Polar Ice for 2017

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by bwilson4web, Mar 22, 2017.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    With no incident sunlight at a shallow enough angle ... maybe. But they should be in 24 hour sun by now. So it is more likely the east wind blew in the cold air for just under a day. Then it switched back from the west.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #101 bwilson4web, Jul 8, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2017
  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I am quite sure that these very cold July temperatures occurred at night, so let us exclude sunlight from discussion. Wind speed also went unusually low. Seems likely a clear sky condition. But, one would suppose other clear-sky calm nights occur, and not quite so cold. I have no suggestion what else may have differed that night.
     
  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Evaluation of Greenland near surface air temperature datasets
    J. E. Jack Reeves Eyre and Xubin Zeng
    The Cryosphere, 11, 1591–1605, 2017

    https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1591-2017

    Authors take all available T measures (surface, radiosonde, satellite) for Greenland, 1860-2010. Make T vs. elevation models also, because top of Greenland (3200 meters) is much colder than edges. They find much inconsistency among the records. After assembly, 1860-1970 period is very flat. Authors state that there must have been variation through time but records don’t reveal it. From 1970 to 2010, about 1.6 oC increase, which is about twice global rate for same time.

    Authors also find Greenland parts of global T compilations (HADCRUT, GISS and BEST) are not very accurate. If you have misgivings about those compilations, you will be pleased! But only by accepting that since-1970 pattern eh? I mean, fair is fair.

    Greenland T.png
     
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  5. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    How quickly did those past warm periods get warm? Was there no disruptions during those warmings?

    CO2 levels were also much higher when you go back hundreds of millions of years. High enough that humans would require respirators to survive. We are heading towards 1000ppm if nothing changes in our fossil fuel use. Our brain function degrades at those levels.
     
  6. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Claim: CO2 makes you stupid? Ask a submariner that question | Watts Up With That?
    "We try to keep CO2 levels in our U.S. Navy submarines no higher than 8,000 parts per million, about 20 time current atmospheric levels. Few adverse effects are observed at even higher levels. – Senate testimony of Dr. William Happer,"
     
  7. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Judging from our current society, I'd say a brain functions may degrade around 380ppm ;)
     
  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    24 hour [email protected] By golly you are right and I shall have to bask in dim glow of own ignorance.

    I was 'entranced' by there still being a 24-hr T cycle. That, further, I cannot explain in such a setting.
     
  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    There is evidence that CO2 concentrations as low as 1000 ppm affect cognition

    Elevated Indoor Carbon Dioxide Impairs Decision-Making Performance | Berkeley Lab

    While we will not soon make the atmosphere 1000 ppm (many would hope for 'never' there), it should be recognized that refers to everywhere 24/7. After indoor studies such as above, people could go outside and catch a breath.

    One study found negative effects below 500 ppm. It is often mentioned when this topic comes around (again again again)

    Health effects of increase in concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
    D. S. Robertson
    CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 90, NO. 12, 25 JUNE 2006
     
  10. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Submarine crews are only exposed to that for maybe 90 days at most, and not for a lifetime.
     
  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I suppose every submarine navy in the world keeps track of crew exposures to CO2. It is so easy to measure (because it absorbs infrared light). But I see no reason why any of them would declassify those data.

    If US Navy holds 8000 ppm as a hard upper limit (and I'm not sure why I'd believe that), it does not imply 90 days @8000.
     
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  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    Let's ask our local expert, @ETC(SS) ?

    Bob Wilson
     
  13. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    If one presumes that CO2 is linked to long term brain injury or cognition impairment then a submariner would be the last person that you would ask about the subject.

    Ever wonder why they always express CO2 in parts per million instead of tenths of percentage points like they used to?

    I used to lean up against our CAMS stack when I was in my ESM bay (it was my back wall), as I was wont be when the boat was going to or from PD.
    I seem to remember getting a nod the IC1 whose job it was to silence the blaring alarm that was announcing our imminent doom from CO when the Officer of the Deck couldn't keep the diesel exhaust mast downwind of the induction mast when we were operating the diesel (our biggest piece of damage control gear) to ventilate the boat following catastrophic events that we were drilling to prevent.
    I do not recall ever.....not once in 10 patrols having or hearing a conversation about limiting CO2 to a specific value.
    I do recall MANY times walking up to the CAMS to see what the CO2 value is because when you combine a relatively low O2 content (18-19 percent or 180000 to 190000ppm) with a relatively high CO2 content and 70 consecutive days of interrupted sleep you get "the headache."
    Since I'm not a former Senator, or a current White House Council......just to keep both tribes happy, I won't try to say for sure what that value is or was.
    Truth is......I simply do not remember for sure.
    Probably the brain impairment talking....but we DID keep tabs on the atmosphere, and we were worried enough about CO2 to have an entire equipment space dedicated in part to scrubbing CO2 out of the air....but I am sure that we were more interested in what happens above 2-3 PERCENT (20000-30000ppm) than about being a play-pretty in some future AGW debate.

    Submarines always have and had a sharp, and very characteristic odor.
    Back in Dubbaya-Dubbaya Twice, it used to be the four "Fs"---Fuel (Diesel) Feet, Food and....well you can probably guess.
    Modern submarines have an oily Amine smell.
    Amine - Wikipedia
    Amine is the active chemical used in the CO2 Scrubbers, which combined with a nuclear-powered ventilation system will pretty much keep CO2 at bay in a sewer-pipe filled with you and 130 of your closest friends.
    However......(comma!) there will always be areas (berthing/Mess decks/Lounges) with higher than normal levels of all kinds of things, and ops or equipment failures will also make it hard at times to keep the atmosphere in geometry.
    Also.....when a submarine is operating under the ice pack, playing in somebody's back yard and navigating by street lamps, or covering a target package with SLICBMs, sometimes you don't have the luxury of taking a quick trip topside to ventilate.
    Boomers especially used to go for weeks (up to a dozen) at a time without going to periscope depth.

    The USN you see, does not like paying out SGLI (life insurance.)
    It's bad for morale and it creates literally tons of paperwork.
    So.....the NRL developed CAMS---which monitors air taken from several (more than a dozen, less than 100) places inside the hull.

    Central Atmosphere Monitoring System - U.S. Naval Research Laboratory
    .....In 1975, NRL developed the Central Atmosphere Monitor System (CAMS), which allowed submarine crews, for the first time, to reliably monitor the air aboard their boats. CAMS is a combination carbon dioxide detector and fixed-collector mass spectrometer that monitors hydrogen, water, nitrogen, carbon monoxide, oxygen, carbon dioxide, and refrigerant gases. The system became the first submarine air monitor to be "service approved" and was subsequently installed on all U.S. Navy nuclear submarines. NASA also uses a variant of this system for manned space vehicles

    I'll add this:

    Claim: CO2 makes you stupid? Ask a submariner that question | Watts Up With That?

    "Data collected on nine nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines indicate an average CO2 concentration of 3,500 ppm with a range of 0-10,600 ppm, and data collected on 10 nuclear-powered attack submarines indicate an average CO2 concentration of 4,100 ppm with a range of 300-11,300 ppm (Hagar 2003). – page 46"

    These data seem plausible.


    Then???
    I found THIS from HM's Royal Navy:
    They use a slightly different system for CO2, and a MUCH different scheme for determining when to worry about CO2 which I'll say is unique to say the least.
    Plausible?
    YMMV....
    They must not use soda dispensers on their mess decks or allow any form of smoking.

    COSAMS
    COSAMS offers continuous, real-time monitoring of CO in the living accommodation and machinery spaces. The maximum permissible concentrations (MPCs) of CO allowed on submarines vary from nation to nation and with the type of boat, diesel electric, AIP, nuclear, owing to their different submergence times. A typical continuous exposure level would be between 15 to 25ppm, with higher limits (up to 175ppm) in emergency situations e.g. 60 minute and 24 hour limits, and it’s these limits which define the measuring range for the COSAMS unit.
    CO is measured with an infra-red (IR) sensor using a gas filter correlation technique, this sensor is ideal for use where accurate low level measurements are required or where background gases have the potential to interfere with the measurement.


    So......TIFWIW.
     
    #113 ETC(SS), Jul 11, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2017
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    Looks like NorthEast passage is navigable with ice breaker assist, July 19.

    Also open, the NorthWest passage although there is one potential choke point that isn't clearly visible in the satellite data.

    This is based upon the ice density. It looks like the choke points still have broken pack ice which depending on the winds, could jam up. Arctic navigation like any waters is subject to weather.

    FYI, Camp Summit in Greenland has a curious temperature profile with a strong wind out of the SouthEastSouth.

    Bob Wilson
     
  16. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Many new volcanoes have been discovered on Antarctic ice, though none seem to be erupting now:

    shortlink
     
  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    Thanks! I'd seen the title in the news but not followed up:

    ...
    Max Van Wyk de Vries, a third-year undergrad, got the ball rolling on this discovery after noticing possible traces of volcanism on publicly-available radar maps of Antarctica. He suggested to the school’s geologists that a more rigorous survey be conducted to confirm his initial findings, and they agreed. ...

    Perhaps this will be the type of straw that will encourage NOAA/NASA/EPA to instrument Antarctica for quantifiable metrics of heat and gasses.

    Bob Wilson
     
  18. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Agree. Since you quoted, I will further emphasize this was done by a 3rd year undergraduate. Impressive.
     
  19. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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  20. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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