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Featured Model 3 Outsells Prius

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Aug 23, 2018.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Caution, excessive use of percentages can easily mislead. For example, sold 1 car last month and 3 cars this month would be a 300% increase in sales . . . ask the last one out please turn off the lights.

    Source: Tesla Deliveries Up 229% In California In Q2: Model 3 Outsells Prius

    In the first half of the year, Tesla registrations in California reached 21,629 (up 139.4%)
    . . .
    Tesla, in comparison with some other brands:

    • Mercedes 21,246 (+8.7% y/y)
    • BMW 18,347 (+9.4%)
    • Lexus 14,580 (-8.7%)
    • Tesla 14,099 (+229.1%)
    • Audi 10,623 (-3.0%)
    • Porsche 3,476 (1.3%)
    • Jaguar 1,305 (-44.4%)
    Obviously someone is missing, as of the end of June, YTD: Download File
    • Prius 46,171 (-17.3%)
      • Prius sedan 25,340 (-24.5%)
      • Prius PRIME 14,255 (+45.2%)
    I suspect there was a month-to-month comparison to the Prius that showed the stored, Teslas released for sale in July. That was part of the plan to defer the 200,000 threshold to maximize the Federal tax credit.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1 bwilson4web, Aug 23, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2018
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  2. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    There are always more numbers, different time frames and different ratios that can be used.
    I appreciate that the title clarifies that their "outsells Prius" in the headline is referring to 2Q not first half of the year.
    3Q should be more interesting yet, as Tesla continues to get their production issues fixed.

    That said, I would love to see hybrids grab more market share from conventional cars. Happy to see the Prime growing quickly, hope that continues.
     
  3. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    I suspect the Prime plays a big part in decreasing Prius sales.
     
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    tesla will sell as many model 3's as they can make until the waiting list ends. then, game on!
     
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  5. PriusCamper

    PriusCamper Senior Member

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    July 2018 Tesla delivery numbers, if sustained and continuing to grow, really are the first monthly numbers that establish it as a major car maker of disruptive significance. Combine this with 2nd quarter earnings reports stating they have no new funding rounds planned, combine with short-sellers in their stock having their butts kicked. combine with vague plans to go private, is it any wonder that the establishment's smear campaign against them is going full blast right now?
     
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  6. PriusCamper

    PriusCamper Senior Member

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    Hard to imagine the waiting list having a foreseeable end...
     
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  7. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Don't you mean 200% increase? ;)
     
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  8. ssdesigner

    ssdesigner Active Member

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    The waiting list isn't as much of a thing anymore. Many people posting that they are taking ownership in the 2-4 month time period stated clearly on Tesla's website.
     
  9. dipper

    dipper Senior Member

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    Uh... except for the large waiting list still waiting for the vaporware car for $35k.
     
  10. ssdesigner

    ssdesigner Active Member

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    Let them wait. It's a new model, new tech, new processes and it is in high-demand. Nobody is twisting anyone's arm to buy one, and they are selling quite well doing it the way they are doing it.
     
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  11. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Which reminds me the 1st Half California/USA data is available:

    PHEV: Ca=29622/55817 = 53% sales in Ca. (which is quite a bit higher than usual 40-45%)
    BEV: Ca=33015/63574 = 52% sales in Ca. which is slightly higher than typical 50%
     
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  12. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Or 66.7%
     
  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    agreed, i'm thinking two years.
     
  14. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    That would be 1 and 2/3rds cars sold.
     
  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    See, I told you' all percentages are tricky. <GRINS>

    Bob Wilson
     
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  16. PriusCamper

    PriusCamper Senior Member

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    Yea... I saw you said that and went and did some digging... I suspect the actual buyers of the car are more reliable sources of info than elsewhere. Did you get your info on a Tesla forum of some sort?

    The biggest problem with understanding where Tesla is really going right now is the insane amount noise. It's like a Keeping up with Kardashians media hype, combined with the hype of: entrepreneur makes war with hedge fund short sellers, fossil fuel industry and luxury car makers all at the time. There's never been more investors in those industries who benefit from smear campaigns against Elon Musk now that he shocked them with finally reaching 5000 Model 3 a week production goal. Add to all this insanity is that Tesla is spending big on their own PR campaign to fight back because from every direction they're under attack.

    Meanwhile, A guy who hired me to do some tree pruning had some family friends over with there new Model 3... They love Tesla so much that 3 family members each bought 3 model 3... Can anyone tell me when in history a very expensive Luxury car became so popular that a few people in one family would order 9 of them? I suspect by end of the year we'll be able to have perspective on all this madness.

    In the meantime, it's good to hear people buying the available versions of model 3 are no longer having to wait very long.
     
  17. Vman455

    Vman455 Senior Member

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    The problem here is in your dataset--the linked article compares sales of Prius and Model 3 *in California only* *in Q2*. Your linked TMNA file charts Prius sales nationwide YTD, and the chart embedded in the article shows YTD California registrations, both of which show the Prius ahead. Therein lies the discrepancy!
     
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  18. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Percentages for an increase or decrease can be calculated from the beginning value or the final one.

    With the 1 to 3 example, it can be 200% comparing the increase of 2 to the 1, or 66.7% comparing the 2 to the 3.

    It's another way of being misleading with percentages. A real world example is with Fair Tax advocacy. The literature claims the national sales tax just needs to be 23%, but that is by figuring the percent the second way of looking at the final price on goods with the tax added. Compared to the starting good price, it is a 30% increase.
     
  19. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    The later is not one that was ever expressed in any math class I ever had. Where do you find it documented?
     
  20. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    For the Tesla vs Prius numbers, I can use the quarterly Tesla reports and the monthly Toyota sales for March and June.

    Bob Wilson