Mar-Jun 2013, Hybrid Dashboard Report

Isn't that equivalent to a Prius PHV also?...

Another query...How many Volts have been sold in Japan so far?

 

This Volt alone clearly isn't enough. GM must offer something else. Those recent sales numbers clearly confirm that.

Meanwhile, we watch the automakers spell out and implement their plans. What is GM's goal?

 

Each generation has delivered notable improvement. The augmentation from the plug took it a step further.

It's quite fascinating on my commute home to climb out of the base of the river valley, in the on ramp that turns into a truck lane due to the steepness, with a cold engine running at just 1500 RPM. I simply get up to flow of traffic, about 60 mph, and just merge in. It's this remarkably smooooooth climb. Right before I reach the top, the boost runs out. RPM then ramps up to 2300. What a difference that electricity makes.

With the next generation, we are expecting more mitigation. Increased thermal-efficiency should cut down on warm-up time. So when you do have a cold engine start, there's even less of a penalty. Of course, even in that extreme example I have, that initial warm-up efficiency is still over 50 MPG. Seeing that even higher in the future will be great.

 

0.
I expect there to be 0 volts, 0 tesla S, and 0 ford energi's sold in Japan. The Japanese have "soft" trade barriers that punish people for selling and servicing such foreign cars. It really is a very closed market. IIRC less than 5% of cars in Japan are foreign manufactured non-Japanese name plates, making bringing one of these cars over there a losing proposition. SUVs are the only american manufactured vehicles likely to make money there.

These cars will sell in Europe and China, but its a slower roll out.

I expect that promotions move figures of the leaf and volt up and down against each other, and volt sales will not really take off until a next generation model. until then sales are slightly ahead of last year, but not much.

Here are US plug-in figures through July, ford figures come out today, tesla is anyones guess, we have a good estimate of sales, but not the split between Europe and the US. In August plug-in sales in the US in 2013, should exceed sales in all of 2012. Predictions are around a 100% growth rate yoy, as sales are predicted to accelerate at the end of the year. At least 50% growth is a safe bet.
http://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Monthly-Plug-In-Sales-July-2013-v6.png

 

I don't know about the others - but Tesla in Japan is a very hot commodity. They opened up a sales office last month in Japan.
Tesla opens sales office in western Japan - HybridEV

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I though the C had a non-Prius name in Japan. The v is just a wagon. I wish we got more wagon versions of cars in the US.

What is there to know? Plug it in at home. Drive it like a regular car. If gas is used, fill up as needed like a traditional car.

The only question the average person has about how a car works, is does it? If asked, most people on the street probably don't know what a torque convertor is. Only enthusiasts care about how it works, and the info is out there.

Toyota could have sold more PPI. That's an advantage. At current sales rates, there is a month more inventory of the PPI than the Volt. Why delay when there is stock on hand?

The only thing intimidating about the PPI is its price. At $6000(about $3000 with tax credit) more than a comparable non-plug in, does it other enough for the out of pocket expense. Toyota had to offer discounts and incentives in order to move them on the east coast. With those, some have gotten a PPI for less than a regular Prius. How often has Toyota offered incentives on the Prius?

So what is Toyota's plan for reaching mainstream with a plug in of any type? The Rav4 EV is only sold in California, with no plans of expanding its market. The eQ was cancelled, and apparently other Toyota BEVs with it. The most current news of the NS4 PHV is of it doing the auto show rounds in South America. Production plans for it are still just rumor. The plug in that should be the easiest for consumers, who generally hate change, to except is only sold in 14 states.

A small battery upgrade and a plug will improve fuel economy by reducing the warm up penalty, is a safe assumption. I think people that have done PHV conversions that don't have a full EV mode can attest to this. But the question I have with such a scale plug in is wouldn't an engine block heater give much of the benefit for a fraction of the cost? The block heater might be taken a step further with heating elements for the cat. convertor. I know they have heating pads for batteries and transmissions to use with block heaters in areas of really harsh winters.

 

I am a tesla stock holder and there is no indication they expect real sales there. I will be pleasantly surprised if this is any more than a pr move. I do now see that some individual japanese have imported roadsters. Thanks for the correction.

There are some real orders in china, small right now (hundreds), and some major marketing opportunities going on there.
Tesla Motors Looks To China With Cautious Optimism - Gas 2

 

Don't know - but I'd guess it's all wait list . . . . otherwise we'd be hearing about right hand drive manufacturing already. considering how huge the import taxes are - I'd hate to think what the wait list folks are being quoted for pricing

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Tesla is not going to make RHD until 2014, no reason to do a manufacturing change when all the LHD are spoken for.

Ford does sell some special japanese edition (I think LHD) mustangs for about $60K over there. Who knows. I can't image this will be a major market for Tesla, but it is likely a pride thing. Even if they only sell 100 a year, they can use it for some PR, and perhaps get toyota to buy more of their technology for the Japanese market. It doesn't really make much sense to me for Tesla to waste the effort, but its the first bad management decision I've heard from the company.

Found this old jewel
Tesla Motors Plans Japan Push - WSJ.com
I guess it may have worked primarily for investment capital. Tesla no longer is thinking Japan will be a major market.

Invest $50M, get a free roadster. Toyota's $50M must be worth more than $200 M today with the stock appreciation.

 

I think Gen III Tesla, the smaller vehicle, will be popular here, in Japan and elsewhere.

Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Mitsubishi will collaborate on charging network in Japan

 

There are multiple things wrong with this.

Using combined EPA mpg estimates is fine for a 32 mile hypothetical trip but becomes a bit unfair for a 100 mile trip for cars which get substantially better highway than city mileage. Likewise, because of weight or other reasons, the LEAF's city EV efficiency is rated as quite a bit better than the Volt but the EPA highway efficiency between the two cars is much closer.

Wayne purports to use EPA numbers but I don't recognize some of them. He says the 2013 LEAF gets a combined 250 Wh per mile. The actual EPA number is 290 Wh per mile. Even the city number is "only" 260 Wh per mile.

He also apparently makes up his own "actual EPA" combined mpg HV estimates for the CMAX Energi. He says 38 mpg but the EPA number is 43 (aside from whether you believe it).

 

Just to clarify Waynes "EPA" number, it isn't. He drove the prius, prius v, and c-max in similar conditions, and attempted to place his "real world" differnces to make the c-max fit. It probably is a better figure for most clean mpg readers for comparison to the other cars.

I agree that if you are going 100 miles, it is likely quite a different trip than 32 miles in terms of adjustments from EPA to real world, and how you use hwy and city numbers. YMMV. All the phevs at current discounts seem to be good deals for these trips. Depending on your real cycle, and preferences will help make the choice. Likely if you only need seating for 4, and want luxury, the new i3 will be the most "efficinent" for these trips, we await the epas say on this. The pricing for the c-max energi seems to provide the best value, but you might choose the prius phv for better hwy mileage, or the volt for more aer range.

 

Okay, but I'm doubting he drove the LEAF around and decided the right number was 250 Wh (instead of 290) and then drove the Volt the same way and decided the EPA number of 350 Wh was exactly right.

 

Cleanmpg expects the BMW i3 to be epa-rated at 75. I would cross shop a Chevy Volt with 3 years and millions of miles on the road.

 

No I have no idea where that came from. Why don't you comment on the story, he may answer you, or correct the story if the number is wrong.

 

Not knowing the audience has been a major shortsight with consequences that are only know being discovered.

There is no correlation between intial sales and mainstream acceptance. The goal is sustained high-volume sales.

 

Sure, but don't you continually say the opposite. That initial sales have to be something like 5000/month to be mainstream. That a bad month or two mean something is doing badly. If you would stick to understanding what you just wrote here, we might have fewer problems with your posts. Y

 

More spin. Geez!

Mainstream has been clearly defined as 60,000 per year.

 

How does limiting your market help with that goal? Toyota did not do so when the gen1 Prius was released here. Why hide your product in a select market if the goal is mainstream acceptance? Word of mouth was important for Prius marketing. Early owners got approached by strangers with questions about the car. People aren't going to do that with the PPI if there isn't any available in their state.

There is no correlation, but it has to be available to the mainstream in order to be accepted.

As to my other question, what are Toyota's plans regarding a PHV and BEV products?

 

The Gen 1 Prius was initially available in only a few states...IIRC for about the first 6-10 months.

Mike