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Peak oil

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by austingreen, Aug 9, 2013.

  1. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    The future of oil: Yesterday’s fuel | The Economist


    yep, not an article about running out, more of an article about using less.

    I hope they are correct, and we should do everything to help get to world wide peak demand soon.



     
    #1 austingreen, Aug 9, 2013
  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    On the demand side, I believe that much will depend on how vehicle demand grows in China and India. As I 've said before if you watch CCTV (CC does not stand for closed circuit) you see many ads indicating business as usual for SUVs and other large vehicles.

    On the supply side, the Hubbard curve is very accurate for times before the substantial tech advances of 'enhanced recovery' . I suppose that Hubbard was a reasonable guy, susceptible to logic and reason, and thus that he would draw his curves differently today.

    With our without enhanced, there is enough fossil fuels available to burn to get the atmosphere above 1000 ppm. Whether or not we choose to do so is a human choice. Whether or not that type of world would be the most congenial to civilization is not a human choice. It is in the realm of earth system science. We kinda don't know, but the weight of evidence does not point towards congenial.

    The higher we go, the more difficult and costly it would be to undo.

    Sorry for the 'big picture' off topicking.
     
    #2 tochatihu, Aug 9, 2013
  3. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Hubbard curve works well for conventional oil, as long as unconventional can substitute. When unconventional is put in the equation (and that includes biofuels, oil sands, gtl) it does not work well at all. When people confuse peak conventional oil, with peak energy for cars, they get many things wrong.

    I am not sure that it will not be congenial, but it would likely be better if we stopped short of doubling ghg levels. That is one reason why peak oil demand happening sooner is a good thing.

    ghg emissions are one reason for limits of peak demand. It should be remembered though that takes governments. Often the governments encourage higher consumption. Both the US and Chinese, as well as many others, encourage oil consumption. The EU by not properely counting imported goods ghg impact, has shifted more manufacturing to china, and more coal use world wide. Ignoring the dragon is a mistake when it comes to oil demand or ghg output.
     
    #3 austingreen, Aug 10, 2013
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