PHEV Prius Pricing According to Toyota V.P.

First plugging in while at work during the day defeats one of the key proposed benefits of the technology; i.e. plugging into the grid during off peak hours when people are not at work. In fact it may become law or the prices may be adjusted such that plugging in during the day is not possible or outrageously expensive. I wouldn't count on that option.

Yes I expect that plugging in will be the future for a large segment of the population when there is enough weight in demand ( vehicles on the road ) for hotels, apartment complexes, etc to make the investments to install charging stations. When? My guess is the end of the next decade.

However certain segments of the driving public still will never be able to plugin simply because of where they live.

Here's the rub. No maker can plan on EVs, EREVs, and PHEVs being anything more than a niche in their plans for a considerable period of time. Again I'd estimate the decade of the 20s. In the meanwhile.... development has to proceed, technologies have to be tested and other new technologies have to be brought into play. Some of these new techologies may actually be easier to market and to profit from. Toyota apparently feels that CNG and FCHVs are like this.

 

"In order for EVs to be everything we want them to be, we need to promote their use, and some early adopters need to buy and demonstrate their use. EVs can't get to where we want them to be in one giant leap. It will take some generations... all the more reason that we need to start yesterday. There is no "perfect" car. Some people can't use a truck. Some people can't use a sedan. Some people can't use a motorcycle. But they're all available for those who can and who wish to use them for their intended purpose. All I'm asking is for the same thing with EVs. Battery cars need to be available for the people who can use them today. For most of our every-day driving tasks, EVs are superior to a gasoline vehicle. Almost zero maintenance. Cheap fuel. Clean. Powerful. Quiet. No oil changes and no visits to the gas station."

The above is shamelessly stolen from Darell's EV page. I could write a two page rant on how big SUV's (or motorcycles or monster trucks or...)do no work for ME, therefore they will never be more than a niche product. It is all about ME, if it does not fit MY needs perfectly it is worthless!
Oh, wait a minute, I just noticed that big SUV's, motorcycles and monster trucks have been profitable built and sold for decades. So it isn't "all about ME?"

So let's repeat one more time: "EVs will NOT be the perfect vehicle for EVERYONE, ALL THE TIME! But they are the PERFECT vehicle for 75%* of the people 75%* of the time!


* insert your own number here, YMMV

 

Absolutely EVs, PHEVs and EREVs must be developed for the future, there's no question about that.

My own numbers* to insert in your sentence are.....
3% and 75% by 2015
10% and 75% by 2020
25% and 75% by 2030


In theory you may be correct that 75% of the population could use EVs 75% of the time but ...

• the population must be convinced to use EVs
• the population must be able to afford EVs
• the infrastructure must be available for the population to use EVs
• the vehicle makers must be able to make a profit from the sale of EVs
• the forces arrayed against EVs must be overcome.

Each of these five factors introduces a discount on your 75%. The conversion will come simply because EVs are a better solution for personal transportation. But When?

 

Keep in mind, you can NOT plug into anywhere there is 110V or 220V outlet. You'll need J1772 plug-in connector to charge.

 

The plug that goes into Prius looks like below. It has to be installed in your garage (or any other charging location) -- I don't think the other end of the plug goes to a wall socket. So you can't take the cable with you and plug it into any wall socket to charge.

More info at [ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAE_J1772"]J1772 wiki page[/ame].

 

SI's the only borough that I never lived in during the 35 yrs I lived and worked in NYC...
...Bronx @ northern end of the 1 Train
...Seagate in Coney Island @ the end of the N Train
...the Village
...Jamaica @ the end of the E/F Trains
...offices in Midtown and Hudson St.
although there are plenty of places in Queens, somewhat fewer in the Bronx, where middle class people own their own private homes.

In none of these places would it have been possible to 'plug in' during the evening or during the day.

 

I just wanted to post to echo your concerns. I lived in Brooklyn's Navy Yard area / south Williamsburg for a few years. I can't imagine having a plug in car there. We don't have our own parking spaces and if you did happen to have some kind of plug going to your car, yes, it would be vandalized and so would your car. And probably some homeless guy would decide to start sleeping on your car too

Anyone living in a big city like NYC sure seems to maybe be excluded from EVs. Man, that sucks.

 

With an expected 30% jump in population by 2030 I'm going to guess that there will be another paradigm for personal transportation in large metro areas. Can you imagine an an additional 30% of drivers on the road? My commute from Wayne, NJ to Hudson & Houston took anywhere from 90 min to 3 hrs depending on the tunnels. Wish I had my Prius back in the 80s and 90s.