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Induction Reasoning......

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by ETC(SS), Jan 17, 2023.

  1. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    ... which is exactly one of the other possible actions mentioned. But not the only other alternative.
     
  2. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    It is astounding to see how low a price some will accept to abandon their loyalty to the Constitution, or their oath to protect and defend it. A mere 28% gain in their 401(k)? That is so cheap.

    Completely separate from such weak 'principals', it is also sad that they started their 401(k) so late. If they'd started at P45's angry inaugural address and stayed through his pouty last flight on AF1, they'd have seen a 67% gain (inclusive of dividend reinvestments). While that is the best first term GOP performance in the past four decades, a couple others did even better:

    SP500 by POTUS first term.GIF

    Some administrations went two full terms and achieved more:

    SP500 by POTUS full term.GIF

    For those who think 28% over time is good, note those who started at the end of the Great Recession in early 2009, now have about 580% gain, even after the very recent losses. That is spread over 3 administrations.

    My 401(k) / IRAs are old enough that their original contributions have grown well over 5000%, over 7 administrations, even with counting the recent losses under P46 and the entire two terms of P43.

    I noticed shelves starting to become unstocked in March 2020, when we returned from an aborted ski tour. Which POTUS was that? It was a very good thing that we had restocked the toilet paper and paper towel shelf just before the trip. Our main shortage turned out to be cat food.
    Inflation effectively stopped last June, and has been well under 1% inflation over the past 6 months. While 12-month inflation briefly topped 9% last June, it hasn't been 10% since April 1981.
    ... and refused to return them when NARA asked, claiming they belonged to him, not the gum'nt. For 15 months, until the FBI came to Mar-A-Lago and took the last of them. And in the process, made one of his lawyers perjure himself be declaring that no classified documents remained, when over 100 still did.
     
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  3. vvillovv

    vvillovv Senior Member

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    Induction, Convection and Radiant, which do you prefer when cooking?
     
  4. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    The magic of compounding is eye-popping to be sure, but to my mind it's just an extra thing to back out before comparing periods of different lengths. Otherwise every two-term president's likely to show way bigger numbers (or, in P43's case, bigger in absolute value) than as a one-termer, and a gain over 14 years just looks staggeringly huge.

    That's why I like to convert everything to the equivalent per-year growth:

    Code:
    >>> def annl(percent, years):
    ...   return round(100 * (pow(1 + percent/100., 1./years) - 1), 1)
    ... 
    >>> annl(210, 8) # Clinton 
    15.2
    >>> annl(580, 14) # Since early '09  
    14.7
    >>> annl(182, 8) # Obama  
    13.8
    >>> annl(67, 4) # Trump
    13.7
    >>> annl(51, 4) # H W Bush
    10.9
    >>> annl(118, 8) # Reagan  
    10.2
    >>> annl(-40, 8) # W Bush  
    -6.2
    
    I see the above has a curious artifact where the 580% "since early '09" figure comes to a larger annualized growth rate than any of the presidential administrations that period covers. I'd maybe look for the explanation in the exact start/end dates fuzzy1 used for the 580% figure compared to those chosen for the administrations, and in my rough choice of exactly 14 years as the length of that period.

    Goes to show the specific dates chosen can make a noticeable effect, just as the "no warming since 1998!" talking point illustrated not so long ago.
     
    #44 ChapmanF, Jan 20, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2023
  5. John321

    John321 Senior Member

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    The 580% aroused my curiosity also.

    I agree on the magic of compounding.
     
  6. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    At the same time, you notice, even with the 580%, that it annualizes to a not-very-surprising annual rate.

    There's a kind of second-order curiosity about just where it ends up, within a percent or so, within the list of other figures, but it's not out of the ballpark in the slightest.
     
  7. John321

    John321 Senior Member

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    Maybe misunderstanding 580%.

    How I understand it money would have doubled almost 6 times ex :
    $200,000 doubled once = $400,000 - doubled twice = $800,000 - doubled 3rd time = $1,600,000 - doubled 4th time = $3,200,000- doubled 5th time = $6,400,000 - doubled 6th time = $12,800,000.

    I would like to experience an investment like that during that time period.
     
  8. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    You did misunderstand. 580% gain means the end value is (1 + 580%/100%) = (1+5.8) = 6.8X the initial value. Starting with $200,000 means ending with $1,360,000.

    My reply was aimed at a different level, at someone seemingly impressed by 28% return over an unspecified length time, no longer than a presidential term, ending at the most recent Inauguration. It wasn't aimed at others who better understand compound interest and stock markets.
    That 580% is a rounded rendition of this:

    https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/
    upload_2023-1-20_21-15-41.png

    For those wanting to dig into more precise detail, another source shows the Great Recession nadir of the S&P500 Index as March 9, 2009, at 676.51, about 7 weeks into P44's term, not at his Inauguration. But the above display figures only to the nearest month, not to a specific day.
     
  9. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    That might explain how it wound up where it did in my ordered list. I wouldn't be surprised if the other graph showing the S&P performance per administration just used market values (as my own earlier post did) without reinvested dividends.

    Likewise, my post showing the same things annualized was not aimed at you, but to contribute to that better understanding by building on your post.
     
  10. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    Now that this thread is soup, I figure I might as well mention cooking again. (Ha!)

    We've had the induction rig going for a few months and we love it!

    All the speed and raw power of a gas cooktop but none of the fumes or leak potential. And cleaning that single sheet of tempered glass is a breeze compared to gratings and burners or coils and reflectors.

    It isn't perfect, we had a few technology issues that can best be summed up as "F#$%@#g idiot GE product designers!!" but we got through it. I guess it'll be a Bosch or Samsung next time.

    The power is great, gets everything hot fast. Hot enough for Herr Dr. Leidenfrost to do his thing, and then we only need to spend 1/4 the time cleaning the pans. This thing saves us a bunch of time in the kitchen!

    simpsonscereal.gif

    Bon appétit, yo!
     
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  11. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Yep, we love ours too. Been cooking with it for 6+ years now.
    Cleanup is simple:)
     
  12. Stevewoods

    Stevewoods Senior Member

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    Been using induction since 2009. Have five induction cooktops. Three of them are single burner portable models that can be used anywhere with a 110 outlet -- they get most of their use plugged in to my Honda generators during power outages, but they can be put in service when we need an extra burner or two during holiday celebrations or in various outdoor cooking situations.

    Considering we have had power outages of up to three weeks, they really help.

    The other two are the typical five burner GE models -- installed in the countertops in the kitchen -- one in each house.

    I was skeptical, but now that we have them, I love them. As mentioned, easy to clean, I don't find them "fragile," they heat up water in an instant and they are considered somewhat energry miserly, with up to 90% of the energy consumed transferred to the food, compared to 74% for traditional electric systems and 40% for gas.

    I do think the whole "ban natural gas" thing about as stupid as a lot of other things the government gets pushed into by well-meaning but misguided special interest groups.
     
  13. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Senior Member

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    That’s not bad, Better’n gas for sure, cheaper (I think), and all your cookware works.
     
  14. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    After nearly all my Revereware and similar was warped by a cook who uses much higher electric range heat setting than I do, they probably would work better now on a gas range. Traditional electric burners work best with items that still have true flat bottoms. I can't imagine our warped items, with significantly less direct contact, can be that efficient anymore.

    But most of our stuff doesn't work on induction, so we'll be replacing them when we convert to all-induction. Right now, we have just a single portable induction burner, with a couple new pieces to go with it, and it is now the go-to burner.
     
  15. cyberpriusII

    cyberpriusII Prodigyplace says I'm Super Kris

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    Induction is great, but a couple of "issues."

    It really messes up listening to AM radio while cooking -- now I know not many people probably listen to AM anymore, but I do like to listen to football while cooking. Stupid Induction cooking TECHNICAL question | PriusChat

    As mentioned, you can't necessarily use the old pots and pans you have had since you were 20, because as mentioned, magnetic cookware is needed. Luckily I bought a whole raft of stainless AllClad pots/pans from their "seconds" outlet long before the secret of buying AllClad seconds was "out." Personally, other than an "S" stamped on the bottom of them, I can't see any flaws.
    https://homeandcooksales.com/
    kris
     
    #55 cyberpriusII, May 27, 2023
    Last edited: May 27, 2023
  16. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    AllClad and other top line cookware also shows up at Home Goods.
     
  17. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    I don't miss AM when I'm cooking.

    For the pots and pans we did okay. All the ones we had in normal circulation were capable, though some were much better than others as we learned. A Hamilton-Beach stockpot doesn't have enough steel in the slug for the mass the pot needs to heat up, so it'll be replaced at some point.

    We have some Le Creuset factory seconds that work beautifully.
     
  18. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    I bought an HD Radio tuner some years back. The local public radio station has their studios right nearby, but their transmit towers are south of town, directly across a big honkin' hill from me, and their AM broadcasts were always noisy. With the HD tuner, as long as it can get enough signal to work with, the sound is just fine.

    Of course, it's already teetering on the edge of "enough signal to work with" just because of the hill, so maybe induction cooking would still push it over.

    Possibly raising the antenna into the attic would help with the hill business. (I don't know ... does adding height to the antenna help in general, before it's high enough to be higher than the hill? Maybe, I guess, 'cause my house isn't taller than the hill, but the towers are.)

    But I like to minimize the holes i make in old plaster. And there's this IR-reflective foil lining the attic, so maybe that wouldn't be great for radio either.
     
    #58 ChapmanF, May 27, 2023
    Last edited: May 27, 2023
  19. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    "there's this IR-reflective foil lining the attic"

    A tin-foil house is good for avoiding mind control signals also.
     
  20. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    It's not the house, just the attic. The bulk of my time isn't spent there.

    Still, if the mind-control signals come from above, I suppose it helps.