Man Based Global Warming....

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by dbermanmd, Dec 22, 2008.

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  1. JSH

    JSH Senior Member

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    I am well aware that my graphs show a difference in scale; that was my point.

    Why should we be concerned about a very rapid rise in temperature over the last 100 years? The timespan of our planet's climate is measured billions or years. We know temperature fluctuated greatly over that timespan.

    "First, at many locations, there exist large temperature fluctuations on multi-centennial scales. Hence, climate change lasting for centuries appears to be a common feature of many regions."

    [​IMG]

    The anomaly I see in this graph is the past 10,000 years. The earth's temperature has been abnormally stable and humans have flourished. Temperatures have been ~ 6 degrees warmer than normal. However, it is incredibly arrogant on our part to think that we can somehow break the natural cycles of the earth and force our will on the globe.

    BTW, all my graphs have come from wikipedia.com / global warming
     
  2. Alric

    Alric New Member

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    Yes. However, the observation is that our emissions are warming the planet unnaturally and to levels not seen in the past couple of millenia. It is a logical fallacy to conclude that because the weather has changed in the past we could not be the cause of it now. Both statements can be true and it appears they are.

    It is not arrogant. It is what the data bears.

    I am linking a better written exposition:

    Global warming and natural climate change in the past

    Global warming and natural climate change in the past

    The skeptic argument...
    Earth's climate has changed long before we were pouring CO2 into the atmosphere. Europe was far warmer in the Middle Ages. During the 17th and 18th century, it was much colder, prompting the ‘The Little Ice Age’, when the Thames was frozen over months at a time. Further back, there were times when the Earth was several degrees hotter than current temperatures. Warming of several degrees often took only centuries or decades.

    What the science says...
    The usual drivers of natural climate change have shown little to no warming trend since the 70's.

    It's a well established fact that climate changes naturally and sometimes dramatically. The pertinent question isn't "has climate changed in the past?" (of course it has) but "what is causing global warming now?" To begin to answer that, it's helpful to look at the major causes of natural climate change in the past.

    Solar activity
    Solar variations have been the major driver of climate change over the past 10,000 years. When sunspot activity was low during the Maunder Minimum in the 1600's or the Dalton Minimum in the 1800's, the earth went through 'Little Ice Ages'. Similarly, solar activity was higher during the Medieval Warm Period.

    However, the correlation between solar activity and global temperatures ended around 1975. At that point, temperatures started rising while solar activity stayed level. This led a team of scientists from Finland and Germany to conclude "during these last 30 years the solar total irradiance, solar UV irradiance and cosmic ray flux has not shown any significant secular trend, so that at least this most recent warming episode must have another source." More on the sun & global warming...

    Milankovitch cycles
    Earth's climate undergoes 120,000 year cycles of ice ages broken by short warm periods called interglacials. The cycle is driven by Milankovitch cycles. Long term changes in the Earth's orbit trigger an initial warming which warms the oceans and melts ice sheets - this releases CO2. The extra CO2 in the atmosphere causes further warming leading to interglacials ending the ice ages.



    For the past 12,000 years, we've been in an interglacial. The current trend of the Milankovitch cycle is a gradual cooling down towards an ice age.

    Volcanoes
    Volcanic eruptions spew sulfate aerosols into the atmosphere which has a cooling effect on global temperatures. These aerosols reflect incoming sunlight, causing a 'global dimming' effect. Usually, the cooling effect lasts several years until the aerosols are washed out of the atmosphere. In the case of large eruptions or a succession of eruptions such as in the early 1800's, the cooling effect can last several decades. Strong volcanic activity exacerbated the Little Ice Age in the 1800's.

    Summary
    The usual suspects in natural climate change - solar variations, volcanoes, Milankovitch cycles - are all conspicuous in their absence over the past 3 decades of warming. This doesn't mean by itself that CO2 is the main cause of current global warming - you don't prove anthropogenic warming by eliminating all other options. But the primary causes of commonly cited climate change in the past have played little part in the current warming trend.

    As for CO2, empirical observations show that CO2 has a warming effect as a greenhouse gas, CO2 is increasing in the atmosphere and the expected warming you would get from greenhouse gases is occuring. Any alternative theory that found a different cause of global warming would also need to explain why the expected (and observed) warming from CO2 has not eventuated.
     
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  3. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    Like all climate discussions (whether on PC or not), everybody virtually always centers on the "exciting" and "emotional" topic of Global Warming.

    The boring aspect of dumping into the atmosphere every single carbon atom extracted from the ground and burned is apparently not a worthy issue in itself.

    Boring questions to consider:
    1) The ocean's pH is changing. Is this of any concern whatsoever?
    2) Do we want the carbon burning to stop only due to running out of hydrocarbons to burn?
    3) Where in history have we dumped megatons of pollution continually and not have had a problem occur? (I'm pretty surprised that this gets no airplay. Is the only possible impact on life of CO2 concentrations being increased dramatically some long term climate change?)
     
  4. JSH

    JSH Senior Member

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    30 years in a 10K year cycle is a rounding error. We will enter another ice age and it will be devastating to the human population. However life will go on. It is arrogant to assume that the human population is special in a timespan of billions of years.

    We should be VERY scared of entering another ice age. It seams that the natural temperature of the earth is 5 to 6 degrees C LOWER than it is now.

    My concern with global warming is that it is consuming billions of dollars in research funds for something that may be a problem. However, we know we have huge global problems today that need to be fixed. Problems like disease, hunger, poverty, etc. These causes are being swept aside by the developed world to focus on CO2.
     
  5. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    Yes ... a few questions:

    - What caused the rapid 0.6 C temperature increase from 1910 to 1940 when CO2 levels were relatively low?
    - Why did temperatures fall from the 1940s until around 1980, even as the amount of fossil fuels burned (and CO2 added to the atmosphere) increased dramatically?
    - Why don't you clearly show the last 10 years - with ever increasing levels of CO2 and flat to cooling global temps?

    I guess these observations run counter to the argument that temperature and CO2 are moving in "lockstep".
     
  6. darelldd

    darelldd Prius is our Gas Guzzler

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    My "feelings" on this subject are nicely summed up in this missive from a Starbuck's coffee cup:

    Just ignore global warming and climate change if it upsets you or you don't "believe". There are PLENTY of reasons to change our ways even if we aren't causing global warming. Continuing to pollute at the same levels we have been because there's no proof that we're causing global climate change is... is... well, I have no word for it. Stupid doesn't do it justice.
     
  7. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    I agree totally,,, complete arrogance to think man has an influence on global climate -

    And the leap of faith here is staggering,,, trust me,, i know what the worlds climate will be in 100 years yet we cant predict things 1/10 as complex with any degree of certainty....

    Catch this one,,, global warming is causing the earth to cool down,,,, or,,, global warming is causing the most severe winter conditions ever seen over the past half century....
     
  8. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    Hi back to you too, and wishes for a Happy Holiday Season and New Year,,

    And the evidence that any of the temperature variations we have seen are due to mankinds influence on the plantet?

    Seems to me, the rocket scientists that are trying to prove their null hypothesis need to provide the jury with incontrovertible proof - still way too much doubt in this jurors mind,,, and more than enough doubt before i would create any more govt bodies to either tax or cap and trade carbon - especially given the potential for economic injury which imho would have greater negative impact on man and the environment.

    mind you i believe we should treat the environment with respect,,, i for one heat my house with two wood pellet stoves,,, heat my house and pool water using the suns energy and own two hybrids (prius and camry)...
     
  9. icarus

    icarus Senior Member

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    Darrell has it right,

    As for waiting for incontrovirtible proof,,, What can I say? This just in to Week end update....Generalisimo Francisco Franco is still DEAD!

    Get a clue folks!

    Icarus
     
  10. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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    I always surprised by this statement. Why wouldn't a doubling of CO2 in <300 years have an effect on the equilibrium of the climate? It's a known heat trapping gas. To say that there is no way we can or are affecting the climate, even though 99.9% of peer reviewed science says we can and we are, is what's truly and massively arrogant.

    There comes a time when even the most stubborn person must come to the realization that that much denial, in the face of overwhelming evidence, is nothing short of a major psychological deficiency. That's not healthy skepticism, that's insanity. Nobody should be that arrogant.

    With a little imagination it shouldn't be so hard to get past the denial stage.

    Long term, what's going to happen to the climate and consequently our civilization if 10s of millions of people continue coming into the middle class every year? Our world wide emissions can only go up tremendously if we don't get off fossil fuels. Fortunately it looks like Obama is going to lead the world out of this malaise of in-action that's plagued us thus far.

    So deny AGW all you want. Come late January you won't have like-minded people in power anymore. Nahhh! :p
     
  11. Mjolinor

    Mjolinor New Member

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    Whatever happens is it really of any consequence?

    Obama will not lead the world anywhere, he may steer America somewhere positive but the world will not follow, I do think that the world is streets ahead of the US on this issue anyway, it will take the US a few years to catch up.

    But looking at the whole picture it doesn't really matter anyway. If we make this planet incapable of supporting human type life then it will cease to exist and something else will evolve to take it's place, as it has always been. If you are interested in preserving the human species for some bizarre reason then I hope you have looked at all the reasons for doing it. To me the negative side of the human species far outweigh the positive side. I think we should blame Darwin.
     
  12. viking31

    viking31 Member

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    Who doesn't want the above? I do, BUT I (along with thousands of other credible scientists, climatologists, and weather experts) don't believe in AGW, the silly concepts of "tipping points" (reference to oil reserves, CO2 concentrations, and such), hence the unnecessary, wasteful spending on "solutions" which will not in any way achieve these lofty goals in a meaningful way.

    Want better efficiency of autos, cleaner energy? Then sell it to the public in a better way. This over and over again Chicken Little the sky is falling preaching is wearing thin. Record cold winter temperatures worldwide, quiet hurricane seasons year after year, and that nonsensical hockey stick graph; and the best the AGW believers can come up with is "Yes, this is proof that AGW does exist"...

    Rick
    #4 2006
     
  13. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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    I hope you don't have any kids. I'm hoping my kids' future is good, and that includes being able to bringing their kids into a healthy, prosperous future.
     
  14. qbee42

    qbee42 My other car is a boat

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    I think this thread is causing global warming. All of the hot air has to go somewhere.

    Tom
     
  15. Mjolinor

    Mjolinor New Member

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    Two kids, one male one female. An unfortunate consequence of a pleasurable act. :)

    Your "hoping my kid's future ....." is just a matter of genetic programming.
     
  16. viking31

    viking31 Member

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    No need to worry Tom ;-). Someone has already figured out how to profit from our hot air... Surprise, Surprise...

    This thread should be temporarily discontinued until someone puts a quarter in one of the $163,000 of taxpayer/traveler funded carbon offset kiosks at the SFO airport. Must be nice to live in a city that has not suffered the economic problems the rest of the US has.

    Could someone who lives in San Fran drive to SFO and take care of that for us. Oh, and BTW, let us know how long the line is at the carbon offset machine kiosk, if it is more than a hour wait...

    I hope/trust the incoming administration mandates a carbon offset fee (mind you not a TAX, but a FEE) on every airline ticket (and every electric bill, and every gallon of fuel, and every box of cereal, and every bottle of water, and...). Then I won't have to wait in that pesky carbon offset kiosk line every day.

    Rick
    #4 2006
     
  17. Stev0

    Stev0 Honorary Hong Kong Cavalier

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    Why don't you ask the polar bears if global warming is real? Tell me what they say.
     
  18. viking31

    viking31 Member

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    That's not the argument. For all I care the world could be warming (or cooling) by 1 degree every week. The question is 1) if any temperature variation (whether perceived or real) is AGW and 2) even if the globe is warming (or cooling) can mankind actually produce any verifiable or measurable change to the worlds climate, both short and long term.

    I, along with many others, say no to both.

    Rick
    #4 2006
     
  19. qbee42

    qbee42 My other car is a boat

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    I'm putting my tinfoil hat back on.

    Tom
     
  20. Mjolinor

    Mjolinor New Member

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    Useless fact: The words Arctic and Antarctic come from Greek, meaning, with bears and without bears.

    Happy Christmas.
     
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