Featured Not alone in feeling that Toyota is missing the EV-boat (article)

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by R-P, Sep 14, 2021.

  1. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    That's a problem of statistics and technology, not one of bias. EIA has zero motivation to be against solar or anything else. Their models aren't great because they are bean-counters making financial-style models, not technology models. If you apply the wrong type of model to and use it to do the hardest thing - predict the future - you're bound to get rotten results, and they almost always do. So I ignore their predictions but their data collection is pretty good (it's much easier to report on things that have already happened than to predict the future) so I use their data.
     
  2. William Redoubt

    William Redoubt Senior Member

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    Battery EVs (like Tesla) with these circular lithium/ion cells will be looked at as stop-gap technology in just a few years. Fuel cell cars, solid-state battery cars and hybrids are the future. Don't listen to Musk -- he's a pathological liar and narcissist. Toyota knows what they are doing, are far ahead of the game. They just don't broadcast their intentions and plans. And if everything I have learned from Hollywood is true, Doc Brown's Mr. Fusion may become commonplace. ITM.
     
  3. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Cylinderical cells were used because they were readily available. Sticking with them because you already have the equipment to make them is a money move Toyota would embrace. Tesla is already moving to other formats and chemistries in some applications.

    Fuel cell cars might happen in the future. I just don't see successful ones being fueled by hydrogen. Packaging the tanks on a car is worse than batteries. Before that, there is the cost of the infrastructure. Then if we do get cheap green hydrogen, there is a lot of fossil hydrogen uses that it needs to displace.

    Solid-state batteries are still in development at this point. Then when they do get to market, they will be expensive. Simply because new production equipment will need to be designed and built.

    Plug in hybrids with long EV ranges will address BEVs issues with long trips. They could even make renewable fuels feasible for general use.

    Toyota could have something in the works, but their current lobbying says they aren't ready, and that they want to keep profiting from inefficient ICE cars.
     
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  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Who you going to believe, this post or your lying eyes:
    upload_2021-10-16_10-8-36.png

    upload_2021-10-16_10-11-18.png

    upload_2021-10-16_10-15-41.png

    Bob Wilson
     
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    • cylindrical cells - cheapest per kWh, mechanically they become a strong, light weight, honeycomb structure. So Tesla is making the middle structure, the bottom of the car, into a structural element and mounts the seats directly to it. So raising the battery and seats into the car makes assembly faster and less expensive. Best of all, multiple vendors making identical dimensional parts that anyone can use keeps them affordable versus one-of-kind other formats.
    • fuel cell - the energy content of hydrogen is lower than the source meaning it is inefficient to manufacture. So far, no fuel cell vendor is in parallel building a hydrogen fueling network.
    • solid-state batteries - a lot of noise but no products. For example, where are the solid-state batteries in cell phones and laptops?
    • hybrids - can be a stop-gap while +$3/gal gas is available but limited EV range means some are not even urban EVs. For example, the 25 mi EV range Prius Prime was our trade-in car for a 240 mi Std Rng Plus Model 3 by Tesla.
    I'm interested in what you do like ... so I can short them.

    Bob Wilson
     
  6. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Sand Pounder

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    Maybe we've just gotta kick the car habit?
     
  7. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    My son built an e-bike. 55 miles per kWh.
     
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  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    What? What? And give up on flogging each other with wet noodle postings?

    What fun would that be?

    Bob Wilson
     
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  9. vvillovv

    vvillovv Senior Member

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    I couldn't think of a better Title for a Forum

    Without the convenience factor of Land Barges for moving a driver between point A and point B, I wonder what the rate of arctic ice sheet melt we'd see in 2021 ->

    On the other hand, some assembly line might move up in emissions and eclipse the personal mode of transportation, if one hasn't already.

    edit: what else could be added to the list of genius convenience inventions of all times.
    ..... second cup of caffeine please!
     
    #149 vvillovv, Oct 16, 2021
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2021
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  10. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Again Toyota is now investing after years of delay. Apologies that it is probably behind a paywall but solid state has potential but problems.

    Volkswagen, Ford, Other Big Auto Makers Push to Make Solid-State Batteries the Next Big Thing for EVs - WSJ

    Cell format - There are 3 common battery formats that end up in plug-in and hybrid cars - prismatic, cylindrical, and pouch. Each have advantages and disadvantages. Tesla first used cylindrical because they were the least expensive when developing the roadster. Today tesla's packs are still the least expensive/kwh and lightest/kwh. Toyota used prismatic for packaging on the original Prius. Toyota says they will likely change away from prismatic in the future. cylindrical may have manufacturing problems in solid state, pouch may be the go to format if that becomes superior technology.
     
    #150 austingreen, Oct 16, 2021
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2021
  11. dbg1066

    dbg1066 Junior Member

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    Wow, I think I unintentionally kicked this thread into a new direction, but fine discussion folks. I always appreciate LeeJay's technical no-nonsensism and BWilson's positive on-targetism.


    Perhaps ironically? during all the great discussion in this thread last week I was taking my Tesla Model Y to a 4-day trip in Big Bend National Park, a great park in the Middle of Freaking Nowhere some 500 miles from Austin where I reside. My point was to show anyone watching that you can take long EV-only trips NOW in a Tesla, even if you go off the (Interstate) beaten path. A massive supercharging infrastructure plus 300+ miles ranges on the new cars means you don't have to have a PHEV, you can make the leap to EV. Yes, you DO have to think about transportation differently; I did have to think about how to get charged away from home and far from the Supercharger network, to send an email or two and make a phone call or two to be sure - but it was quite feasible. (Was also quite fun - if you haven't driven a Tesla, you are denying yourself a great driving experience).
    And to be fair, I have hit range anxiety visiting Big Bend in my Prius - there is lots of open space out there, and many miles between gas stations, so don't tally all 100% of that "need to plan ahead" against the EV.
    Are we willing to do a tiny amount of work and (Heaven forfend) think differently to kick the incredibly inefficient ICE to the curb? My Model Y needs roughly 2.2 gallons of gasoline worth of energy to get the 325 EPA-mile range: electric is WAY more efficient already and of course gets cleaner every year.
    Yes, PHEV is a safe choice, and one I definitely considered, but EV was feasible for me and I jumped; for me, Toyota missed the boat. If Toyota jumps back in, in 5-6 years, I will consider their EV offering but for now Tesla is making waves and dragging the ICE manufacturers unwillingly forward, and they get my support.
     
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  12. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    In some places, that works. In others, it doesn't, unless you do extreme measures (like running an extension cord outside the hotel window for 3 days or sleeping at an RV-park). I've given examples of trips I've taken that you couldn't do in a Tesla, or any other EV without those extreme measures - trips that I actually took in my Prius Prime.

    Charging infrastructure is improving and one of those trips is now possible in an EV. Some of the others are not. And that all depends on things not going wrong. I've given these examples before, but I've gotten stuck behind a barrier on a closed highway, for accidents, weather, a rock slide and even a forest fire, and had to turn around. The last time (the forest fire one), the trip ended up being a little over 600 miles between fast chargers. Planning is all fine and dandy until nature throws a wrench into your plans when you don't have the energy to make it back to your last charging station. Of course, with gas stations everywhere and with 640 miles of range, I had no problem in my Prius Prime when that happened to me.
     
  13. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Great - the same anecdote. That oh-so frequent (<1%) trip that's over 500 miles long, where there might be a rock slide or forest fire, & you have to turn around. Oh-So very true .... best for all folks contemplating such scenarios to not get an EV. Hopefully nobody is holding a gun to somebody's head to buy one.
    :rolleyes:
    .
     
  14. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    It's a common misunderstanding, especially by non-technical people, that good designs are tailored for the average use. This is an utterly and entirely false opinion.

    Designs are *always* for the extreme case *plus* safety factors (usually multiple safety factors). The "<1%" trip IS the design criteria. This is why automobiles are tested in 115 degree heat in the desert by operating them hard for hours and hours, in -40 degree freezing temperatures, on half-ice half-pavement, in side and off-center collisions, for roll-overs, and so on. The *extremes* ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT DESIGN CRITERIA!

    I've never been stranded in my life by running out of gas. If my car strands me on one trip in its lifetime, even out of thousands of trips, it is a failure. It's like an airplane that makes 30,000 flights safely and then crashes on the next one due to a mechanical problem. That plane was a failure.

    I will not let my car dictate where I can and cannot go. I bought it to serve me, not for me to serve it. If I want to go somewhere, my car has to be able to get me there - and back - with substantial safety factors.
     
  15. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Of course you will.
    Your car won’t take you to Hawaii, or the moon.

    I have been stranded in my ICE vehicles on rare occasions.
    I have never been stranded in my BEVs, and they have taken me to more places too;)
     
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  16. vvillovv

    vvillovv Senior Member

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    Can't help feeling like Toyota has missed the boat. Can't help feeling like Tesla is still targeting Prius owners as potential new customers. I think we get it, don't you?
     
  17. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    I've actually done the research about driving to Hawaii. You *can* do it, but it's too ugly to actually do.
    From running out of gas?
     
  18. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    I have been left stranded by ICE vehicles several times.
    1) cold weather fail to start due to distributor/rotor (Fiat)
    2) clutch cable broke in rush hour traffic (Toyota)

    So far my Model 3 hasn't had a problem with either of these.

    Mike
     
  19. dbg1066

    dbg1066 Junior Member

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    Yes, I absolutely agree. Of course there are still trips that are not EV-possible, but fewer every year, maybe even every month at the rate the Supercharger network is growing. Tesla's Q3 earnings call this week mentioned a tripling of the already extensive SC network in the next 2 years! My point is that many people - and I even bet some very educated folks on this forum - have no idea that they can take an EV on a multi-hundred-mile trip between major cities with no problem right now, and with planning, can take it far off the Supercharger networks. The key to the off-SC-network trip is charging at your destination - and most every destination I go to has electricity. It is a matter of letting them know you want to use some, and driving the market to let them know you are willing to pay for it (and so they will be ready to offer it to the next EV driver as well).
    Clearly, as you so eloquently indicate, rural areas are the last frontier on EV charging, and you quickly discover that RV parks are everywhere in rural America, and RV parks have 240V chargers all over because RV's use them. No, not ideal like Superchargers, but also can keep you from having to call that tow truck. On my Big Bend trip, I knew the location of nearby RV parks and a friendly General Store that allows their 240V circuit to be used if I somehow needed it- shoutout to PlugShare, a crowdsourced charging map app on the phone that shows where other folks have topped off. Those are all there for when nature / luck throws a wrench into the plans.
    But my longest Big Bend leg still left me with 29% (90+ miles spare range) when I arrived at the sweet embrace of the Interstate supercharging network again, and I never needed any RV Park fallbacks, and I could always have slowed down to extend my range instead of driving 75-80, stopped at one of several RV parks I passed, etc. It is also kind of cool that the Tesla warns you if it thinks you won't make it to the next charger, and tells you what speed to slow down to to extend your range sufficiently; I'd be shocked if the other EV's don't have that as well.
    When I moved to the EV I accepted that for the near future, I would have to either do some additional planning for the once a year (or less) that I need to get off the SC network. It has rarely been an inconvenience for me so far, and by all measures this is still early days.
     
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  20. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    The funny part is, the CCS charging infrastructure is slowly covering those trips I've taken while the Tesla Supercharger network isn't and isn't planned to. Soon, it will be possible in non-Tesla EVs but only possible in a Tesla if you buy a CCS adapter.
     
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