Featured Not alone in feeling that Toyota is missing the EV-boat (article)

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by R-P, Sep 14, 2021.

  1. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Very recent, but that was Friday. Prices look same as that change today. Demand continues to grow; some trims with delivery estimated almost a year out now. They continue to sell every model they make and current factories running at max capacity despite supply chain issues. Very healthy margins which continue to grow.
     
  2. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Multiple solutions/choices for our variety of transport & power needs is inevitable. Heck, even within BEV we can already see that happening with battery chemistries. For those paying close attention, the impression that Toyota will rollout bZ4X using LFP and a model of Lexus using NCA should have tickled some inquisitiveness. There are subtle clues about what is to come.

    I'm expecting detail to be revealed at the LA Auto Show a month from now. That's an excellent venue to stir an audience very receptive to market growth... and Toyota is definitely an automaker to plunge into new territory. Their vision is beyond early-adopters and those actually wanting change. Appealing to those not interested takes a very different approach to what we have seen so far.

    Put another way, I recognize that choice to disregard enthusiasts & rhetoric, to instead focus on essentials. It is a familiar history for those who have been involved with this over the past 2 decades.
     
  3. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    And the least safe way.
     
  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Unlike the GAS (Guess Amount Signal) gauge, every PHEV and BEV have very accurate EV range indication especially at low SOC values: 2014 BMW i3-REx; 2017 Prius Prime, and; 2019 Std Rng Plus Model 3.

    I typically go cross country on the Interstates. In our region, there is a 24 hour truck stop every 30-40 miles, easy battery range.

    My Prime and BMW practice was to run out the gas making sure the battery was charged as much as possible. When the engine stopped, I used the battery to reach the next gas station.

    Driving a BEV is an applied IQ test. You need to learn and apply these new skills. The advantage is lower costs per mile: $2,75/100 mi ($0.11/kWh) and $3.50/100 mi SuperCharger.

    Around town, I get about 1/3d of my EV miles at free chargers like Whole Foods and other smart merchants. On trips, staying at a motel with free charging and breakfast reduces the cost to $3.00/100 mi. Anyone getting 'free gas' today?

    Bob Wilson
     
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  5. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    So what?

    I typically travel in places where there's no charging except every 150 miles or soso or none at all, and frequent road closures.

    You and I seem to have lived very different travel lives. I've never had a flat tire on a well-maintained set. You have them all the time. I've repeatedly been turned around and told to go back on a closed highway. Apparently, that's never happened to you. I have had several trips that couldn't tolerate charging stops because of the time delay, including one all-night 18 hour drive straight through to just barely make it in time and one 10 hour drive I didn't know I was going on until 5 minutes before I left. You don't seem to care about stopping for tens of minutes every couple of hours and twiddling your thumbs.
     
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    With an accurate BMS indicated range and navigation miles to destination, any EV driver can confidently arrive with at their next charger and/or gas station if driving a PHEV and an empty gas tank.
    Just luck of the draw. I'm glad to handle every hiccup and sharing how to deal with them. The worst was finding the Voyager van spare was flat after picking up a screw from a construction zone. We managed to get to an all night 7-11 and after evaluating the two tires, inflated the spare with a can of 'fix a flat' and back on the road. Sh*ft happens and you deal with it.

    Those subject to fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) should use what makes them feel comfortable. In the meanwhile, the advantages of new technology work for those willing the learn new skills and disciplines. For example, cost per mile:
    Design Your Model 3 | Tesla

    Electric vehicles are less expensive to fuel than gasoline powered vehicles. The average person drives between 10,000 and 15,000 miles and spends between $1,000 and $1,500 on gasoline per year. In comparison, the cost of electricity to power Model 3 over the same distance is up to four times lower. Over the six year average length of car ownership, that's between $4,300 and $6,400 in gasoline savings.

    We've assumed a fuel economy of 28 miles per gallon for a comparable gasoline powered sedan. We've also assumed the national average of $0.13 per kilowatt-hour for electricity, 10% charging on Tesla’s Supercharger network and $2.85 per gallon for premium gasoline over the next six years.

    Our Prius at 52-56 MPG were twice as efficient as a 28 MPG gas sedan. Our 2019 Std Rng Plus Model 3 is more than twice as efficient, ~133 MPGe, as our former 56 MPG Prius. In effect, our Model 3 is four-five times more efficient than the 28 MPG gas sedan before counting the free EV miles.

    Anyone getting free gas? Free EV charging is common.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #186 bwilson4web, Oct 25, 2021
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2021
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  7. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    Which is useless if the road is closed, the charger is closed, the power is out, etc.

    And if you're driving across the Utah desert with no services for over 100 miles? Of, if as happened to me a couple of years ago, I was told by a highway trooper to turn around and drive 200 miles back from where I came with no chargers at all along the route?

    Oh please. This isn't "FUD", it's actual real-world happenings (past happenings - things that have actually happened to me), that aren't that uncommon.
     
  8. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Stop feeding the troll. It just makes it easier for people to believe the wacko scenarios. 97% of people don't understand statistics or 97% of statistics are made up on the spot.
    National Survey Reveals Large Majority of Americans Know How to Change a Tire
    Just because someone hasn't had a flat, they should not assume no one else has, and somehow block out of their memory any flat tire incidents. When my gen 3 Prius was new, I had to drive down to a client site, that had road hazards on it. I got 2 flat tires on that road meaning I had it towed instead of being able to put on a spare. Likely scenario? No it didn't get me to travel with 2 spare tires. Once having had a fan belt brake, I did change belts early when they were showing wear, not a problem in a BEV. During snopacalypse charging stations were open in easily drivable parts of the city, but gas stations didn't have gas, or if they did some people waited 2 hours to get it. The gas stations that had power ran out, those that didn't couldn't pump.

    Many people are better off with plain old ice vehicles or phevs. They know who they are. But by 2030 the time toyota gets its battery plants built they will be a small minority ;-) Still I expect many to still want ice cars at that time, but charging infrastructure will not be a problem then.

    Yes tesla can not make enough of the base model 3 and Y and have raised the price. That is in spite of now being able to produce over 1 million cars, but demand needs the 2 new factories to open. The bZ4X can't come soon enough to satisfy all the demand. Unfortunately toyota will not have enough batteries to sell in high volume in 2023. Here is hoping 2024 is a great year for it.
     
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  9. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    And yet, I've changed tires for clueless drivers on numerous occasions. Every one that was flat was because of lack of proper maintenance.
     
  10. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    thank you captain anecdotal
    .
     
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  11. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    "Cooper Tires survey shows 81% of Americans have had a flat tire and 74% say they know how to change a flat tire"

    I'd bet over half of that 74% couldn't do it if it happened.

    Reasons someone who "knows how to change a flat tire" couldn't do it if it happened:

    1. They've never done it before.
    2. They don't know where the jack, jack handle, and/or lug wrench are in their car.
    3. They don't know where to put the jack on the car or how to operate it if they do.
    4. They don’t know how to get to the spare in their car.
    5. They've let their spare go flat.
    6. They didn't park on a safe, level area suitable for changing the tire (this can result in death).
    7. Some grease-monkey has over-torqued their lug nuts with an air-wrench and they lack the physical strength to break them loose with the teeny lug wrenches that come in cars.
    8. They jack the tire off the ground before breaking the bolts loose.
    9. They lack the physical strength to handle the weight of the tires.
    10.They don’t know how to tighten the lug nuts if they do get the spare on the car.
     
  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Driving the 2014 BMW i3-REx, the planned truck stop was closed. So I poured the spare gas can into the tank and arrived at a second truck stop about 20 miles down the road. We had over 40 mi EV range in battery.
    “Thank you. I’ll take a nap waiting for the tow truck.”
    Luck of the draw.

    Bob Wilson
     
  13. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    I've run DC to Houston without a real pause except for pee brakes and gas in a mini-van (Grand Caravan ... what is mini about one of those. I later figured out I put 110k miles on it going to and from colleges.) So I'm no stranger to long trips.

    But few people are going to make trips like that.

    My daily norm is 5 miles to and 5 miles from. My twice a week exception is 50 miles to and 50 miles from. My once a year is a 250 mile run. I'd wager that those are more average uses of a second car/SUV than your exceptions.

    Would I buy a 200 mile range car? No. I have 100F and 5F to deal with. And unexpected trip extensions that are time critical.

    And if we need to go super long distances. My wife's hybrid sedan would do 600 miles before we need to stop. My Rav4 would do 500+. My bladder less.

    Gas is $3.199. Making a choice is a balancing act.

    Everyone has to make the choice for themselves. Yours isn't right for me and mine for you. Unless it is.
     
  14. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    So what?

    Again, so what?

    I'd buy a 90 mile range car, if I had another car for trips out-of-town, and if it were cheap enough.

    And it's those extremes that require (for me, and for most people) a car that can handle that once-in-a-while called out of town on an emergency, road is closed, limited time, poor weather, whatever....trip.

    Exactly. But what if you didn't have that other car?

    For my Prius Prime, gas is so cheap compared to everything else, that it costs less to run (by about half) than a Model 3 would. Tires are half, the original cost was less than half, insurance is less, and it doesn't require me to own a second car.
     
  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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  16. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    Interesting conformation from experts regarding this comment:

    https://www.yahoo.com/autos/battery-experts-explanations-chevy-bolt-174400370.html

    “This isn’t a black-and-white problem like a cell has defects or not,” said Louis Hruska, a technical consultant who worked at Duracell for 12 years, where he held leadership roles in advanced battery manufacturing. He served as Duracell’s director of engineering for rechargeable batteries for four years.

    Hruska believes that eradicating tears and folds is a worthwhile goal but that imperfections and variations—sometimes measuring fractions of a millimeter—are relatively common. “The design of the battery system also must be resilient enough to accommodate some imperfections without catastrophic failure,” he said.


    The most urgent purpose of an EV’s battery management system is to prevent overheating in one cell from spreading to the rest of the pack. The first safety measure is to produce near-flawless cells, and the second level of protection is to detect problematic cells and modules—and isolate them. “It’s two layers of safety engineering,” said analyst Sam Jaffe, vice president of Battery Storage Solutions at E Source, a research and consulting firm. “You don’t want a defective cell, but sometimes you still get them.”
     
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