1. Attachments are working again! Check out this thread for more details and to report any other bugs.

Lotteries Dissolve Brain Molecules

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by airportkid, Mar 31, 2012.

  1. airportkid

    airportkid Will Fly For Food

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2005
    2,191
    538
    0
    Location:
    San Francisco Bay Area CA
    Vehicle:
    2005 Prius
    People will stand in line to buy a ticket for a multi-mega-million payout but ignore lotteries with only 7 or 8 figure payouts, even though even just a 7 figure payout can give you lifetime financial independence.

    No one ever deliberately picks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 as a potential winner, even though its chance of being the winner is equal to any other combination. If you held a lottery ticket of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and would feel hopeless about its prospects of ever being a winner, that's how hopeless you should feel about ANY lottery ticket.

    People buy multiple tickets thinking it improves their odds. Mathematically that's true, but in practical terms it's approximately equivalent to improving your odds of getting struck by 8 meteors in succession to only getting struck by 7 meteors in succession.

    Lottery winners invariably attribute their win to favor bestowed on them by a god, even though the laws of probability assure that there will always be a winner.
     
  2. Southern Dad

    Southern Dad Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2011
    350
    212
    58
    Location:
    Monroe, GA
    Vehicle:
    2011 Prius
    Model:
    Three
    I usually purchase one Quick Pick MegaMillions each drawing. So I'm spending $104 per year on lottery. I'd like to say it is an investment. We have a husband and wife at my work that hit the lottery for a couple million, several years ago. They invested in a fast food restaurant but still work their regular jobs.
     
  3. jadziasman

    jadziasman Prius owner emeritus

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2011
    1,355
    486
    0
    Location:
    District 6
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    Lotteries are easy ways for governments to collect extra revenue. Most "gamblers" understand that the odds of winning are outrageously miniscule but an optimist will always look on the bright side.

    Lloyd Christmas remained hopeful even after Mary Swanson told him he had a one in a million chance to hook up with her.

    After all, charities conduct raffles, why shouldn't govenments?

    So as to lotteries, I'm all for them as long as they remain voluntary.
     
    1 person likes this.
  4. TonyPSchaefer

    TonyPSchaefer Your Friendly Moderator
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    May 11, 2004
    14,816
    2,496
    66
    Location:
    Far-North Chicagoland
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Advanced
    The truth is that when one person wins it's because God is punishing the other several million who played and lost.
     
  5. wick1ert

    wick1ert Senior Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2009
    1,311
    183
    2
    Location:
    Delawhere
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    III
    This is the first time I've bought a ticket. I figured that even if the odds are miniscule, for the possible reward I'd risk a couple dollars. I've spent way more going to, and gambling in Vegas that doing this periodically pales in comparison lol. That said, I might look at some of the smaller payout ones locally that have much higher odds of winning.

    Most people want the "big one" so they think they'll be set for life (most likely will be, but never underestimate the stupidity of people). I'd be happy winning $1000 because that could be a nice vacation for me, towards the mortgage, etc. Anything I didn't have initially is like a bonus!
     
  6. Rokeby

    Rokeby Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2008
    3,033
    708
    75
    Location:
    Ballamer, Merlin
    Vehicle:
    2008 Prius
    Thanks to Daniel...

    I see it clearly now. This whole lottery thing is nothing more
    than a vulgar permutation of Pascal's Wager.

    Only a fool would fail to play. :D

    Lottery player's prayers:

    Lord, let me break even.
    Lord, let me win so that I can show you that I can spend $X millions wisely.
     
  7. Stev0

    Stev0 Honorary Hong Kong Cavalier

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2006
    7,201
    1,073
    0
    Location:
    Northampton, MA
    Vehicle:
    2022 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    I knew the odds of me winning were roughly the same as that of Dane Cook actually saying something funny, but I bought a couple of tickets because there's a difference between "almost zero" and "zero".
     
  8. Southern Dad

    Southern Dad Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2011
    350
    212
    58
    Location:
    Monroe, GA
    Vehicle:
    2011 Prius
    Model:
    Three
    Yes, the odds of winning increase if you actually buy a ticket. I bought one and missed on every number. What are the odds of that? No, don't bother calculating it ain't pretty.
     
  9. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2004
    14,487
    1,518
    0
    Location:
    Spokane, WA
    Vehicle:
    2004 Prius
    If you win a million. Uncle Sam takes about a third. Now you can invest your $667,000 at maybe 4% if you're willing to invest in junk bonds, or about 3% in a not-too-risky bond fund. So 3% yield gives you $20K per year, and Uncle Sam takes a third of that, leaving you with a bit over $13,000 a year. Not bad, but not jet-set either.

    If you're willing to take bigger risks, you might get 5% yield and have a bit over $22K per year after taxes.

    Since buying a lottery ticket is about buying dreams (not really about any significant chance of winning) you need at least 9 figures.

    Instead of buying a ticket, I just picked six numbers: 56 8 7 52 6 4. I'd have lost my dollar. I'm glad I didn't play. :D
     
    1 person likes this.
  10. hyo silver

    hyo silver Awaaaaay

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2005
    15,232
    1,562
    0
    Location:
    off into the sunset
    Vehicle:
    2004 Prius
    Model:
    N/A
    Lottery winnings are tax-free in Canada. You'll pay tax on the income you earn from your investments, but not the initial proceeds. Of course, the government's only too happy to collect all the idiot tax....:rolleyes:
     
  11. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2009
    17,035
    10,010
    90
    Location:
    Western Washington
    Vehicle:
    Other Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    Under a previous state lottery system, much smaller than these multistate games, over 3000 people picked this combination when playing for one of the near-record jackpots. If I remember correctly, had this number been the winner, the payout per winning ticket would have been smaller than the prize for getting only 5 out of 6 numbers.

    The newspaper article listed some other combinations that also had anomalously high numbers of players. Nearly all of them from simple geometric patterns on the number grid of the entry form.
     
  12. Rae Vynn

    Rae Vynn Artist In Residence

    Joined:
    May 21, 2007
    6,038
    707
    0
    Location:
    Tumwater, WA USA
    Vehicle:
    2007 Prius
    Model:
    Two
    We won $1000 once.

    We view it as "entertainment" value. I don't usually participate, but DH does. He said he'd share his winnings with me. Oh, and yes, we'd be very happy with 2nd place. Or a much lower win... just enough to do a little more travel. :)
     
  13. Stev0

    Stev0 Honorary Hong Kong Cavalier

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2006
    7,201
    1,073
    0
    Location:
    Northampton, MA
    Vehicle:
    2022 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    That reminds me of the very first time I went to a casino. I was playing the quarter slots, and after about my second or third game I won $120. "Great!" I said to my then-wife. "Let's go and have a really nice dinner somewhere!"

    She looked at me like I was an idiot (which I am, but that's beside the point). "We didn't come here to win money," she explained, "We came here to play slots." Thus enlightened, I then pumped most of it back into the machine.
     
  14. Southern Dad

    Southern Dad Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2011
    350
    212
    58
    Location:
    Monroe, GA
    Vehicle:
    2011 Prius
    Model:
    Three
    I simply plan one quick pick for each MegaMillions drawing but if you do pick your own numbers, I would advise always picking one number 32 or higher. A lot of people play birthdays. Thus the winnings with lower numbers have more chance of being split between multiple winners.
     
  15. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2004
    14,487
    1,518
    0
    Location:
    Spokane, WA
    Vehicle:
    2004 Prius
    My mother once won the smallest prize in the Irish Sweepstakes. It was either $50 or 50 BPS, I forget which, though back then that was worth a lot more than it is now. She never won anything else for the rest of her life.

    As a child I collected coins for a while, and the coin club ran a raffle at its monthly meetings. Twice I won a $5 gold piece and a couple of times I won lesser prizes. I think the drawings were rigged and the officers were skimming, but it looked good if a kid won. Or maybe there were just so few people buying tickets that my chances were always high. You got seven tickets for a dollar so the basket looked like there were more participants than there were.

    In Vegas I put one dollar once into a slot machine so I could watch the wheels go around, but it was no fun because they were only a video simulation, not real wheels; and I bet one dollar once on the roulette wheel, because I'd always wanted to. (It was a $10 minimum, but I asked the croupier if I could bet one dollar once and she let me.) I thought it would be fun to watch the little ball go around, but it was just dull. So altogether I bet and lost two dollars. I also saw two Cirque du Soleil shows, two magic shows, and the Follies Bergere, which consisted of naked women prancing around, and the funniest comedian I've ever heard. That last was free because I "won" a free ticket. They gave away tickets because they assumed you'd have to buy another for a companion, but I don't have a companion.
     
  16. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2011
    2,171
    659
    23
    Location:
    Maine
    Vehicle:
    2007 Prius
    Model:
    II
    The important question is not the odds of winning, but rather the expected value. A larger jackpot has a higher expected value (because of all those people who have already lost). For large enough jackpots, the expected value will exceed the cost of the ticket.
     
  17. HaveNoCents

    HaveNoCents Conservative Tree Hugger

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2011
    299
    46
    0
    Location:
    Crystal Beach, Texas
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius v wagon
    Model:
    Five
    Donate the money to charity, at least it will do some good. Originally most states earmarked the money for education. Most states now found a way to sneak it to their general fund to overspend as they wish.

    I haven't bought a lottery ticket in over 20 years. It all adds up to a pretty decent sum when you consider most money invested even conservatively will double every 8-9 years. It's far better to have a plan on how to attain wealth without hoping for money falling from the sky.

    The sad part is when you see people waiting in line to buy a ticket at least 30% of them look like they don't know where their next meal is coming from.


    iPad ?
     
  18. Southern Dad

    Southern Dad Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2011
    350
    212
    58
    Location:
    Monroe, GA
    Vehicle:
    2011 Prius
    Model:
    Three
    Over the last few years the Harrah's Cherokee Casino has mailed me four vouchers for a free two night stay in one of their suites. I'm sure that they are sending me these because they think that I will gamble in their casinos. However, my companion is always my 9-year-old daughter who is too young to enter the gambling floor. But I'll keep going as long as they keep sending the vouchers.

    I got on the mailing list because I once played in one of their Texas Hold'em Tournaments.
     
  19. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2008
    11,627
    2,530
    8
    Location:
    Southwest Colorado
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius v wagon
    Model:
    Two
    That is two dollars more than me. Gambling is endemic in so many cultures, I have to believe it is serving (to a degree) a common psychological need I was not born with.

    I used to think it was a mini stimulant -- that for the few seconds while the wheel is spinning or the ticket is being torn open, reality is put on hold and the person is excited. This might be true in part, but I walked into a casino a couple years ago, and there was no mistaking the abject boredom of the the people playing the slot machines. It looked like work in a factory: put in a coin, pull the lever. put in a coin, pull the lever ...

    Now, gambling when I think the odds are stacked in my favor -- that I like.
    I was a talented backgammon player as a teenager, and thought I would try winning some money at the clubs in Las Vegas. I brought my game board all the way from home. Unfortunately no one would gamble against me, and eventually I was kicked out when it became clear I was underage to buy liquor. One fellow did teach me a lifelong lesson I am grateful for though: he looked at me a moment, and said "I see you brought your cue." LOL
     
  20. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2008
    11,627
    2,530
    8
    Location:
    Southwest Colorado
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius v wagon
    Model:
    Two
    Please explain