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Just for @Bisco, Model Y rumors

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by el Crucero, Jan 7, 2019.

  1. el Crucero

    el Crucero Senior Member

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    Here is an article based on Model Y rumors. Base price of $40K with AWD.

    I don't give much credibility to these rumors. The base price of a Model 3 with AWD is $46K. The Model Y WILL NOT sell for less than a comparably equipped Model 3. I conjecture about $5K more.

    So I am starting a rumor that a base price for Model Y with AWD, black exterior, black cloth interior. 18" wheels, no bells and whistles, no Autopilot will be $50K.

    Tesla Model Y Rumormill Reignites: $40,000 Base, AWD Standard + More
     
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  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i certainly hope all these rumors are wrong. i want a simple prius like tesla with no frills for under 35k before tax credits
    otherwise, i'll probably stick with 90% ev in my pip and 40mpg hycam for long trips
     
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  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    don't need a glass roof, 40" hi def screen, auto pilot, gull wing doors or any other nonsense
     
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  4. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    IIRC, back in the day - Ford & GM & maybe others would private label Japanese Autos. The early Ford Courrier & Chevy S10's come to mind. Pipe dream - wouldn't it be cool if the Chinese auto plant getting built specifically for production of the model 3 & Y's started getting private labeled as Toyotas, & then get sent to the US . Chinese labor cost is ~ ΒΌ of Japan. Heck, they could sell 'em for under $30K & STILL have a huge profit margin! Musk says free use of their patents - so the only thing that could get in the way might be national pride. Toyota better jump on it before Hyundai or Honda or Nissan or whomever beats them to the punch.

    .
     
  5. el Crucero

    el Crucero Senior Member

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    You haven't driven one yet, have you? I can tell you that my glass roof and 15" U.I. screen, autopilot , on demand rear view camera, and auto lane change is addictive. And all that "nonsense" also makes me a better driver which keeps YOU safe from ME. (y)
     
  6. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Senior Member

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    Thread-worthy. (y)

    I'm with you, but don't think we're gonna win, the parade has move on, lol.
     
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  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i have not driven one. when there is a 35k model on the lot, i will. i'm retired
     
  8. el Crucero

    el Crucero Senior Member

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    I can guarantee the $35K car will not be a model Y. You might want to look at the BEV cars from Nissan and Kia. They might fit into your budget right now.
     
  9. el Crucero

    el Crucero Senior Member

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    I agree, Toyota should be selling a bare bones BEV Corolla for around $20K. That is not Tesla's market right now at this sensitive stage in their corporate development. If Toyota really wanted to produce a "Tesla killer" it would bring out a $32K BEV base Prius with 250 mile range this month. But unfortunately, that ain't going to happen any time soon. See the thread:
    Toyota apparently abandons the BEV market for now.
     
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  10. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i don't think you can make a profitable 32k bev. toyota likes profit, it helps to pay employees and stay in business.
    i haven't looked at the new leaf, but the price may be right in a few years, if they keep producing without gohsen
    kia is only in cali so far, and whoknkows if they'll ever come east

    that's why I'm sticking with pip for now

    as for tesla, they need to make a profit as well. i don't expect to see cheaper cars until production exceeds demand of higher price cars. it only makes sense

    but if the model y is close to x in price, will it be doa, or will x go away?
     
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  11. el Crucero

    el Crucero Senior Member

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    Interested in hearing your opinions of why not. If Toyota can make a profitable $20K ICEV, why can't they take that hunk of metal under the hood, throw in a battery pack and sell it profitably for $25K? Elon claims that the $35K model 3 will be profitable given improvements in production and economies of scale.

    I will try to answer my own question. Toyota won't make a profitable $35K BEV because it will cannibalize much of their ICEV product line, it will destroy their dealership marketing model, and it will expose their lack of confidence in the future of ICEVs for future transportation.

    I couldn't wait a few years. When climate change and greenhouse gases complications hit close to home, waiting is not an option. People tend to be conservative about change until the issue affects them personally or the government forces them to do it.


    I estimate that the model Y will be about $5000 more than a comparably equipped model 3. That is my subjective opinion. So it is possible that there will be a $40K bare bones, no options, RWD model Y with the same battery pack as the 220 mile range model 3, but the model Y will only get ~200 mile range due to higher cD and greater weight. But in my opinion, Tesla will not build that version of the model Y. The one they will build initially will be around $50K. We will know sometime this year.
     
  12. farmecologist

    farmecologist Senior Member

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  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    you could be right about eviscerating some of their ice products and the dealer network which is a difficult thing for all legacy makers, by law by the way.

    but i don't think removing the ice which has been around for so long and is likely very inexpensive, can be replaced by batteries for the same cost.
    but i have no idea what their costs are. you'd think if it were cheap, all kind of companies would be building them
     
  14. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Senior Member

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  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Started a new thread on VW's release of info on their EV platform.
    VW's MEB electric car platform | PriusChat
    There was a lot of details in a Jalopnik article, but posting their links here doesn't work.

    VW has a big advantage over Tesla in their mass production experience and infrastructure. Their weak point may lie in not having strong ties to a battery supplier.

    The dealer network is an issue in the US.

    Engines weren't cheap when they first arrived, and they still can be. The 100kWh pack in a Tesla is less than $20,000 in terms of the battery cells. The engine of an ICE car with equivalent performance can easily approach and exceed that cost. The engine has the legacy advantage, but batteries and motors still have room to improve as their growth continues.

    The investment for those improvements has a cost that won't pay off in the short term. That's why we needed the incentives. Legacy car makers aren't willing to make that investment at the expanse of their current ICE products. Between China, India, and Europe's response to dieselgate, I don't think the legacy manufactures can play wait and see for much longer.
     
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  16. el Crucero

    el Crucero Senior Member

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    Agree that VW has a lot more experience than Tesla, but Ford has a lot more experience than VW and that doesn't necessarily make Ford a better car than VW.

    I disagree that VW has better infrastructure than Tesla. I think infrastructure is much worse with regards to BEVs. Besides a lack of proprietary battery supply, they have no corporate, dedicated Supercharger system and they have a dealership network that is deadset against BEV products because they hurt a dealer's bottom line.
     
  17. el Crucero

    el Crucero Senior Member

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    All kind of companies are starting to build them. Are you keepin' up? :unsure: China is developing that sub-$20K BEV and production will start this year. The Chinese government is mandating conversion to BEVs by the population because they realize that cannot survive climate change without drastic measures. Tesla won't completely eviscerate ICEV and legacy automakers, but China will. And Tesla is going to start building both cars and batteries in China later this year.
     
  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    disagree.

    all kinds of companies are talking about making them. no one is selling a 32k bev in the u.s.

    nothing in china is real, it's all smoke and mirrors

    someone might make a car like the spark, not gonna cut it. to sell well, it will have to be at least cuv size
     
  19. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    The infrastructure I was referring to was their production one. They have one in place, while Tesla has to build one from scratch. The mistakes Tesla isaking now, VW and the established makes made decades ago, and have learned from them.

    That should give them a production cost edge over Tesla. Battery supply will be the weak link in the beginning. VW is claiming the BEVs made on their new platform will be priced around as much as a diesel model.

    The issue with dealers is an US only problem, and we are no longer the big auto market. Other countries have manufacturer owned dealerships, like Tesla stores.
     
  20. KennyGS

    KennyGS Senior Member

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    I have to believe that a Chinese company will step up with a very competitively priced, nicely appointed answer for you.