Obama will be announcing new CAFE requirements tomorrow - expected 55mpg

While I praise the announcement ......

what does it mean? Someone else said ... CAFE does not translate to "window sticker mpg? To achieve a "corporate average" of 54.5mpg .... doesn't that mean that half of the vehicles will need to achieve greater than 54.5 to average the half that do not? Or more probable ... this is just one of the games washington plays.

On the other hand ... like someone else said ... why not next year? The Volt gets 360 mpg doesn't it ... that is what GM said. That is better than 6x the 2025 standard.

BTW ... nice timimg BO. Here we are deep in financial problems, debt over our heads, rising interest, faultering credit ratings .... OTOH, I suppose he just want's to take our mind off our problems with some really good news. I wonder, $8000/year savings ..... in 2025 that could be several million in savings for each driver.

 

The CAFE cycle is not the same as the cycle you print on stickers in the states and is not the same cycle in the EU and not the same cycle in Asia and so on. The 3rd gen Prius gets 70mpg+ on the CAFE cycle. So it is aiming for 55mpg with CAFE standard, probably closer to 40's combined actual.

It means if they sold 1 vehicle all year, it would have to get 55mpg (CAFE) or better. If they sold 2 cars all year, they could sell one that gets 10mpg and one that gets 100mpg and that would be ok (10 + 100 / 2 >= 55). So across their fleet and range they sell, it must be greater than 55mpg when all added up. This is why SUVs are more expensive than passenger cars, so they sell more of the 30mpg cars and less of the 15mpg SUVs to bring the average up. Now you can be like Mercedes and just completely disregard it, in which case you pay a very meaningless penalty every year and move on.

The "financial problems" right now are fabricated by a few tea bagging nut jobs. The deficit should be and will be addressed, but now is not the time for this. If this was actually an outcry and the people crying had any idea what was going on, they would not have allowed it to be raised almost 20 times under bush II. The amount of debt of any person or nation is not a problem until it needs to be collected on. Some things like wars and tax cuts cost money, so it was spent. The solution is to raise the ceiling now, then do nothing and let the cuts expire. Fake problem solved. They were put in place during a time of prosperity thanks to Clinton then squandered. The times have changed, and we need revenues as we had before to get it to as it was before being squandered.

 

so the whole point of this whole new standard is really just so the government can say they are doing something responsible.. hmm... put a few smiles on people's faces. (yay moral)

i'm also one of the people who think the people will raise the standards far beyond what the government is trying to do. for the government, the car industries will simply swap inventories around, while the dealers turn a profit for a harder to find vehicle. the people will do more progress because we see what we can have in the future and buy accordingly.. we want lighter materials because it gets faster cars with greater handling along with more mpg... since every car industry is headed in that direction anyway... we just have to wait.

my parents and a lot of people around their age thought we would have flying cars in 2000... that's what dreaming is all about... we can never incorporate things as fast as they are developed... we are doing it all pretty darn fast though. (there are a lot of inventions that were patented less than 3-5 years ago that are mainstream now... 10 years used to be the standard)

 

Yep. In my other posts I pointed out the numbers that the NHW20 and ZVW30 get for CAFE purposes along w/some others that get above "54.5 mpg" for CAFE purposes + some that are very close, like the FFH and its cousins.

Actually, your Prius counts as getting "65.7778 mpg" for CAFE purposes.

 

2K1Toaster - I appreciate your explanation. I understood some of the issues, but your explanation was great.

Think of the driving public. For many (perhaps a majority) their understanding is even less than mine. Government announces a new standard .... I suspect that most drivers will be expecting 54.5 mpg. I suspect they would have a reasonable expectation of that number. The misconception is reinforced with the statement that the average driver will save $8000/year.

I like V8cobrakids' statement .... government "doing something responsible" .... never mind it is irresponsible to elevate false expectations.

 

too many loopholes really... Also this is highway miles...

In addition the truck sales was once again lowered expectations. I don't know if anyone here keeps track of the sales month by month... but I bet a pickup is # 1 seller... Last month Ford F series lead all sales, Chevy Silverado was 2nd... Dodge pickup was in top 6 or 7...

 

Can you clarify "Also this is highway miles"?

The 25 Best-Selling Vehicles In The First Half Of 2011 | The Truth About Cars

 

Re: CAFE mpg
IIRC CAFE uses one part of the test cycle that ends up as the EPA sticker we see on the windows of new cars. It is the unadjusted result of the highway test that EPA used prior to the most recent revision. This approximates to mpg at 55 mph on a warm engine.

Doesn't sound too difficult to game, does it ? The Chevy Cruze is a good example, perhaps 55 mpg CAFE, but barely 30 mpg mulroney (sp?) EPA mpg.

 

Anyone want to do the math to see if by keeping the total number of cars constant, and assuming the entire fleet meets the new numbers, whether we will be above or below the Hibbert curve?

 

CAFE and EPA are different.. and your 52MPG Prius classifies as 65MPG per CAFE. Below quote taken from 3 posts above:

 

Actually there is a solution 'brewing' if you will for the huge heavy trucks now using diesel engines.

Investigate Westport Innovations. It's on the cutting edge of using NatGas in combination with diesel fuel to jump the big rigs from 10-ish mpg up to the 20-30 mpg range.

There's a bill about to be finalized in Congress which will give strong incentives to truck makers to switch over to diesel + NatGas. The purpose being if we attack the worst offenders and solve their specific problems then the benefit to society is the greatest.

It's a no-brainer for the USPS, FedEx, municipalities with large fleets of service and trash collection vehicles and container haulers at our ports - all of which return to their 'home' garage every night for refueling. Eventually with greater availability on the retail side 18 wheelers and over-the-road trucks can be added to the NatGas+Diesel fleet.

 

I don't think that's correct. Judging by The Truth About EPA City / Highway MPG Estimates - Feature - Auto Reviews - Car and Driver, the full report at Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2010 | OTAQ | US EPA, http://www.autoobserver.com/2007/12/fuel-economy-doublespeak-at-its-best.html and http://web.archive.org/web/20090525153121/http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/News/articleId=148693 it seems they take the composite of the unadjusted results from the 2 cycle (city and highway) test.

None of the 2011 Cruzes have an unadjusted composite mileage of even 45 mpg. See Download Fuel Economy Data.

From http://priuschat.com/forums/other-c...mpg-fleetwide-average-2025-a.html#post1186028, where I posted about

From looking at the 07 data file, there are 2 2WD Tahoes and they are given UNRND COMP (EPA) numbers of ~20 and ~21 mpg. The data files don't include the boost given by the the E85 scam.

 

Re: doublespeak confusion and bashers

I drove an Ariel Atom once. I wish we had more 1000lb "deathtraps" with high-strung VTEC K20s.

 

Re: doublespeak confusion and bashers

OK, so what is the catch? If there is a truck design out there with a 30% - 50% reduction in fuel use, why aren't these trucks everywhere?

 

I came across an opinion piece (in Detroit News, so we know where the opinion is coming from) that argued that these standards should be determined by the market, not the government, and the government can "encourage" it by raising gas taxes. At first, I didn't see a huge practical difference, as either way, the government is driving the change. But I suppose there is one. High gas prices could lead to tons of fuel-efficient cars on the road, even in excess of 54.5. But with a standard, perhaps the manufacturers will just try to meet it and have no incentive to beat it? On the other hand, lots of pressure from oil companies over price and tax... Honestly, I don't know jack about the industry or how any of this works. All I do know is that people want low gas prices, probably first and foremost, frankly, rather than a car that uses less gas. But good lord, oil is finite...it's perpetually "somebody else's problem."

 

You won't see new Excursions because they were discontinued a few years ago.

I'm back in CA and I still see TONS of monstrosity class SUVs everyday and even sometimes see brand new ones w/o plates yet. (I listened back to my audio recording and made a mistake about the brand new black Ice Capade coming out of the 10+ deep In-N-Out drive thru line. It was a brand new Tahoe.) Today's driving included a sighting of a Hummer H2, driven solo, of course. Today, I saw numerous extended length monstrosities (e.g. Yukon XL), being driven solo or with 1 passenger.

The Detroit 3 still sell a large # of battering rams of death. See http://media.gm.com/content/dam/Media/gmcom/investor/2011/47320JunDel.pdf (from General Motors | Sales) and look at Yukons, Tahoes, Surburbans, Slades, etc. Here's Ford: Ford June Sales Up 14 Percent; Cars, Utilities Lead the Way; Fuel-Efficient... -- DEARBORN, Mich., July 1, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- and Chrysler: http://media.chrysler.com/newsrelease.do;jsessionid=462957BC14819C23201AF738EDA06D92?&id=11082&mid=2 (or try http://media.chrysler.com/print.do?id=11082).

If you ever come up to me neck of the woods, I'll drive you around the areas where I frequent and you'll see what I mean about the insane # of beasts.

 

Cwerda,
Thanks, I think I stand corrected. I was not able to find the method in the CFR (by rumor in Section 40, title V) but indirect discussion leads me to think that the ftp cycle weighted 55% city and 45% highway give the CAFE number. The ftp cycle does not test with AC or heating or in cold ambient temperatures.

 

Texas has lower gas prices than California (and a lower cost of living than many parts of California). We also love big trucks and stuff. I see a real variety out and about. I observe on breaks at work, for instance, although I don't know if the population is representative, and it's a mixed bag--a few prii, SUVs, plenty of mid-size or large sedans...I see Yarises (Yarii?) and even a Smart. Lots of "car" SUVs, of course, examples of which are comically escaping me at the moment. And then luxury brands or even a true sports car.

Oh, a really weird thing stops in front of that building every day. Not sure what the heck it is. Looks like a concept car released for general sale.

There are still plenty of trucks and monster SUVs, but I think especially around there, there may be more "sensible" cars, as many have to commute.

 

No reason. It is just body shape, and no moulds exist right now for them. Currently those trucks are $1million USD and up. But that is because they are "hand made". It is pretty simple to mass produce, but I don't see it happening until they are forced to.

I observe just as many gigantic trucks here as I did before. Usually the F-Whatever50 with 4 wheels in the back and huge pickup areas for the guys and the larger "crossovers" like the Q7 and the likes.