Jan '08 second coldest in 15 years

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by TimBikes, Feb 5, 2008.

  1. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    Looks like Jan '08 is the second coldest January in 15 years. Of course, if was the 2nd warmest in 15 years you would have read about it in the papers.

    Besides January, it is interesting to note that there is no discernible upward temp. trend for at least the past 75+ months.
     
  2. hyo silver

    hyo silver Awaaaaay

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    Tim, you wouldn't be suggesting that a season's weather has anything to do with long term climate, would you? :rolleyes:
    Or that 'colder' and 'climate change' don't go together?
     
  3. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    I'm suggesting that 75+ months of stable / decreasing global temperatures are a bit odd, given the dramatic increase in CO2 over this period. One month does not make a trend, but 75+ months is beginning to look a bit odd.

    BTW, I agree that "colder" and "climate change" can absolutely go together. However, based on the IPCC's models, "Colder" and "CO2 Increase" do not.

    The next 3-5 years will be interesting. If temperatures continue as flat to declining, someone's gonna have some explaining to do. But I'll admit, there is no guarantee of this - only time will tell.
     
  4. tripp

    tripp Which it's a 'ybrid, ain't it?

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    Where did last jan fall? For us here in CO last jan was consistently colder than this year, but I seem to recall folks back east wondering where winter went.
     
  5. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    Overall warmer than normal for most latitudes.
     
  6. hobbit

    hobbit Senior Member

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    a reference timeframe of 15 years didn't really work for
    the dinosaurs, did it?
    .
    _H*
     
  7. malorn

    malorn Senior Member

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    I thought the climate change problem AL gore was describing in his movie was warming? So if the month's temperatures are warmer it is from AGW and if they are colder it is from AGW?
     
  8. JimN

    JimN Let the games begin!

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  9. MegansPrius

    MegansPrius GoogleMeister, AKA bongokitty

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    As the person who runs the site you quote states:

    REPLY: I agree and point out to you that no where in the story does it say anything about it being significant to climate change, in fact the one connection made was to current weather events that have happened around the globe in the past month. The other biggest significance is it’s link to La Nina. Thats why the title above the La Nina SST anomaly picture says “Probable cause - Much Grande La Ninaâ€.
    I think you read something into the article that wasn’t there.

    I.E., US temperatures ≠ Global Climate.

    The confusion of local weather with global climate is the oldest sophistry in the anti-global warming book. I remember reading newspaper editorials ten years ago saying there couldn't be global warming because it snowed in the winter. Wait, you mean the words "Global Climate" don't mean my local weather? ;)
     
  10. qbee42

    qbee42 My other car is a boat

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    Global warming models predict extremes, both warmer and colder. Some places get warmer while others cool off, just as some places get wetter while others dry out. It's not as simple as people would like it to be, but then, if it really were that simple, there wouldn't be any argument.

    Tom
     
  11. tripp

    tripp Which it's a 'ybrid, ain't it?

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    Scott, I think his point was that it's not getting any media attention or being hyped up.
     
  12. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    Exactly - we all see the stories about how the early daffodil flowering this year in Poughkeepsie is a sure sign of global warming, blah, blah, blah.
     
  13. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    Got to love it. So no matter what happens, the AGW alarmists will be right!
     
  14. icarus

    icarus Senior Member

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    For those that think "climate change" only is a matter of how hot or cold it is I offer this.

    Spend some time in the high arctic, or the antarctic. Look at temp extremes in places like northern siberia, northern Canada. Look at ocean temps, look at average ice coverage. The problem most of us have is we can't see beyond our own experiance. The planet is a big place and not all that well understood.

    Whether or not you believe in climate change or not, you have to at least hold out the possibility that it is human caused. (I do!) The shear volume of greenhouse gasses emitted in China and India are staggering. Even if the BULK of the respected scientific community is wrong about the magnitude of the problem (I don't think they are) you have to wonder if the costs of doing nothing is acceptable.

    I get so tired of hearing that we can't afford to work on the problem. The short answer is that we are passing the "bill" off on our children and grandchildren.

    In the short run, the move to green energy (Not Bio!) will generate a whole passel of jobs that cannot be exported. PV installers, solar cell makers, energy efficiency auditors, insulation installers etc. Ever dollar spent in conservation saves way more than its cost.

    It is time to take this seriously and stop putting out head(s) in the sand, and listening to the party line. Prius driving is a start, but we can do so much more with such little effort.

    Enough soapbox, I'm sure I will hear from everyone on this.

    Icarus
     
  15. icarus

    icarus Senior Member

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    For those that think "climate change" only is a matter of how hot or cold it is I offer this.

    Spend some time in the high arctic, or the antarctic. Look at temp extremes in places like northern siberia, northern Canada. Look at ocean temps, look at average ice coverage. The problem most of us have is we can't see beyond our own experiance. The planet is a big place and not all that well understood.

    Whether or not you believe in climate change or not, you have to at least hold out the possibility that it is human caused. (I do!) The shear volume of greenhouse gasses emitted in China and India are staggering. Even if the BULK of the respected scientific community is wrong about the magnitude of the problem (I don't think they are) you have to wonder if the costs of doing nothing is acceptable.

    I get so tired of hearing that we can't afford to work on the problem. The short answer is that we are passing the "bill" off on our children and grandchildren.

    In the short run, the move to green energy (Not Bio!) will generate a whole passel of jobs that cannot be exported. PV installers, solar cell makers, energy efficiency auditors, insulation installers etc. Ever dollar spent in conservation saves way more than its cost.

    It is time to take this seriously and stop putting out head(s) in the sand, and listening to the party line. Prius driving is a start, but we can do so much more with such little effort.

    Enough soapbox, I'm sure I will hear from everyone on this.

    Icarus

    Sorry for the duplicate post, I can't seem to delete it.
     
  16. tripp

    tripp Which it's a 'ybrid, ain't it?

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    No worries, mate. It happens. I tend to take a similar view to yours and it's not just about climate change. There are security and economic reasons to strees efficiency and innovation. The OP(the honourable M. Bikes) would agree with that too, having stated it many times here on PC.

    To me it's about risk mitigation. I think Tim's beef with the AGW crowd is that there is often a lot of hyperbole by the media and fringe players that can't really be backed up scientically. We need to understand that this stuff is in its infancy and we need to have a balanced view. That said, the biggest risks are associated with unknowns, and frankly there's a lot that we don't understand about the global climate system. As such, we should be prudent and we should defo start picking the low hanging fruit, IMO. We're sort of starting that now, and if you look back 3-4 years, you realize how much progress has been made. We've got a long way to go and some serious challanges. China and India pose the biggest challenge, but frankly, at the rate China's growing they'll suck up all the coal available to them in a few decades. India, I think, has fewer indigenous resources so they're going to have to change their tune pretty quickly too. Here in the US we're going to suffer expensive oil for the forseeable future now that it seems that China and India (along with a host of exporting countries that are getting more and more affluent) have established themselves as major fossil fuel economies.
     
  17. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    Right on. I know I tend to harp on the alarmism, but there is enough reason for action without it. I personally believe - after a lot of time and reading on the topic - that the impacts of CO2 on climate will be small. That said, I'm all for these sort of changes identified by McKinsey that basically pay for themselves anyway. Beyond these, I suggest Ross McKitrick's T3 tax.
     
  18. bestmapman

    bestmapman 04, 07 ,08, 09, 10 and 16 Pri

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    It is also unusually cold in Russia this year. It snowed in Bagdad and Jerusalem. It is colder this January than it has been in several years.
     
  19. MegansPrius

    MegansPrius GoogleMeister, AKA bongokitty

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    Ah. Got it. I do not know about the no hype though. At least, the Washington Times didn't miss the opportunity.
    Year of Global Cooling
     
  20. malorn

    malorn Senior Member

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    That is the way it seems to me too. No matter what is happing with the weather, it is man-made. Kerry said the tornadoes on Super Tuesday were the result of global warming and he is a US senator and could have been President.
     
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