New coal power's death rattle

They've also announced that they're closing the Portland plant in PA which has no emissions controls and has been polluting NJ.. in addition to 7 others.

 

AG- what technology options do we have on new plants?

I am aware of traditional combustion (30% efficient),
CFBB circulated fluid bed more efficient (but high solid waste?), and the IGCC gasification - the latter being my likely definition of clean coal but more costly.

How about this new one, sounds like old style with scrubber?

 

There are three coal fires stations set to close here in the Chicago area.
What plans have been made to replace the generation capacity of Fisk, Crawford and State Line? Which is at 1563mw.
Natural gas boiler generating stations takes years to get online.
Natural gas turbine generators may be the answer, as long as natural gas is relatively cheap.
I see higher electric pricing, rolling brown outs in our future. Along with a lot of good paying jobs ending.
We should see this price increase by 2014.
The sudden increase in electricity rates and impacts on state economies will be significant at a time when people and states are still struggling.

 

...still think we see many more like this. As Mark Twain said, rumors of my demise...

 

This understandable transition from Coal to Natural Gas is good.....as long as the ripple effect is not to ship all of the coal to China instead.

 

...as AG said, all the coal will be exported to China/India. We already export lots of coal for many years and that will continue and probably grow. Even if USA uses less coal for power the amount of coal mined here will probably grow. Very soon USA will begin exports of natural gas as well as coal, I think from Virginia NG exports will start in the next 6-12 months.

 

Now here is a suprise......................................................


Coal plant closures could send electricity costs soaring Results of energy auction would affect 2015 prices.


The price of electricity could spike in 2015 because of the number of coal plants closing. (May 17, 2012)
By Julie Wernau, Chicago Tribune reporter 5:52 p.m. CDT, May 17, 2012
Residential electricity prices are expected to spike by more than 10 percent beginning in 2015, with consumers paying between $150 and $330 a year more than this year, as coal plants, the least expensive producers of electricity, continue to close.
Analysts who follow electricity pricing will have a firmer idea Friday of how much consumers' bills will go up. It's the day the agency that manages the electric grid, known as the PJM Interconnection, will announce the results of an annual auction that reserves power three years in advance.
Think of the agency as a middleman that chooses the lowest-cost mix of power from bids offered by electricity producers fueled by coal, nuclear, wind, solar or natural gas, among others.
Winners walk away with lucrative "capacity payments," paid by consumers in their electricity bills as an incentive to invest in plants and keep them running. Losers face the prospect of shutting down. Auction results are scheduled to be released Friday afternoon.
Operators of coal-fueled plants, coal being inexpensive and abundant, emerged as big winners in the past. But this year promises to be different.
"Coal plants close, and capacity prices go up," said Travis Miller, director of utilities research at Chicago-based Morningstar. "The environmental regulations coming out of Washington right now, we think, will have a big impact on the prices realized on Friday and, ultimately, consumers' electricity bills."
This year's auction is to reserve power for 2015-2016, a federal deadline by which coal plant operators must comply with environmental rules or shut down. About 35 percent of electricity generation in this market is produced by burning coal, but 45 percent of those coal plants haven't installed pollution controls to meet regulations, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis.
That means the outmoded plants will either bid high, hoping for capacity payments that will be generous enough to cover the cost of environmental controls, analysts say, or these coal plant operators won't bid at all, making room for more expensive generators.
"Last year's auction saw a lot of new, clean generators stepping up to fill the gap left by the old dirties," said Becky Stanfield, senior energy advocate at the Natural Resources Defense Council. "This is exactly what should happen in a well-functioning market."
The implications of the auction can be illustrated by the expected jump between this year's prices and those expected for 2015. In June, consumers will pay power plant operators $16 per megawatt-day in capacity payments based on the results of an auction held three years ago. (A megawatt-day is about equivalent to the amount of electricity used by 330 homes in 24 hours.)
Miller predicts that number will jump to $140-$180 per MW-day in Friday's auction. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate even higher figures, $220-$300 per MW-day in 2015, or 14 times to 19 times this year's prices and roughly double the results of last year's auction. Consumers pay the capacity charges regardless of who provides their electricity.
There are unknowns, however, that could help lessen any impact on consumers. In addition to the capacity payments, bills reflect the cost of electricity itself. Low demand for electricity and low natural gas prices have recently driven down electricity prices. It's not known whether those factors will come into play in 2015.
There is an upside in coal plant closings, environmental and health advocates say. Fewer dirty coal plants will save millions of dollars each year in lower health care costs, they say.
"The real cost of dirty energy isn't reflected in your electricity bill. That doesn't account for the massive hit to the economy associated with heart disease, asthma attacks and hospital stays. The transition to cleaner energy is worth a lot in human or monetary terms; we are talking about health benefits that the EPA puts at upwards of $18 billion in Illinois alone," Stanfield said.
Midwest Generation's Fisk and Crawford coal plants in Chicago are slated to close by September, and Ameren Energy Resources has threatened to close its coal plants if it doesn't receive an extension to clean them up.
The closings of 319 coal-fueled generating units totaling 42,895 megawatts, about 13 percent of the nation's coal fleet, have been announced nationwide since January 2010, according to the Sierra Club.
Last year's auction for 2014-2015 was the first to see the impact of closing coal plants. Figuring in additional costs of scrubbers and other environmental upgrades for 2015, many coal-fired plant operators bid too high and found themselves out of a job. Capacity prices spiked to $126 per megawatt-day.
At least one power plant developer hopes the results of this year's power auction will work in its favor. Nebraska-based Tenaska Inc., which is seeking to build a natural gas-powered generating plant in central Illinois, is trying to strike a deal with the state Legislature to get its plant built.
Tenaska, which wants legislators to force electricity customers to buy the power the new plant would create, has argued that its plant would add new low-cost fuel to the market that can be bid in to the annual capacity auction.
"Adding 600 megawatts of supply to that auction could have a very dramatic effect," said Bart Ford, a Tenaska vice president.
Tenaska estimates that adding its natural gas plant to the generating mix would shave between 13 and 21 percent off capacity prices from 2014-2016 in the Commonwealth Edison territory.
Tenaska says its plant would save consumers an estimated $437.7 million over 20 years, including more than $250.6 million in the plant's first five years, by adding supply as the market tightens.
A group of businesses and environmental groups that calls itself the STOP Coalition has called Tenaska's proposed Taylorville project a "bad deal for Illinois."
"Illinois consumers would pay higher electricity rates and give a giant subsidy to a private, out-of-state company for unneeded electric power. ... We will continue to press lawmakers to reject this costly, unnecessary giveaway," the coalition said in a statement.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-0517-rate-shock-20120517,0,5649803.story

 

I find the lamenting of the losing coal plants interesting. Many years ago, acid rain was a very, very serious problem up north. The only reason that problem has improved was forced scrubber additions to coal power plants.

The pessimist sees higher rates. The optimist sees the success of useful regulation.

 

But they are also building an absolutely humongous new coal plant out Chicago way which will replace many of the smaller old plants. New plants are more expensive, and part of the issue nationwide is that old elec plants are having to be replaced, and elec rates will go up. Some move to cleaner fuels but some of that is over-blown media hype.

 

Hmm, wreck public health and the climate, or pay an extra 10% for power? Decisions, decisions...

 

There, fixed it for you.

 

New wind turbines in the right location are cost-competitive. You're blessed and cursed with good wind.

I'd pay another $0.015/kWh without hesitation for 100% renewable but it's not available. With our energy being mostly hydro and NG we're paying $0.02/kWh less than we were in 2008 and our consumption is 19% lower. It's currently about $0.135/kWh.