Leaf Sales Record

Not a fair comparison. What's the range of the Leaf without "e"?

 

Perhaps just as far as the Volt.....
People are singularly bad at making "fair" comparisons, since their individual biases and needs always creep into the models.

Personally?
I still think that the Leaf is more golf-cart than car, but that's because I don't live in a city with charge stations or conveniently placed exterior electrical outlets that I can steal electricity from however (comma!) if a bolt-on charge trailer + Leaf becomes cheaper than a Volt then that might skew my thinking a little since my daily commute to work is < 3 miles.

It's not at present, but I've always said that E-cars have a bright future (pun semi-intended) if allowed to evolve at their present rate.

Y(e)MMV.

 

Unless I'm missing something, the Leaf is dead in the water once the battery is depleted. The Volt can carry-on with gasoline.

 

One thing that is really nice is we have telematics and polls, so their is actually big data on both cars so we can answer these questions.

When the volt runs out of gas, gas stations are plentiful and refueling is fast. All one needs is a gas can to fix a stranded spot. Drivers have no extra range anxiety, but probably refuel with a couple of gallons left and they are on a long trip. So range from full fill plus full battery is about 300 miles with about 80 miles of gas left in the tank. In nasty driving conditions maybe 200 miles then find a station. ;-) Vot owners don't seem to self select, but they drive statistically like most of america.

When the leaf runs out of electricity you need a tow. There is range anxiety. L2 and Quick Chargers are not not nearly as easy to find as gas stations. Drivers will often want at least 25 miles of range before recharging that takes much longer than filling with gas. That leaves only 59 miles of acceptable range before recharging. Leaf drivers seem to self select, and have anouther car at home (swap with a child, parrent, or spouse) for longer milage. On cold days that 59 miles can shrink down quite a bit. Most leaf owners have commutes under 30 miles, leaving some range for errands.

Statisitcally each volt travels more electric miles. That is probably because of not only self selection, but also because an owner will take a volt on trips that a leaf owner will swap to a non-plug-in car. Both volt and leaf owners are asking for more miles.

The third car here is the bmw i3 rex. It has 71 aer range, but gas tank is shrunk to comply with carb regulations to 1.9 gallons, the size that most people probably refill a volt if they went that low. We don't have polls or telematic information yet because the car is too new. Let's say you need 30 miles in the gas tank, and it gets you 76 miles on full, that is 46 miles between refills. Initial full range than would be 117 miles. We don't know yet if on longer trips i3 owners will switch to other vehicles, but they can switch much later than in a leaf.

 

i3 is the most expensive of the three, yes?

 

Yes i3 rex is the most expensive at about $45,000 before tax breaks. That is expensive compared to a base leaf $29,000, but very inexpensive for cfrp with all those standard features. I'd probably get one, but the lease rates are not proportional, and don't trust a first year fairly exotic bmw to buy.

 

agreed, i would consider one too, but it's above my 'wanna spend' range.

 

Its not that, its about $11,000 more thn a volt, but in many ways much nicer. But I don't know if I still will think so in 3 or 4 years after the model 3 comes out, and that tiny gas tank probably would mean I'd carry a full gas can on longer trips. The lease rates though are more than double that of a volt which just seems too high, and I don't want to deal with risking the resale market.

I may keep the prius and get lease a ford focus ev whish are leasing really cheap here, or if the volt anouncement is good enough in january wait for that.

 

is the focus available everywhere? what the lease and range?

 

Its available as a wierd thing. If a dealer wants it they can sell it, and the local dealers here want it and have them.

Its $185, 36 month lease, but I haven't negotiated the down. Texas has $2500 incentive on plug-in cars sold by texas dealers here, and I heard (friend of a friend negotiated that incentive and $500 down). That isn't too much at all. I'm sure the leaf dealers are negotiating too, but its hot here, and I don't trust the battery or like the looks.

 

Which is why buying a Leaf is foolish if you only have one vehicle and regularly need more range than it offers.
Buy the right vehicle for the right job.
The vast majority of EV owners don't have range anxiety. Most people talking about range anxiety don't actually own an EV/PHEV.

It would be kind of like talking about hauling anxiety being a huge issue for Yaris owners.
If you need to haul a ton of bricks regularly, you aren't going to buy a Yaris.

 

Well yes and no. The range and the looks appear to be things that have hurt leaf sales in the US market. I agree that the majority of leaf buyers in the last couple of years are well informed and have self selected to not need a bev with anymore range. They do though say they would like more range when polled. That would allow them to take the leaf on trips that they are now taking a different car.

Nissan has done a number of things since the car was first released to lessen the negative. They have increased efficiciency especially in cold weather. They claim to have made the battery more stable in hot climates, and have promoted an affordable battery replacement cost ($5,500) as well as strengthened their battery waranty. All this has helped make 2015 their best year by far in the US market.

 

The leaf is a small niche market, not far from that of a golf-cart. Except of course for those who would buy it based on a single factor; namely EV range, ignoring all the others.

I think when you roll up all the factors together, the Prius delivers the highest overall score; fuel economy, interior space, performance, reliability, ride comfort and affordability. I think that bundle of considerations applies to most of us. Those who want everything in one package are out of luck with any other car.

 

But a Prius is still tied to gasoline. The appeal of an EV is in ditching the gasoline for at least a majority of user miles. While the Leaf and most other BEVs will require increased range to be considered by more people, they are far from a golf cart and the NEVs the real early adopters were driving.

 

I don't think most people would see "no gasoline" as an advantage, except in some global, environmentally-sensitive sense.

 

I don't quite get the golf cart comparison. Maybe you should test drive one. It is the lowest price national bev, that isn't badly compromised (smart and imev are tiny, the rest are only regional or much more money.

The prius falls short on the leaf in fuel economy, performance, and aditction to oil, cost for fuel. These are important factors to some.

interior space - 92 versus 94 cubic feet, not much difference.

The question really is do you have anouther car when you have a long trip. For daily commutes the leaf beats the prius in many catagories. I would put looks up there as where the prius beats the leaf

 

Leaf wins hands down for commuter and city driving. 5/7 days a week are 100% better on a Leaf vs the Prius. Then on the weekends we usually go somewhere so we take the Prius to the airport. 86-88miles with a few thousand feet elevation gain, then loss, then gain, then loss at 80+mph. The Leaf cannot make it in a single charge. But last weekend we took the Leaf to the airport's home city and put 150+ miles on it that day. Only took 15 minutes total to charge 'er up at the Quick Charge station. Today we are going to the airport as usual... Still undecided about taking the Leaf and relying on a public charge to make it to the airport or the Prius.

If the Leaf was the only vehicle, it would be a lot more stressful. And we are out in the boonies as well as having so much elevation change that is zaps your battery in no time. No quick chargers in my town, and less than 10 in the entire state. For people in Cali, I see no excuses for not driving a Leaf.

 

There are also personal finance and national security reasons for avoiding gasoline.

Oil may be cheap now, but for many electric will still be less per mile.
Lower oil demand gives the country less reason to get entangled with the Middle East. It also means less money for those hostile states that get most of their income from crude.

 

The US is now practically self-sufficient in oil, even without the Keystone pipeline. I don't see the security angle.