was the largest weekly rise since the week ended Aug. 10. The oil-rig count had posted declines in each of the past three weeks. The total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, was also up by 11 at 1,063, according to Baker Hughes

    Baker Hughes data show U.S. oil-rig count up for first time in 4 weeks - MarketWatch
     
    #90 iplug, Nov 15, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2018
  11. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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  12. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Yeah, the economics here are hard to accurately pin down. Maybe the breakeven point of some shale plays is <<$50/barrel so pumping in spite of significant pipeline constraints? Apparently when oil prices tanked last time lessons were learned about over-extending.
     
  13. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Power politics?
    I wonder if the USA production strength is leading to less enthusiasm to bring Candian crude down to compete with us? Also Saudi Arbaia is pissed that Trump gave Iran a break and so they want to cut back exports to USA to fight back.
     
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Obviously, no one would see a current opportunity to top off the SPR.

    I mean, obviously.
     
  15. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Gasoline prices recently dipped, but the U.S. is still on track for net exportation of crude oil as of most recent data.

    Newest monthly data released today is a tad old (not reflecting recent drop in gas prices), but a record low net imports of only 2,273 thousands of barrels per day of crude as of September 2018. In a couple months we should see how lower gas prices now are affecting this trend.

    U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (Thousand Barrels per Day)
     
  16. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    U.S. oil production holding near the peak for the moment. Will be hard to keep up. Facing strong headwinds with continued decline in oil prices. WTI crude at $47/bbl at the moment.

    12/14: 11.6 million barrels/day
    12/07: 11.6 million barrels/day
    11/09-11/30: 11.7 million barrels/day
    11/02: 11.6 million barrels/day
    10/26: 11.2 million barrels/day
    10/19: 10.9million barrels/day
    10/12: 10.9 million barrels/day
     
  17. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    higher interest rates ain't gonna help (y)
     
  18. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Some oil fracking magic working behind the scenes.

    We have a new record for U.S. oil production, 12.0 million barrels per day. Not sure how they keep pushing through the headwinds:

    02/15: 12.0 million barrels/day
    01/11-02/08: 11.9 million barrels/day
    12/21-01/4: 11.7 million barrels/day
    12/14: 11.6 million barrels/day
    12/07: 11.6 million barrels/day
    11/09-11/30: 11.7 million barrels/day
    11/02: 11.6 million barrels/day
    10/26: 11.2 million barrels/day
    10/19: 10.9 million barrels/day
     
  19. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    I'm not sure why they bother with transport and refinery bottlenecks.
     
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