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Pascal's wager

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by daniel, Mar 18, 2012.

  1. Chuck.

    Chuck. Former Honda Enzyte Driver

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    ^ I was making an observation that apparently I share with Daniel.

    People are sociable and occasionally do good things, but it tends to get overwhelmed by the bad things that are done. The most obvious example is nearly every recorded year of human existence there has been a war (sometimes called a "conflict") Then there is rape, murder, racism, a boatload of all kinds of dangerous driving on the PC on-topic threads, dishonest companies/employees, weapons of mass destruction and rogue state reckless enough that might use them, people in denial our Earth's environment is fragile. Both of us have started threads on human failings not limited to the ones just listed.
     
  2. spiderman

    spiderman wretched

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    Cite please...
    Based on what metric?
     
  3. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    And exactly what science experiments validates this for every case in the universe? With your opening post being driven by logic, where is the logic in this statement?

    Let's move to a much simpler question. When I claim I had a dream about a flying blue dog, what techniques do scientist have to figure out if I'm telling the truth or not? As the person that experienced it, I know the truth. How would an outsider?

    Now I am not taking a side, and definitely not trying to support a counterpoint. But what you have is a hypothesis, not established knowledge. How do you prove this is an hallucination? How do you prove it is not a hallucination?
     
  4. airportkid

    airportkid Will Fly For Food

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    How about health, wealth, and dying peacefully instead of getting murdered. You guys must live in a dungeon. Bust those shackles and get out there and see what's going on!

    These have been posted here in PC before ---


    Steven Pinker on the myth of violence | Video on TED.com


    --- and a classic:

     
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  5. spiderman

    spiderman wretched

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    How dare you question Daniel the Oracle!
     
  6. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    These logic propositions drive me nuts. The discussion starts based on understandable logic premises, but then takes a quick exit out of logic at the end. "only means" is not hermetic, as you infer.
     
  7. airportkid

    airportkid Will Fly For Food

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    No one else saw it.

    But let's assume it WASN'T hallucination, it was some external phenomenon only visible to one person for god knows what reasons, it STILL isn't proof that it was God that was seen.

    You gotta ask, how would you recognize a god? Some apparition that conforms to your preconception of what a god would look like? That wouldn't prove anything, although it would strongly suggest imagination driven hallucination more than any other visual stimuli, especially since no one else can see it.
     
  8. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    These points are supportable, especially since the opinion "strongly suggest" replaces the logical qualifier "only means".

    Let me be clear here, I am not discussing what a person saw, or God, or what the NDE mechanism is. I am reiterating the standard point that Absence of Proof is not Proof of Absence. A very critical point if logic is the basis of the discussion.
     
  9. hyo silver

    hyo silver Awaaaaay

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    Fair enough. The other applicable axioms are "the burden of proof lies with those making the claim", "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence", and "what can be asserted without proof can be dismissed without proof".

    I've seen blue dogs do amazing things, but flying isn't one of them. Show me. :)
     
  10. Soldmytruck

    Soldmytruck Junior Member

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    I just can't wrap my head around the idea that a fellow human being can ever explain, to me, the existence of a God, or his/hers vision of what a God might or should be.

    Seriously, we have only a very small understanding of our place within our own solar system, hell, our own planet for that matter. And somehow I'm supposed to accept it on faith alone what my "end game" will be. It's absurd!
     
  11. spiderman

    spiderman wretched

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    Well you are in good company here.

    Have you ever really listen to any fellow human being explain their God?

    Welcome to FHOP BTW.
     
  12. drinnovation

    drinnovation EREV for EVER!

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    Well since this is Fred'shouse and others talked about some probabilities. just for fun I'll toss in my reinterpretation of Pasal's wager. I know its long but think of this is a monster stack of pancakes..

    THE ODDS

    I've studied math sublime
    and understand the odds
    there never is a time
    to bet against the gods

    Let P stand for the chance,
    the Probability,
    that life 's more than a dance
    of neuro-chemistry

    Let S stand for the gain
    of living as we please
    of showing no refrain
    of sailing with the breeze

    Let T be the time frame
    we have to live life free.
    The payoff of this game?
    (1 minus P) S T

    If god does not exist
    then what is there to gain?
    What pleasure have we missed
    that causes no one pain?

    The max that this could be,
    if god exists or not
    is simply S times T.
    So what 's the other lot?

    If we would choose to seek
    our pleasure at all cost
    we ought to take a peak
    at we may have lost

    Some say the cost is hell
    with torture, fire and pain
    others say that we'll dwell
    as bugs in life's refrain

    The outlook 's poor at best
    but how long will it last?
    It might be worth a test
    if it is over fast.

    Religions old and new
    grant god eternity.
    From Christian, Islam, Jew,
    through Aborigine

    Buddhist, Taoist, Hindu,
    all share a common theme
    restraint in what we do
    pays in the endless scheme

    Even if you think that P
    is small as small can be
    Infinity times P
    is still infinity

    If life is eternal
    then there is much to win
    If hell is infernal
    there is quite a price for sin

    If you bet we've just one shot,
    that most religion 's wrong,
    one life is all we've got
    which isn't very long

    If your life long plan
    is totally carefree
    If you bet that human
    is all we'll ever be

    If you demand hard proof
    If you thing faith 's all wet
    If you think god 's aloof
    and science is your bet

    The bets had better be
    with total certainty.
    Infinity times P
    is still infinity

    Do the details differ
    in how to find one's way?
    To whom should we refer
    for what god has to say?

    The answer to this quest
    depends on what you read.
    And billions will attest
    their's is "the god" to heed.

    If one region 's right
    and all the others wrong
    then most will face a fright
    when death does come along

    Could God be oddly cruel
    to condemn most mankind?
    Or is that just a tool
    of man's controlling mind?

    If god is fair and just,
    he cannot punish those
    who placed eternal trust
    in faiths that billions chose.

    A faith that says you must
    convert or go to hell
    betrays eternal trust
    their worldly power to sell

    Throughout history we have failed
    with Churches left and right
    Our "jihads" have derailed
    the search for truth and light

    But if you say THEIR wrong
    be careful how you flame
    even if the proof is strong
    judgment 's a risky game

    The proof had better be
    with total certainty.
    Infinity times P
    is still infinity
     
  13. Chuck.

    Chuck. Former Honda Enzyte Driver

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    I acknowledge that in the developed world lifespans have gone from 25 to 80 years, there's phones, cars, computers, internet, HVAC, etc. There's also at least a billion that have no access to clean water, a billion (?) that live on a dollar a day.

    We have too many people that act on their urge to kill, slaughtering either their family, former workers, civilian Afghans, or perfect strangers. And for everyone that kills, there are many more that while they don't kill, seriously thought about it, if just for a moment such as road rage.

    If humankind is basically good, why are we concerned about several ways we could kill ourselves...nuclear war or killing our environment among them? Is being worried about that having my head in the sand?
     
  14. Politburo

    Politburo Active Member

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    Check the story again. The comment about "all my work is rubbish" or whatever was made later in the day, hours after the NDE. It was not a dying declaration.
     
  15. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

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    From that wiki article:
    "The declarant’s statement must relate to the cause or circumstances of what he believed to be his impending death." [my emphasis]

    In other words, his statement about seeing God is only admissible if he is accusing God of murdering him.

    Which is an interesting point, come to that.
     
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  16. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    I gave several possible reasons why the doctor might lie. I also said I think it more likely the guy was mistaken.

    People come in all types. Being a doctor, or a cop, or a judge, does not make a person more honest than the next person. But see my response to Chuck above.

    NO NO NO NO NO!!!!!!!

    People are NOT basically bad. They are not basically good. They are just people. Neutral, but capable of both cruelty and kindness, generosity and selfishness, honesty and dishonesty.

    You completely misunderstand: An argument that asserts that a given choice is best, must account for all possible outcomes. The study of brain chemistry does not need to examine every brain.

    There is a large body of research concerning the human brain, and its perceptions, misperceptions, etc. I'd recommend starting with one of the Teaching Company's courses on the brain. But that's just because I like their courses. There are textbooks as well.

    The idea that god loves us is an arbitrary one introduced with Christianity. The idea that god is just, is just as arbitrary, introduced, I think, by Judaism, though in the Book of Job I would say he was extraordinarily unjust as well as cruel and capricious. The idea that god will reward some and punish others is held by some religions but not others.

    The poem is cute, but it assumes the Christian view.

    If we look at how the world works, we see incredible cruelty. Most animals live most of their lives starving, and in a constant struggle for food, and most end their lives being ripped apart and eaten by something bigger. If this was created by an intentional being, it would appear that it is infinitely cruel, or at best unconcerned with the suffering of living creatures.

    And the poem leaves out the universalist view. If god does love us, the most likely outcome is that everybody goes to heaven, no matter what they do or believe.

    As a Pastafarian, I like the FSM for letting everyone into heaven, even though the FSM does not love us. The FSM is indifferent to us, but still gives us a beer volcano in heaven, and everybody gets in.

    So, what you believe does not matter. What you do is what matters. And I don't like what fundamentalists of any religion do when they impose their dogmas on the rest of us.
     
  17. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

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    I have a question for those who think people experience near death experiences are seeing God. Is God manifesting himself to them? Or he just 'there' to be seen?
     
  18. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

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    Most animals are getting ample amounts to eat every day. Most have more free time than Humans allow themselves. We all end up as someone else's dinner, but if you can figure out a way to run a universe with life in it that does not include that, I am all ears.
     
  19. Chuck.

    Chuck. Former Honda Enzyte Driver

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    I guess we don't agree on that point after all.

    Reason I thought you would think humans are basically bad, Daniel is you emphasized people lie all the time - lie a lot. That's not merely a mistake but a serious character flaw. Yes, people occasionally do good things, sometimes very noble acts.

    Again, if humankind is not basically bad, why are we concerned that there are several ways we could exterminate ourselfs?
     
  20. Chuck.

    Chuck. Former Honda Enzyte Driver

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    A J Ayers thought he was dying.