Polar Ice for 2017

Just attended Climate March near my town. I felt in our current political climate, marching is just not enough. Sigh

 

15 New Papers: Scientists Abandoning Claims Of Dominant Man-Made Influence On Arctic Climate

 

Who knew?Arctic Sea Ice is near the highest levels in the past 7000 years(likely 10,000)

 

Graph @25 is most welcome. Appears to show 6 decreases in West Greenland similar in scale to the most recent one, from 500 years ago to the last data used. To make that current one would want to know what that measurement is currently. Sha et al's core ends 130 years ago.

With that we could better approach the question of current sea-ice concentration.

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Providing links to all these studies is a good thing. If all one knows about them is what no tricks zone tells you, they are an underutilized resource to be sure.

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Another of the links is to Li et al., with Fig 4. shown. I mention this because it is a topic we have addressed before. That the GISP2 core 'top' proxies to -31.6 oC. Onsite air T from 2008 through 2016 averages -28.8 oC. Higher than any proxy T from the GISP2 core.

It was 2016 June when I collected those data, and soon should look for another year data from those brave (cold) weatherfolk.

 

Global heat redistribution is a time-varying thing, even when CO2 does not vary much. I have no doubt this is the main message of many of the 17 cited articles. This was important message in those 2 I looked at. No response to the other 15 (maybe later? maybe somebody else is interested?).

According to no tricks zone they also establish that heat redistribution prevails even when CO2 does increase. This is not correct for those 2 articles - it was not within their their scope. Whether the website also misleads concerning the other 15 I don't know.

BobW points out that global heat redistribution doesn't care whether heat arose from infrared trapping. Seems intuitive, but one would want to get a better handle on it. We return, unfortunately, to realizing that ocean-dynamics modeling is not yet very skillful. Matters to me much more than any amount of waving and spinning. From any 'flank' of wavers and spinners.

 

You mean, it was at the last plotted datapoint. That was more than a century ago. I want to see a 21st Century datapoint on there.

 

This should be doable. Would make sense to contact Sha, who published details of the transfer function in 2014. Ask "for what area, and for what times of year, should we look at ice-cover imagery?" Then do it. I am a fan of keeping original authors in the loop.

Actually Fig. 6 of Sha et al. 2014 shows most recent (April) sea ice at about 15%. This may be answer the question, but it seems most important to run that by Sha, and get 'a blessing' on the comparison.

 

Presuming that @31 is on the right track, it might be quite interesting to contact Sha Longbin of Ningbo University about this. (S)he may be unaware of this work being 'reinterpreted' by no tricks. Might even be 'bu kwaila'.

I tell ya, mojo is a sparkler among PriusChat's box of damp fireworks.

 

Admundsen did the NW passage in the timeframe of the endpoint of the 7000 year graph.In a wooden boat nonetheless.
Meaning you will have a bitch of a time proving there is much less ice now.
But go for it.
Citations?

 

Amundsen:

"He planned a small expedition of six men in a 45-ton fishing vessel, Gjøa, in order to have flexibility. His ship had relatively shallow draft. His technique was to use a small ship and hug the coast ...
Because the water along the route was sometimes as shallow as 3 ft (0.91 m), a larger ship could not have made the voyage"

Roald Amundsen - Wikipedia

"... some of the waterways were extremely shallow (3 ft (0.91 m) deep), making the route commercially impractical."

 

"Citations?"@34. Might make sense to start with the 17 you linked. First two I looked at lend support to the idea. Contrary to no-tricks 'tricks'. Fifteen more await examination.

Polar ice dynamics might resemble air-T dynamics in the sense that they are routinely variable, but that current rates of change have been unusually rapid. However, proxies often have limited time resolution. So we work with what we have.

Current efforts to core marine sediments off the (south polar) Pine Island Glacier. They aim to examine Antarctic ice dynamics for the past several million years. Wishing well for that effort; if Holocene includes times of dynamic ice loss they will surely detect that.

 

Also Ahmundsen did not make the passage in one season. He overwintered on the southeast coast of King William Island in a protected bay.

 

Elsewhere in Arctic, freezeproof global seed vault had a surprise mini-thaw:
The Arctic seed vault had to deal with melting permafrost last winter | Ars Technica

 

overwintered @38. For two years. Now he'd just pop right through I suppose. Those wacky explorers in times gone by provide part of the evidence that Arctic is currently unusual.