New Mileage Standards Announced

The only way you can get car companies to make fuel efficient cars is by government mandate. The lack of government action is why we are currently in a bad situation.

I believe it's the government's fault the American and other car companies are in bad straits right now. Mainly by lack of regulation--on mpg standards for SUVs and on oil price speculation. Sure, the UAW dealings have hurt them, but that's not the primary problem. The problem is a government that has been too conservative and beholden to big business. The last President who did anything about conservation was Jimmy Carter.

Interesting how the words "conservative" and "conservation" have opposite meanings in American politics.

 

You have been constantly moving your prediction in this thread. First it was all vehicles mid-size and larger will be hybrids. Then some mid-size vehicles would still be ICE 4 cylinders. Now mid-size vehicles will change relatively little.

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I simply think you are setting yourself up for disappointment if you believe that CAFE regulations will significantly change things. Automakers will sell the cars that customers want to buy. If people still want to buy 15 mpg SUV's and trucks, automakers will make 15 mpg SUV's and trucks. For the fleet to make a significant change buyers will have to want to buy more fuel efficient cars. The only thing that has been proven to change buyer's preference is high fuel prices.

 

I still maintain that most if not all midsized autos and crossovers will be hybrids of one kind or another except that I do allow that some of these midsized vehicles mayl be turbo boosted ICEs or clean diesels. I'm not speaking at all about small vehicles only midsizers.

Nearly all of the 4 cyl midsized autos are close to the new standard but all will need some improvement. The V6 midsized autos are far away from the new standard and will need significant improvements in fuel economy technology. V8 Luxury models are even farther away but the volumes are small.

The same situation holds for the crossovers. All 4 cyl models currently meet or exceed the new standard. The V6 models need improvement. Almost all the V6 models IMO will add some kind of hybrid, clean diesel or turbo boosting technology.

Your last statement about 15 mpg SUVs just doesn't fly for two reasons. The public has spoken already that its love affair with 15 mpg SUVs and trucks is over. The demand is shrinking year by year. Entire segments like the midsized BOF SUV is nearly gone or soon will be gone. The vehcle makers have already made the choices about what they will sell in 2016. GM and Ford announced as much last spring. They are de-emphasizing and shrinking these segments by not investing anything new in them. This is done. Thus the choices for the buying public will not include a wide variety of BOF vehicles.

 

Large body-on-frame trucks with V8 engines are still a huge market. As long as people still want them manufactures will make them. Even with $4 per gallon gasoline for most of the year, the Ford F150 was the best selling vehicle in America followed in 2nd place by GM's full size trucks.

Body on Frame SUV's are a shrinking market. They are being replaced by unibody SUV's that are the same size or bigger. A large SUV is a large SUV, why does it matter what type of frame a vehicle has? The unibody Chevy Traverse is bigger in every dimension that the body-on-frame Trailblazer it replaces. It is also selling like hotcakes and GM can't make enough of them. People still want large SUV's.

Likewise, low tech V8's with pushrods might be replaced with turbo V6's or overhead cam V6's. Why does it matter if that Camaro has a 300 HP V8 or a 300 HP V6. Manufacturers have already shown that they can take a 2.0L inline four and have it generate from 100 to 300 horsepower with injection and turbo tuning.

But again, you are moving your goalposts. You started out by claiming every mid-size vehicle would be a hybrid of some kind. Now they will be hybrids, diesels, or turbocharged. Last I checked diesels and turbocharged engines are ICE. Of course the Prius is also a purely ICE vehicle. The hybrid system is just another way of making an ICE more efficient.

Manufactures will choose the least expensive way to meed CAFE requirements while selling vehicles their customers want. If it turns out that the vehicles customers want don't meet CAFE standards, manufacturers will still make them and sell them. Consumer demand for fuel efficient vehicles is set by the price of fuel not CAFE regulations.


On a related topic, JPMorgan recently put out a report stating that 20% of vehicles sold in the US will be hybrids by 2020 and 13% worldwide. I personally think that is a bit high but time with tell.

Study: 20% of all vehicles sold in U.S. to be hybrids by 2020 [w/POLL]