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Is 400 just the number after 399, or are we doomed, so we can stop arguing

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by austingreen, Nov 20, 2015.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Large herbivores @39. There may be a problem here. In the current fauna we can consider the largest whales at sea and elephants on land. Both of these have larger brains than humans, but interestingly, with lower neuronal density and lower specific energy demands. I ain't sayin' they're stoopid, but human brain is unique in these ways.

    'Feeding your head' changed fundamentally with fire. Cooking food gives you a lot more recoverable energy per unit of food-acquisition effort. One can read that humans would have never become as now without this.

    I may here be putting myself at odds with pure vegetarians or (more likely) raw food advocates. But I reckon that fire and 'the fire of consciousness' are not entirely separate things.

    It might be quite a thing to be an elephant (assuming you can avoid circus employment). You get to kick lions and tigers out of the way. But, you spend your whole dang time eating or looking for plants to eat. You are mostly a big stomach, with all appendages in service of that. When your teeth wear down (the essential step one food grinders), you die.

    You can't cook. So your future greatness will closely resemble your past greatness. You are stuck in now.

    Humans in the future may tone it down on meat consumption, but the stove is not optional.

    +++

    Well, that was fun. But back here, whether Marcott carries the day depends a lot on getting that paleo T harmonized with paleo sea levels. If that can be sorted out, we may have a good enough picture of T in the old days.
     
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  2. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    I prefer the flavor of raw and undercooked food in most cases, but a lunch of sashimi does sit heavier in the gut than the Thanksgiving feast. Research with reptiles has shown the increased energy raw food takes to digest. Being "cold-blooded" means the difference in oxygen consumption after a cooked or raw meal is most likely due to the different energy use of digestion.

    Plankton and plants might be closer to the sun's energy, but neither are nutritionally dense. Human brains need lots of energy. Meat gives the most energy for the effort to get it, and cooking it makes the digestion more efficient. Probably all of us should east less meat, but a healthy vegetarian diet today wouldn't be possible without the technology built by generations of meat eaters.
     
  3. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I serverly doubt this thesis. There are plenty of calories in raw foods, plenty to have sustained human populations before the popularity of the flush toilet. Flush toilets were necessary to get population densities high, and modern version wasn't really invented until the eithteenth cencury.

    Fire was necessary for warmth not food, although cooking some of the foods gave variety and access to some foods dangerous when raw.

    I'm not sure what this has to do with global warming. We probably have plenty of biofuels and wind to cook renewably ;-) fossil is needed to transport or famines will result though
     
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I posted it here because Bob suggested vegetarianism here. nothing' wrong with that, but if you want high population densities and everybody not spending all there time on food acquisition, cooking is the thing.

    As Austin mentions, many foods common now are indigestible unless cooked.
     
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Actually I was looking at the shortest path from sunlight to food. I'm perfectly OK if our 'advanced' GMO discovers someway to convert critters into hamburger . . . some sort of GMO larva comes to mind. <grins>

    Of course our favorite is chicken which I understand is a high-efficiency, converter of flora into fauna. Interesting enough, everything new taste like too. In one respect, we are the dinosaur descendant eaters.

    Bob Wilson
     
  6. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Ah, but raw foods could easily feed the planet.

    Bob is right, but lets say less meat per capita would need less land and fossil fuels, plus likely reduce ghg relatively to todays agricultural production. If you are trying to use the least land, fertilizer, pesticides and water though many of the high calorie plants don't work, so you get a suboptimal result if that is your goal.

    Raw foods are often better for health, but high percentages are not for lower priced food or less ghg.


    Food security: What crops will feed the world if we run out of farmland?
    Calories per acre for various foods
    It takes 16x more land to produce the same calories in beef as potatoes. Fruits and vegetables add variety and nutrition. Soybeans the most protein per acre, add in other beans, corn, and rice here. Healthy fats are important with key sources olives, soybeans, avocados, rapeseed, and other nuts and seeds.

    Just cup of soybeans and 5 cups of sweet potatoes provides 1400 calories and all the protein and fats needed in a day. Add 600 calories of less efficient crops ro provide the missing vitamins and flavor and we have a 2000 calorie a day diet that uses a lot less land, water, ferilizer, and pesticides and produces less ghg.
     
    #46 austingreen, Jan 29, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2016
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Have there been any captive or voluntary populations put on such a diet for a long term study? If cheap enough, it might be the type of diet inmates, submariners, or space travelers might be put on.

    The only part new to me are the '5 cups of sweet potatoes'. Curious, I didn't know this before. I knew in WW-II, carrots were a major staple in some areas leading to an orange skin tint in some populations.

    Sorry, didn't mean to hijack the thread. Of course the Irish have already shown the risk of monocultures.

    Bob Wilson
     
  8. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Inmates sure, I don't see the point for submariners or space travelers. For inmates you could probably design a better diet than many have now around the world for cheap. For submariners its the volume of the food, and it doesn't help there. For space travelers its volume and weight, again no reason to do this, as it is not optimized for that, but for less growing acreage and less water fertilizer and pesticides. Sweet potatos + soy are a good way to lose weight to get to a healthy weight as you don't over eat, but in space, keeping on weight is more of a problem. Remove all that fiber and other good stuff and you need less fuel on that space craft.

    You mention irish below, which lived primerily on white potatoes, but sweet potatoes are better for you. My grandfather than grew up in ukraine got most calories from sweet and white potatoes when he was a child, but once getting to the US ate a much more varied diet, because the foods were available.

    It was my quick math from what are the two foods that are most nutritional growth efficient. Soybeans because of protein took my first cut, and 1 cup provides more protein than the average adult needs. Because of all the fat in soybeans they are much more nutritionally dense, than sweet potatos. Getting to 1400 calories gets us to 5 cups of sweet potatoes. For the rest you can add fruits and vegetables nuts etc.

    Monocultures are indeed a risk, and in the US corn is more of a monoculture in many states than we would need for this type of a diet. I'm just trying to get across that there is plenty of land and water even with climate change to feed 10 billion people, but we may need to switch crops. Some places are better to grow corn and rice than sweet potatos, and these are also fairly good at nutrition per acre.

    The other point we should make about the potato famine is people starved because of politics, not because the world didn't have enough food. These blights are going to happen in places around the world.
    The History Place - Irish Potato Famine: The Blight Begins
    It was not long after malthus, and many people in England just thought it was fine for the poor in Ireland to die. Few died the first year. Mills could have been built to grind imported american grain that first year, and the british government could have paid for it, but that was not the policy. They planted potatos again the next years and blight happened again, and the government allowed absentee landowners to export Irish grain to make higher profits while people were starving.
     
  9. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    We do need to take care when planning a diet to look deeper into what the food source provides in terms of nutrition; fats and proteins aren't created equal. We are lucky to be omnivores, but there is still the potential that we won't be able to actually make use of all the stuff the lab tests says are in a food. Then we have to balance that with what else is in the food, like the estrogen like compounds in soy.
     
  10. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I'm just countering the with climate change we don't have enough land and water to grow food for X billion people (I like the number 10 Billion for the people, the UN medium project, malthus who thought that much over the 1 B that were around at the time of his paper thought couldn't be fed ), but we have plenty.

    Soy and sweet potatoes are simply the most efficient with regards to land. The soy has a symbiotic relationship with bateria in the soil to fix nitrogen, which means they need less or no fossil fuel to make fertilizer. To the point above these are cooked or fermented plants. Sweet potatoes are hard to eat if they aren't cooked, and soy should be cooked or fermented to remove enzyme inhibitors. Research is fairly incomplete on whether soy chemicals harm or help, but too much of any food is probably not good.

    High yield protein sources per acre are also lentils, black beans, chick peas, etc. We have corn, rice, and wheat to go with the potatoes. No one said you couldn't use suplements or heavily process the calories to remove things or add them. Lots of food.

    If you have land and money though you want meat and coffee and truffles and lobster ;-) Its a matter of will governments make the right trade offs. Starvation and hunger is now a political not a technological problem.
     
  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Paleo T proxies for ocean temperature

    Pacific Ocean Heat Content During the Past 10,000 Years
    Yair Rosenthal, Braddock K. Linsley, Delia W. Oppo (2013)
    SCIENCE 342: 617-621
    DOI: 10.1126/science.1240837

    Pacific is not the global ocean but it is the biggest. I'd rather y'all looked at the publication than rely on my amateur summary. But here goes: in it you will find parts of the record showing 'generally flat', 'generally increasing', and parts with a hump about 8000 years ago.

    I find the Paleo T proxies over this interval to show a variety of patterns. All of them. Their general story may become clearer later, and it should be hoped to eventually show concordance with sea level history.

    Shorter instrumental T records have the most recent 50 years going up. It remains difficult to compare this half century with 10 millenia of paleo. I can't think of a way to convince people in any of the 3 camps:

    1) Not now hottest
    2) Probably now hottest but future 'much hotter' predictions are difficult to qualify
    3) Will be much hotter by the end of this century

    To consider the other 2. Feet of clay, Bob might say.
     
  12. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Soy (legumes in general) are a big deal because of N fixing bacteria. Of the many types of tofu available 'over here' only one seems particularly disgusting to me and only if I see it before final preparation. It is covered with fungal hyphae and something in my cultural training says 'don't be eating that'.

    I agree that we ought to take agricultural issues to a different thread. But before departing let me bring to your attention the story that got me interested in human brain metabolism:

    How Did Human Brains Get to Be so Big? - Scientific American Blog Network
     
  13. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Using Occam's razor that the simplest explanation is probably best - we can take the idea of descent with modification, and the multi gene theory to explain it quite nicely. Human's with bigger brains had more viable offspring, either by surviving long enough to mate and raise the offspring enough for their survival and success in breeding;) The bigger brains allowed things like flattery and a sense of humor, that likely helped in mating success. It doesn't have to be a big complicated thing. If you watch idiocracy, again not a documenary, you will see that lack of culling presures may be selecting for lower intelegence today :(

    Anyway glad you see that the humble soybean when fermented or cooked is able to use less fertilizer and feed more people than for example growing corn and feeding it to pigs and using that meat for the majority of protein. It is relatively simple to grow tubers on not much land to convert solar energy to starch, break that down to sugar, and feed that to our big brains. Unfortunately that land and water use thing takes coordination, and with lots of corporate money and advertising the world is making sub optimal choices.
     
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    For paleo CO2 and its consequences, Y'all should read

    D.O. Breecker, Z.D. Sharp, and L.D. McFadden (2010). Atmospheric CO2 concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100. PNAS 107(2) 576-580. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0902323106

    It teaches how 500 ppm CO2 (we'll surely reach) and 1000 (best to avoid!) might affect climate. Their paleo CO2 differs from the (not recently updated) 'Geocraft website', but this is what one would expect when somebody gets far behind.

    Let us all be grateful that science does advance, and be kind to those whose understanding lags behind.
     
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  15. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I have suggested before that sea-level rise has averaged a third of a millimeter per year over the last 8000 years. These are from coral records which are not global (they like warm water), but at least they are wide ranging.

    There is another interesting thing - Roman fish tanks. You can read about them. 2000 (or 2500 years ago) these tanks were constructed with tops at sea level. High tides would refresh the water inside, keeping fish alive. But if the tanks were a bit too low, the caught fish would just swim out. Romans being good engineers, apparently built them correctly. Some still exist, and are about 1.2 m below current sea level. So for this limited area, archaeologists (at least one named Mourtzas) says sea-level rise since then has averaged two thirds of a millimeter per year.

    Not global; far from it. But it is independent of corals, and tells a similar study. This apparent slow sea-level rise is persistently difficult to square with suggestions that paleo-T was warmer than now.

    Whatever written records say about the Roman warm period (I have not read them), this co-located record says 1.2 m below current sea level. What to do?
     
  16. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    No similar 'horserace' plots have yet been posted for this year.

    However, digging out the data they do have to make my own, it appears that the 2016 line so far would be completely off this graph's top scale:
    Jan: +1.04 C
    Feb: +1.12 C
    Mar: +1.15 C

    (Technical note: This 'horserace' style graph uses year-to-date averages. Thus, there is no December to January continuity. And the left side has much more noise than the right side, because January points represent a single month, while December points represent 12 month averages.)
     
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  17. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    I am looking for cool-off in the next 2,3 years assuming el Nino effects control this year. If that cool off does not happen then I think it could be significant talking point in favor of more bipartisan climate change action. If the cool off does happen,as I expect, more acrimony ensues.
     
  18. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    Where? It is what China and India does that matters most. How much does "acrimony" mean to them?
     
  19. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    I see the next 2-10 years as very interesting, we should start to see if the global warming models are correct or not. Right today we have El Nino, so the current year is questionable. But soon El Nino is over and we shall see what happens.

    If El Nino goes away and the globe is still warming, then that will give a lot of ammo to the model believers.
     
  20. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    No so fast my friends ... the climate skeptics loved using 1998 as their 'starting point' for a pause in global cooling. Simple do a year-by-year comparison of the El Nino 'spikes' and the problem is solved. <GRINS>

    I'd already done that by plotting the maximums and minimums including the 1998 El Nino spike and the upward temperature slope was still there. It actually generates two, upward sloping lines ... the connected maximums and connected minimums. It is an old calculus trick that works for noisy data.

    Bob Wilson