Featured Not alone in feeling that Toyota is missing the EV-boat (article)

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by R-P, Sep 14, 2021.

  1. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    They aren't.

    I created exactly nothing. Everything is referenced to a source of measured data or statistical data.
     
  2. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    My own analysis indicated that the EV 72 mi range of the 2014 BMW i3-REx was getting the EV trips instead of the 2017 Prius Prime. Worse, the Prime too often turned on the ICE to burn gasoline below 55 F. The BMW i3-REx did (does) not.

    I traded in the Prime for a 2019 Model 3 and saved sales taxes on the $18,300 Tesla gave me. With over 53,000 mi, the Model 3 has saved a lot over the Prime and we still have the BMW.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  3. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    My Prime gets all my trips.

    Mine starts inexplicably about once a year or so, and runs for a minute or so. The last time it ran was on our trip from Denver to Hutchinson, Kansas, which we did without stopping to refuel. One fill up was done after the 468 mile trip from home to destination, and that one fill-up got us back home when we were done. The fill-up took 4 minutes.
     
  4. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    The assumptions behind your number are bad. You can read up and inform yourself, or continue to use poor estimates. The bulk of energy is indeed in the manufacture of the cells and packs. I did not say tesla uses a lot less energy than other manufacturers, but poor assumptions behind your numbers are based on much smaller factories that are less efficient, then you don't use the proper grid. Basing it all on battery weight and not imputs makes it hard to justify any calculations. Some heavier chemistries like LFP are less carbon intense. Also the number is likely lower as batteries will have a second life past the 150,000 miles or be recycled.

    I simply said this is high compared to the average prime. Use it if you would like, but how in the world given the epa has the tesla model 3 long range being more efficient on electricity than the prius prime did you find that the toyota used less electricity per mile. I'm sure if you are getting 5 miles/kwh you may even do better in a model 3. I assume you are using the current one since you used that battery size, and it is more efficient than my older model. Using these poor assumptions to tell someone else their tesla is produces twice as much ghg as your prime, well it makes no sense.

    As I said, the difference is not great and YMMV, but please don't keep defending poor assumptions and then telling everyone that they should use them.
     
  5. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    It's not my number, it's a published number.

    That's only true if you accept irrationally low numbers for mineral extraction, processing and transportation.

    I used the grid in the Western US, as published by EIA.

    And I didn't do it for LFP.

    Recycling energy is likely to make things worse, not better, until we have way better recycling technology than we have now.

    Because I use electricity in-town and gas on the open highway at high speed. That makes the average electric usage more efficient since the average speed is lower but it also makes gas usage higher because it's primarily used at high speed.

    Can't do that trick with an EV.

    I didn't make poor assumptions and the difference was a factor of two. Making the most optimistic assumptions for an EV just makes the gap smaller. It doesn't eliminate it. The ratio drops from 1.95 to 1.55 with the most optimistic assumptions for the EV and to 1.08 with the most pessimistic assumptions for the Prime. I can't get it below 1.0 without using entirely irrational numbers.
     
    #65 Lee Jay, Oct 7, 2021
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2021
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    And here are EPA published numbers:
    upload_2021-10-7_21-33-51.png

    Bob Wilson
     
  7. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    The EPA numbers don't include manufacturing or electricity production.

    Try to follow along.
     
  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Owning a 2019 Tesla Std Rng Plus Model 3, $24 k, which was bought by trading in a 2017 Prius Prime, $29 k, I subsequently only had to pay my operational costs after purchase. As the EPA points out:
    upload_2021-10-8_0-42-42.png
    • Saving ~$200/year with the Tesla
    • Saving ~$1,000/5 years with the Tesla
    The short 25 mi EV range of the Prime meant it was not being used since the 72 mi EV range of our 2014 BMW i3-REx was more useful. In contrast, the Prime was a "3 stop" car whereas the BMW was (is) a "10 stop" car and my wife loves her BMW. Just the Prime was depreciating without providing useful service,

    So this is the current price for a used, 2019 Std Rng Plus Model 3:
    upload_2021-10-8_0-54-57.png
    Dang! The Tesla did not depreciate but increased in value. The list price of our Model 3 was $41,000 before the trade-in. I had to pay for AutoPilot back then but now it is standard on all Teslas. Compared to Toyota TSSP, AutoPilot is head and shoulders better.

    How would the 2017 Prius Prime do from Kelly Blue Book?
    upload_2021-10-8_1-2-57.png
    So my original $29 k Prius Prime would be ~$21,822 per Kelly. Tesla made out like a bandit giving me only $18,300 but it didn't matter as the Prime had no service value.

    All in all, I'm quite happy with our Std Rng Plus Model 3. As I post, it has 53,875 miles.

    Bob Wilson

    ps. Notice I don't care about what happened before I bought the car. If not listed on the Monroney sticker, I don't care.
     
    #68 bwilson4web, Oct 8, 2021
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2021
  9. Richard2005

    Richard2005 Member

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    Great to see you enjoying your new EV ... however whether you have green power or not (or solar panels for that matter), the incremental CO2 cost when you charge you EV is based on the CO2 intensity of the electricity grid in your area. Certainly if you purchase solar panels then you are absolutely making a difference as those panels will produce (whether you use the power or not) and in this way you can offset your emissions but the incremental CO2 from charging your car does not change. So the CO2 impact of your car would still be as per the EPA website for state or area.
     
  10. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    This depends.
    If the CO2 footprint is important to a person, and their schedule is flexible enough, they can charge off their own power production.
    In my example, I charge mainly on sunny afternoons. This is when the pv panels are producing thus I am basically charging directly from the panels and draw no energy from the grid.

    Alternatively, even charging when the pv panels are not producing, some, or all, of that energy comes from my stored solar energy. Again, this avoids the grid.
     
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  11. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    This is correct, and most people (as shown above) don't understand this. This is because the way the grid works is pretty mysterious to most people.
     
  12. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    Mine is. 99% of my in-town days are days when the engine never runs. And I've gone on many trips out of town where you could not have followed me in your Tesla without ending up stranded on the side of the road or parked charging on L1 via an extension cord run out of the hotel room for several days. Things are getting better in charge infrastructure land, but they're still problematical in several parts of the country. Interestingly, CCS locations have now or will soon surpass superchargers in some of those places - places where I go.
     
  13. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Published by whom. Why did you select it when it appears so far off from the real world. Did you not read the article I presented on a recent study. What assumptions did you use?



    This is what I would call the false equivalency argument. You post bad figures. Then you say you got them from somewhere good. You ignore study presented and never show your work. I guess maybe the hummer really is greener than the prius. The numbers were published. You say I use bad numbers for extracting and you say that these batteries will some how end up in a landfill so those minerals are lost. Can you give me those extraction figures please? Are they for the NCA in the tesla or some other higher energy need battery.

    You just keep claiming everything is awful. Stop it. Stop giving people bad figures and making up so many things. You seem like those anti vaxers. What if things are awful, well we better assume they are because we would not want to read real studies and look at real numbers.
     
    #73 austingreen, Oct 8, 2021
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2021
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  14. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    Manufacturing energy analysis of lithium ion battery pack for electric vehicles - ScienceDirect

    As I said, estimates vary widely, but even with the lowest estimate: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/9/2396/pdf
    The EV comes out behind, not ahead, of my Prius Prime.

    That article didn't have a number, and was irrelevant because it compared and EV to an average ICE car.

    You haven't shown that they are bad, you've only stated it without support.

    You even thanked me for showing my work.

    [quote[You just keep claiming everything is awful.[/quote]

    Batteries are awful. Always have been. And my first EV was an electric model airplane, running on Ni-Cd batters, driving a ferrite magnet DC motor, in 1986. I've used about every type of battery since. Lead acid, gel-cell, Ni-Cd, NiMH, Lithium-Ion cylindrical, Lithium-Polymer, LIFE (LFP).

    I didn't make up anything. I used published figures from several sources, and measured data. Unless you can actually demonstrate that my figures are "bad" (and your news article does not do that, at all), then you are just noise.

    I'm a professional research scientist, in this field, I'm fully vaccinated, I fight on-line against flat-earthers, anti-vaxxers, and creationists. I did my own analysis of this so I would know what went into it, I documented my sources, and even told you what some of them were (now all of them with this post).
     
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  15. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    So to sum up…
    One person states their experience with a Tesla and Prime, comparing the efficiency of both.

    You state their calculations are “probably” wrong. And indicate that according to your own analysis, your Prime is cleaner than a Model 3.

    After many requests, you finally give a reference for where you got your numbers from.

    And that source is an estimate of the LEAF and Volt battery packs??? This is how you got the information about the Tesla battery pack?

    I begin to doubt the value of your stated credentials.

    edit: Upon further reading, it also appears the study is 5-10 years out of date. Battery tech has advanced quite a bit since then.
     
    #75 Zythryn, Oct 8, 2021
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2021
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  16. Richard2005

    Richard2005 Member

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    If you choose not to charge your car for a day, then your solar power is used by someone else. So then if you do charge your car, that other persons electricity will be met by the grid at the CO2 intensity of the grid. So having solar panels makes no difference to the incremental CO2 of charging your car.

    Another example, if I charge my EV, does it make any difference to global emissions if the set of panels is installed on my roof instead of my neighbours roof ?

    The reality is that whether you have panels or not, or whether you use green power or not, the incremental CO2 of your action to charge your car, is driven by the CO2 intensity of the electricity grid in your area. Now clearly that intensity changes during the year and also during a 24 hour cycle but generally an average annual value is used (ie EPA). However if you want to get more granular, the CO2 intensity will be higher at night and on cloudy days, than it will when the sun is shining etc.
     
    #76 Richard2005, Oct 8, 2021
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2021
  17. Richard2005

    Richard2005 Member

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    I had a read of this article which was based on study by the Technical University of Eindhoven on behalf of the Green Party in the German Bundestagdoen. However I can't find any details of this study being published, which may indicate the work has not been published and so has not even had a basic level of peer review.

    Now that is not to say its not without some merit ... and it does seek to compare EV's to various types of ICE vehicle (ie Prius) but then you read statements like;

    "The researchers have also chosen a value that is advantageous for electric cars in terms of the power mix and the associated CO2 emissions: 250 grams of CO2 equivalent per kilowatt-hour ... electric cars are often charged with green electricity (usually as a prerequisite for funding for charging points), which is why the value can in practice be well below the CO2 emissions of the electricity mix."

    So rather than using 400 g/kWh they chose to use 250 g/kWh, justifying it on 'green power'. Now if they are making those sorts of assumptions, then really you have to question the validity of the rest of this 'unpublished' study especially at it was produced for a political party.
     
  18. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    Before I got my Model 3 I drove a PIP for 6 years which I still have.

    PIP: 5.5 miles / kwh (9 years old; 63% EV; more difficult/faster miles with gas)
    M3: 4.7 miles / kwh (all miles for 3+ years, admittedly not that many in the last 18 months)

    Mike
     
  19. Richard2005

    Richard2005 Member

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    When Engineering Explained compared the RAV4 Prime to the Model Y using average US grid CO2 intensity, the Model Y had somewhat better lifetime CO2 assuming average annual miles. However Jason did make the point that for low millage the RAV4 Prime would be less because the smaller battery had a lower CO2 impact.

    How Does Toyota RAV4 Prime Compare To A Tesla Model Y In Emissions?

    Overall Jason does a very good job of comparing the emissions of these two cars.
     
  20. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Your points are valid on a societal level.
    The context of my statement was an individual’s vehicle. When people are talking about an individual’s CO2 footprint, some people complain that when purchasing green power, you aren’t getting the electrons produced by solar/wind.

    My response is that, if an individual wants to, the can charge directly from solar (or wind).
    I bought solar expressly to cover the charging of our cars, so yes, having solar does make a difference to the incremental CO2 of charging my car.
     
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