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Longer road to breakeven

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Dec 31, 2008.

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  1. DeadPhish

    DeadPhish Senior Member

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    And I'd have to agree with all three as well. If there were sufficient supplies of used Gen 2 Prius' back in 2005 I would have chosen one of those. I don't have to have the latest and greatest in my choice of rides. I probably will end up with a somewhat used 2009 Prius, or hopefully a well-cared-for 2010 Gen 3, when my 05 model reaches 250,000 mi in 4 years.
     
    #41 DeadPhish, Jan 2, 2009
  2. Fred_H

    Fred_H Misoversimplifier

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    You could also look at the historical record to see what it actually has been so far.
    According to Edmunds,
    a 2004 Matrix base sells for $7,531-$9,467
    a 2004 Matrix XR sells for $8,215-$10,191
    a 2004 Matrix XRS sells for $9,588-11,873
    a 2004 Prius base sells for $13,163-$17,051

    That makes somewhere between $3575 and $7,584 higher resale value for a Prius after four and a half years, depending on which you chose to compare. So the way it looks to me, if there really is a "hybrid premium" on the Prius, then you get it back plus interest when you sell.
     
    #42 Fred_H, Jan 2, 2009
  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I got tired to waiting for a correction so this is my last comment posted to the article:
    I probably could have written this better but the key elements are:

    • use the EPA, www.fueleconomy.gov, defined vehicle groups
    • limit the Prius comparison vehicle to something in this pool
    • initially share with the editor and/or reporter, give them a fair chance to fix the story
    An "apple-to-apples" comparison within a group of similar vehicles works but once anyone starts 'cherry picking' from another, well call them on it. Point out that if it is OK to choose any other car as long as they include the fact they are reaching outside of the EPA defined, "Family Sedan" group.

    With the price of gas down, no doubt, just like this reporter did, we will see more of these false comparison and payback stories. It is easier for a weak reporter to copy of bad idea than to do the job right. So here is the 'clue by four' to play 'whack a mole' on similar news stories that will show up.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #43 bwilson4web, Jan 2, 2009
  4. JSH

    JSH Senior Member

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    Exactly, we wouldn't want people quoting this story and spreading evil lies about the Prius. After all, the meat of the story is that 4 of 4 Prius owners interviewed are still happy with their purchase. LIES, LIES LIES! :D;):D
     
    #44 JSH, Jan 2, 2009
  5. JSH

    JSH Senior Member

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    Very true. However that was in a time of rapidly increasing gasoline prices and a limited number of new Prius for sale. Dealers were often asking thousands of dollars above MSRP for a new Prius and wait lists were measured in months.

    If gasoline prices shoot back up we might expect to see very strong resale on the Prius. If gasoline prices stay low and Toyota is selling new models below MSRP then I would expect the price of used Prius models to fall.

    Just like in the stock market, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
     
    #45 JSH, Jan 2, 2009
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    EPA "Station Wagons" from Fuel Economy

    Toyota Matrix 4 cyl, 1.8 L. Automatic 4-spd, Regular
    25/31 - $889 EPA fuel cost
    $17,030 MSRP - Kelly Blue Book

    ​
    Volkswagen Jetta SportWagon 4 cyl, 2 L, Automatic (S6), Diesel
    29/41 - $1,100 EPA fuel cost
    $25,340 MSRP - Kelly Blue Book
    ​
    Now we are comparing two "Station Wagons" and the Volkswagen Jetta has better fuel economy than the Toyota Matrix. Unfortunately, it costs more to fill the tank and it cost more to drive off the lot.

    Stay within the vehicle categories, something that Kelly and even Edmunds uses and you have a powerful "clue by four" to deflate the false claims. Enjoy!

    Bob Wilson
     
    #46 bwilson4web, Jan 2, 2009
  7. JSH

    JSH Senior Member

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    OK Bob,

    I see that your sticking with "Market Class" instead of EPA class, even though you early posted the very clear standards the EPA uses to group vehicles.

    From fueleconomy.gov "Family Sedans" category

    2009 Hyundai Elantra SE PZEV
    Passenger Volume 98 cu ft + Cargo Volume 14 cu ft = 112 cu ft Interior Volume
    EPA Fuel Economy 25/28/32
    Annual Fuel Cost = $889
    MSRP = $17,821
    This is the highest trim level Elantra and is much better equipped than the Prius. Some of the extra things you get on the Hyundai: heated mirrors, cruise control, height adjustable driver seat, telescoping wheel, overhead console, tachometer, stability control, fog lights, anti-theft alarm, XM radio, MP3 input, USB connection, longer warranty, and better crash ratings.

    2009 Toyota Prius (Standard)
    Passenger Volume 96 cu ft + Cargo Volume 16 cu ft = 112 cu ft Interior Volume
    EPA Fuel Economy = 48/46/45
    Annual Fuel Cost = $540
    MSRP = $22,000

    After 12 years you will have recovered the extra $4179 purchase price with the $349 annual fuel savings.

    Again, a conventional ICE car that cost ~ $4,000 less than a Prius. This one comes loaded versus the stripped Prius.
    Comparator - Features
     
    #47 JSH, Jan 2, 2009
  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Either "Market Class" or "EPA Size Class" works for me. The key is to keep it within the same class of vehicle. So if we look at the best and worst:
    Toyota Prius 4 cyl, 1.5 L, Automatic (variable gear ratios), HEV, Regular
    48/45 - $540/year fuel cost
    $25,340 MSRP - Kelly Blue Book

    Listed in "EPA Size Class"
    Ferrari 612 Scaglietti 12 cyl, 5.7 L, Automatic 6-spd, Premium
    9/16 - $2,618/year fuel cost
    $282,337 MSRP - Kelly Blue Book
    never breakeven

    Listed in "Market Class"
    Pontiac G6 6 cyl, 3.9 L, Automatic (S4), Regular
    15/22 - $1,384/year fuel cost
    $28,495 MSRP - Kelly Blue Book
    never breakeven
    ​
    Ok, you win. I like "EPA Size Class" so I can choose the most expensive, least efficient member of that class. <GRINS>

    Of course the other alternative is to choose the next, most fuel efficient, non-hybrid member of that class:
    Nissan Versa 4 cyl, 1.8 L, Automatic (variable gear ratios), Regular
    27/33 - $859/year fuel cost
    $16,685 MSRP - Kelly Blue Book
    27 years to fuel only breakeven
    ​
    Sure this makes the Nissan Versa appear to be the pick of the litter of "Family Sedans." I'm actually good with that but the reporter failed to do this analysis. Instead the reporter claims to have used the Toyota Corolla found in the "Small Cars" group.

    Instead of comparing the exteme ends or nearest non-hybrid, just average the price and fuel economy of the whole class. Using the average of the market "Family Sedans" and we find the Prius is just below the middle in cost and beats everything else in fuel costs. Do it for the "EPA Class" and the Prius is absolutely brilliant. The average works along the lines of including Bill Gates in any income averaging scheme or in this case, the most expensive in price neutralizes the cheapest.

    Better still, is to map the price-performance ratio of all vehicles in that class. This becomes a way to carefully choose which vehicle you want and make reasoned tradeoffs in price-performance. But the price-performance ratio should also include end-of-life, vehicle value, the depreciation, as well as other vehicle operational costs. But again, the reporter failed to do even this most basic kind of 'life cycle analysis.'

    Here are some real examples:

    ​
    Bob Wilson
     
    #48 bwilson4web, Jan 2, 2009
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Pat offered one of the best points, Prius vs. gas-car depreciation. Common knowledge is a new car depreciates but uncommon knowledge is our Prius don't depreciate at the same rate. Fortunately, Kelly and Edmunds are there to let us document this so let's use it. Off hand, the depreciation differential considerably reduces the price differential.

    It turns out one of the best buys is a used Prius. It costs as much as a new "gas-only" and beats the heck out of the other vehicle's fuel expense. This is what I did when I bought my $17,300, 2003 Prius in 2005 versus a slightly cheaper, new Scion xB. I still had over 50,000 miles of hybrid system warranty too. A used car won't have any significant warranty. But remember, we're changing the premise of the original article.

    Use the "clue by four," vehicle class, and get the reporter to go back and do their research. If they figure it out, more power to them. If not, darn, darn, darn, we win! <grins>

    Bob Wilson
     
    #49 bwilson4web, Jan 2, 2009
  10. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    It is *soo* past time for Americans to get past the initial cost differential of hybrids, and clamor for choices that cost them no more over time, but keep massive amounts of money in the country -- to the tune of 700 Billion a year.
     
    #50 SageBrush, Jan 2, 2009
  11. robbyr2

    robbyr2 New Member

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    I would note that although Consumer Reports gives good marks to the Matrix (which it says is based on the Corolla) for fuel mileage and reliability, it gives low marks for fit and finish and engine noise. It also notes that 93% of Prius owners say they would buy another Prius. Only 67% of Matrix owners say the same thing (putting them way down the list of wagons).

    We just have to face it... with the 100s of car and truck models available, "comparable" is really subjective. And with NGV and all-electrics, along with other hybrid types in development, it isn't going to get any easier!

    Compared to the S-10 pickup the Prius replaced, the latter is great. Even if gas prices drop to the 28 cents it was in 1972 when I started driving!
     
    #51 robbyr2, Jan 4, 2009
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