Nissan Leaf vs Prius

..and the amount of platinum used for the cat, is far, far less than the amount of Lithium required for the leaf's Lithium-based battery.

But thank you for helping to make my point, which is, as demand for any scarce element goes through the roof, so too will the price. Lithium prices are what they are (right now) because the required quantity is relatively small. But when there are 100,000's of new (big) car batteries requiring a lot of Lithium, the prices will go up...just like platinum, which is used in every vehicle.

 

Stay awake, Jimbo.

 

LOL.

Sure things will change. But they are not going to radically change for quite some time. It will be an evolution, not a revolution.

In the meantime, we are talking about the here and now. Hey, who knows, maybe aliens will come to eartch and show us a better way how to generate power without any polution.

would have, could have, should have. Try talking about now, and right now, most of us get our power from sources that still pollute.

 

Gee, have you been paying attention? Apparently NOT. The main point of the article you linked to was the looming over-capacity and future manufacturing consolidation within the battery industry. It makes perfect sense that there will be consolidation in manufacturing, as only the big boys will have the capital and leverage to buy up the dwindling Li reserves.

The issue is not with production capacity, but with the scarcity of Lithium...which will drive prices up, not manufacturing.

If you choose not to believe there (likely) will be no scarcity of Li should millions of new EV's come online, then that's fine, but we are done...because you clearly don't live on this planet, and have no touch with reality.

 

Yes, but eventually is better than NOT EVER.

EV purchasers are helping, as electrical power production does get cleaner over time, they will be contributing less polution. Everyone else driving gasoline powered vehicles has no hope of generating less polution, that is the point. The here and now leads into the future, and if the here and now can lead to a future cleaner world, I am all in favor of it. Get the stick out of your nice person. Many EV owners also have PV panels in their homes, and do generate a signifigant percentage of their own power from green sources.

 

But you aren't talking about the here and now either.
You are talking about some time in the future when there are 'millions of EVs plugging into the grid'
That isn't happening now is it?

Moving the goalposts once again?

 

Oh, I agree. But I'm only talking near-term (ie, next 5 years, or so).

The problem with this argument is that as more EV's come online, eventually, more power plants (which are still pulluting) will have to be built. Now, if these plants are non-polluting, such as solar, wind, or hydro...then I completely buy the pollution-free benefits of EV. But that's a long way off, IMO.

Right now, if my numbers are correct - I, in my G3 Prius, produce essentially the same amount (quantity) of pollutants as the EV owner, who has to charge up his car every night from our coal-fired power plant. The numbers don't lie, and I've looked at them.

 

No, not moving the goal post. you simply try to read between my lines, and make incorrect assumptions.

Two issues being discussed -

(1) Pollution - that's a "here and now" calculation. Right now, and for me, i see no advantage of EV in terms of my overall/combined pollution footprint, when compared to my G3.

(2) Future price for Li batteries - Who knows for sure? But I strongly suspect that scarcity of Li (NOT manufacturing) will ultimately set the price of batteries required to drive EV's. Won't be an issue right now, but as many more EV's help to drive up that demand, and Li becomes more scarce, when you go to replace your battery in 5 years (or so), you most likely (IMO) will pay more for that battery, than you would right now.


As I already said (several times) the ONLY advanatage I see for EV's, versus my G3, is about a factor of 1.5-2.0X reduction in my annual commute cost. I have a LONG commute, so that equates to real money - maybe close to $1K difference. Although if i had a short commute, then quite frankly, the energy savings might be closer to being in the noise. But everything else, including range, highway speed, convenience, known dependability and driving assurance - all point in favor of the G3.

 

How about Prius, Leaf, Tesla, Volt , etc vs the nonelectric/hybrid world! I wish success to all of these vehicles!

 

Nissan says even at its dirtiest, the electric grid produces less pollution than gasoline. They didn't give any specifics and I don't know that the latter considers our hybrids.

As for the cost of lithium, the article in Wikipedia would seem to indicate that lithium ion batteries don't use that much lithium with only 27400 metric tonnes produced in 2008 for as many lithium ion batteries are in use. What will be the cost factor in 5-10 years (according to Nissan) when you need a new battery? Hard to say. But who knows what advances in batteries will come now that we're starting to worry about improving them? I see that a Prius minivan is coming next year that will have lithium-ion batteries, so apparently Nissan isn't the only company that believes in them.

I like road trips. I'm not giving up my Prius, but I just might add a LEAF, since as most people, I make a lot of trips of less than 20 miles round trip.

 

Alright experts, how much lithium does go into the leaf battery pack? I really don't know but that would help decide how much price increases in lithium would affect the price of battery packs.


I can't help but agree with bigdog that the price of the raw material lithium will be higher 10 years from now. That is not really a question is it. Consumer electronics and the auto sector willl be using more then than today. This will require more expensive methods of getting the Lithium. Reserves are between 2-100 million metric tons, and those lower numbers don't make much sense to me. If ev and extended range ev cars take off in the millions of units per year, there will be a huge increase in demand for lithium.

The other side of the coin is battery technology pushes foward. The cost of Lion and Li polymer batteries for consumer electronics are much lower than for cars. Part of this is uncertainty with warrneties as if your macbook battery dies after 4 years its not a big deal, but if your car battery dies its much more expensive. I would expect the battery chemistry and manufacturing costs to drop more than the cost of Lithium goes up, but to really know the answer you need an accurate forecast of ev car sales, and the amount of Li per vehicle.

On polution, the non carbon dioxide polutants can be scrubbed better at a power plant than in a car. The prius is very low on these pollutants also. In the future carbon sequestration technology can store the CO2 in the ground much easier from a power plant than a car. Also power plants can more efficiently use north american resources of coal and oil shale instead of being dependant on mid-east oil.

 

Incomplete, at best, and perhaps, self-serving quackery.

Their prediction of reduced prices is all predicated on the notion of "over-capacity". Economics 101. However, they never addressed the critically important issue of resource scarsity....and quite frankly, they didn't mention this because they already know that scarcity will be a major driver. Unfortunately for these types of predictions and forecasts - one can not accurately predict finding new sources of Lithium in any significant quantity to help reduce or stabalize battery prices. What they can predict, however, and what they have predicted is - Increasing demand for EV's will drive additional commercial and federal investments in batteries and manufacturing processes. But that does NOT necessarily translate into finding new reserves...which will be critical to price reductions. End of story.

 

Oh com'on robbie, I expect better than that. Do your own research. The numbers are out there. Go up quite a few posts, I've given links to the numbers.

Bottom line is - Of course Nissan is gonna say that. It's like the Ford folks claiming the Ford Fusion Hybrid is the most fuel efficient sedan in the country. Technically, they are correct, because the prius is not a sedan. But most consumers will not appreciate the subtlty..and will bite on pretty much anything. It's called marketing, and they will twist (or omit) the words so that it sounds like what you wnat to hear.

Work the numbers yourself. I have, and I know for FACT, that in my situation (where I live), there is NO pollution advantage of the Leaf over the prius.

...and that's fine. Just be aware that (chances are) you really arn't polluting any less than you are in your G3 Prius...despite what the marketing guys from Nissan would have you believe.

 

http://mydocs.epri.com/docs/CorporateDocuments/SectorPages/Portfolio/PDM/PHEV-ExecSum-vol1.pdf

While it is true that Colorado is a high coal burning state, renewables are supposed to provide 30% of our electricity by 2020, and natural gas is supposed to be used to replace any existing coal fired plants.


{QUOTE]...and that's fine. Just be aware that (chances are) you really arn't polluting any less than you are in your G3 Prius...despite what the marketing guys from Nissan would have you believe.[/QUOTE]

Since I'd do well over half my traveling in the LEAF, I would be reducing my share of imported oil and reducing my dependence upon the oil market. Not to mention supporting what my father always said was a much more efficient technology.

 

Having a new source or mine of lithium ore does not mean the price will drop. As this material is in demand, the new mine investors will sell the ore at the market price to make money. Just like when a new oil reserve is discovered, it won't make a dent in the oil price.
All this predictions are meant to feed the public who want them.

 

Side bar: I wouldn't be replacing the Prius, it would be my 01 Chevy Blazer. That changes the equation for coal-generated electricity vs. 14mpg SUV.