For Toyota, the crucial question is the electronics - latimes.com "So far, Toyota has proposed relatively low-cost fixes for the problems that cause sudden acceleration, such as a small shim for gas pedals that outside experts say probably costs a few pennies to produce. ... But if an electronics problem is found, new microprocessors or new engine control modules could be a lot more expensive, aside from labor costs. ... "'Rather than a few pennies it may amount to more than $100 per vehicle,' said Michael Pecht, director of an electronics reliability lab at the University of Maryland. 'My gut tells me that there is still more to come from Toyota.'" The LA Times is still looking for a smoking gun!
Do they use something other than Macintosh or Linux computers? I have to use something else at work and if that had been my only computer experience, would agree. But speculations are not evidence and mentioned in the article is this: Newsroom : Toyota Update: Exponent Report on the Company?s Electronic Throttle Control System / Toyota So I started looking and found: Exponent Also, I do my Prius experiments and investigations for fun and entertainment. Hopefully they have given folks a clue that we don't have to live in a world of imprecision and FUD. But Exponet Engineering is a quantum step above my limited resources and spare-time hobby. Bob Wilson
Well - did Toyota provide to Exponent any vehicles that had been involved in unintended acceleration incidents? That would seem to be the place to start, especially looking at vehicles that suffered brake damage while the driver attempted to stop the vehicle. There's little point in testing vehicles that are not alleged to have suffered from such incidents, since the failure rate is such a tiny % of the production run.
Problem diagnosis does not have to be linear and parallel investigations can work different aspects of the same problem. We often do that by forming "tiger teams" with mixed, disciplinary experts ... what Exponet appears to do for a living. I deal with a lot of network problems, my 'briar patch.' When two groups connected by a network have a problem, they soon both agree that the problem 'must be the network.' In about 1/3d of the time, they are right. But in 2/3ds of the time, root cause(s) trace back to one or both groups. We often have to educate them about what is going on, show them the data, and even help them patch or adjust the registry of their systems. Many times, the complaints mysteriously disappear ("Clear while testing.") Bob Wilson
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Bob, I thought that Heisenberg's uncertainty principle says that we DO have to live in a world of imprecision, and quantified the theoretical minimum we have to live with. Seriously, though, I think your distinction between logically possible hypotheses and or speculation and facts demonstrated by evidence is exactly right. However, I would say that if I were any modern auto manufacturer, I would certainly be investigating the hypotheses that electronic interference or software bugs could be behind some instances of unintended accelleration. As electronics take over the function of controlling cars, all car companies have to be looking at reducing the bugs in these systems and making sure that the signals going into these systems are not interfered with.
What about the operator error hypothesis? e.g. Inexperience, DWI, recklessness & lack of proper vehicle maintainence. How do these factors influence the outcome and are misrepresented as defective brakes, uncontrolled accelleration, etc?
I would be curious how much storage capacity the internal black boxes have. The first place I would think an accident investigation would look would be the black boxes. Depending on what datapoints were stored, you could get a fairly complete picture of what was happening with the various control systems from the point of accident backwards. Some manufacturers have a greater data logging capacity in their black boxes than others do (likely to frustrate attempts to 'tune' their cars by the aftermarket); but it would seem to be the best starting point.
The whole article just seems like more Toyota bashing, fear mongering. "If", if...if...huge "ifs". I'm sure Toyota has tested exhaustively the electronic and software components of their vehicles, especially in regards to throttle control. So this article is nothing more than inuendo and fear mongering. If the NHTSA wants to test? If anyone wants to test...go ahead. I'm not against a search for a smoking gun...but find the gun first then tell me about it. Right now tests that have been done support Toyota. I also think you have to compare it against the alternative and the past. Can electronics and software fail? Certainly. But so can cables and valves. The automobile industry must always strive for 0 defect. Whether that is mechanical or electronic. So go ahead and search for the smoking gun. But IMO it's not something unique to Toyota, all manufacturers of all automobiles are going to more and more electronic based systems within the auto. The Prius might be ahead of the curve, but Toyota is by no means the only manufacturer to employ electronic throttle control. The LA-Times can blast the headline in Neo-Glo Orange dripping blood red "If" they anyone finds the reality of that smoking gun. But without anything but a few isolated incidents and few agenda laced opinion right now all they have is another scary headline, more inuendo based on "If". Sure would be nice "If" the media would let up on fear mongering speculation and actually deal with facts. Look for the smoking gun..please do, but just a little let up on the whole cloth creation of nothing but inuendo based on unsubstantiated opinion would be nice.
My feelings exactly. Having been an LA Times subscriber for some 40+ years I am disgusted at the "yellow journalism" content now being indulged by the paper, which is increasingly resembling a throw-away rag peddling fear and terror. But that seems to be the media mantra today; "If it bleeds it leads" .... facts and solid data be damned!
There is no 'independent analysis' when you are investigating the group that is paying you. That is a problem with these kinds of scenarios.
With all due respect, I don't agree with this statement. Really what is the alternative? You either do all the testing and analysis in house or you pay another company to do independent analysis or you do both. Evidently Toyota did both. I suppose it's human nature to be suspicious, but at some point you have to trust. An independent company isn't going to be paid based on what the results are, only to get results. I think agencies like the NHTSA have a responsibility to review what tests have been run, run independent tests themselves if they feel it necessary or prudent. But if Toyota, who has the most to lose, and the biggest dog in the hunt, says they tested themselves and even went outside for independent testing unless there is evidence the testing was flawed or not thorough enough, then what do you do? Seems like with all this media hype, some people are almost to the point where they think Toyota "wanted" to put defective accelerator pedals in their cars or wanted complaints about inconsistency in 2010 Prius braking feel. Trust Me, Hindsight is 20/20. Independent analysis is sought in earnest to try and avoid nightmares like Toyota has faced recently.
Toyota invited this with their reaction to this over the preceding months. First there was not problem, then it ws the floor mats, now it is the accelerator. What will it be tomorrow. The 'know' within the industry says electronic problem and that there is evidence of a lengthy cover-up.
I posted this comment to the LA Time article: Unexpected, their web interface 'ate' my paragraph spaces. Still, it reads OK even as one blob of text. Bob Wilson
What 'evidence' is there? I personally doubt a cover-up like what occurred in Watergate; people gaming the system to get complaints to not be reviewed has already been documented with the ex-NHTSA employees who went to work for Toyota. Is that criminal? I doubt it. I guess we will have to see what happens at the congressional hearings.... I wonder if they will be postponed? There is the potential for another snow emergency.
