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prius phv world wide sales

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by austingreen, Oct 30, 2014.

  1. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    not in priuschat anyway. only the antagonizers come here.:cool:
     
  2. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I think only people on prius chat have asked for a volt with a smaller battery. In the polls people have requested more range.

    The other cars will use the voltec drive train but won't be volts. That is where they will offer a plug-in with a 5th seat. Why give details about price or range, when it may reduce current volt sales. They also have a longer range bev in the works.

    With falling gas prices gm sees the cruze, sonic, and spark are their inexpensive gas only cars. Yes if you really want a hybrid without a plug you should not look at gm, not that anyone was looking at gm fo hybrids anyway.

    The gm messaging today is nothing like you are pretending it to be.

    Wagoner did admit that he should have invested more in hybrids a decade ago, but now it really is too late for gm to grab a slice of the hybrid maket, why not concentrate on plug-ins (phevs and bevs). Lutz bashed hybrids when they first came out, much like toyota seems to be bashing plug-ins. Its a shame. I hope toyota comes out with a great next gen phv, but they may be heading in gm's old bashing direction. It would be great if on the next anoucement of how great the fcv is, toytoa would anounce it was rolling out the phv to other states, and it supports plug-ins and will have a bigger battery in the next one. Instead I expect the same old stuff, "no one is asking us for electric cars" and the promise that they will ignore any requests as we don't know who to ask.
     
    #22 austingreen, Nov 3, 2014
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2014
  3. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    The states the Prius PHV is currently available in supposedly represent 60% of Prius sales.
    o_O
    There were rumors of 2 Volt models like there are 2 to 4 Prii models now available. All GM said above was to say that rumor wasn't true. They didn't say no to a high-efficiency model of a different name, or claimed customers weren't asking for one. Toyota saying no to more Prius models isn't saying no to more hybrids.

    You are reading something that isn't there. While a top Toyota has stated no one is asking for an electric car. Which is quite clear.
     
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  4. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Like some are doing with Toyota ?
     
  5. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    cool so there are a few ways to skin this cat. We can think sales would be 66% higher like prius if they rolled it out, or realize plug-ins are more geographically constrained. You probably only need to roll out to 5 more states, if they are the right states to increse sales about 40%. Or you could realize canceling roll out may decrease sales even in carb states because it shows a lack of commitment of toyota to the car.

    You mean we are imagining that toyota canceled the nation wide roll out of the prius phv. We are imagining that toyota said ...
    Toyota: 'No One Wants Us To Build Electric Cars'
    back in 2012 while trying to not sell its own rav4 ev at least there was mention of the phv.
    Who Killed The Electric Car? Toyota Now Tries For That Role - Forbes
    http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303918804579107213728805086
    Please note he said toyota is commited to fuel cells becuase they think there is a market. They are doing hv (not phevs). They aren't doing bevs, but though omission and tone it sounds like they don't support phevs either, this is clear from other toyota communication. This is a change in 2013 versus 2012. It would have been so simple for him to have added the prius phv to the discussion but it seems like that is not really any commitment to phev in the plans unlike the fuel cell. When the statement came out last year, people thought it meant that toytoa would kill the rav4 ev program at end of the mandatory contract, even if it was sucessful and would not support the phv. Well Rav4 ev is now killed, and I don't see much support in pr or rollout for the phev.
     
    #25 austingreen, Nov 3, 2014
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  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    trollbait, i'm not sure i follow you, are you saying that 40% of pip sales are in unauthorized states?
     
  7. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    No, the states chosen for the once initial PHV rollout represent 60% of nationwide Prius(non-plug) sales. If available nationwide, and sold at the same rate, the PHV sales could be a little less than 66% higher, or their sales 40% lower being constrained to those states, phrased another way.

    Some of those living outside a release state did order their PHV, so I say a little less than what the Prius NP numbers say.

    Simply put, the Prius PHV could have been beating the Volt on monthly sales regularly if it were nationally available.
     
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  8. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i don't think you can equate pip % sales by state to lift back. but it would sure be interesting to know. at the volt numbers though, i just don't think toyota's that interested. there can't be any profit at that level of mass production.
     
  9. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    There is little difference. Identical body, style, form factor.
    I agree we can't know for certain. However it seems a decent first level approximation.
    If you have a better suggestion as to how to make the approximation, I'd be eager to hear it.
     
  10. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Knowing that GM's marketing hype would heavily promote "EV MILES" and seeing that is indeed what ended up happening, it simply made no sense to push this generation of PHV.

    That $5,000 tax mismatch made the decision to focus on refinement of the system in the meantime was a good choice.

    My 145-mile road trip yesterday resulted in a 57 MPG average, despite starting in the morning with just a 0.5 miles of EV available.

    Toyota's upcoming thermal improvements will make that even better, allowing the PHV to deliver even higher blended (plug & gas) efficiency.

    That's what will work well for high-volume sales without tax-credit or HOV incentives.
     
    #30 john1701a, Nov 3, 2014
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2014
  11. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Well you see i included that quote from 2012. And you are right pushing low ev miles does not work.

    Higher percentage of electric miles seems to be importnnat for the initial adopters of the technology as does price. That means toyota's hippy dippy marketing simply is not effective, not that the car is bad. Definitely deciding not not roll it out to other states hurts sales, it doesn't help them, and I doubt it helps overall prius profitability.

    Toyota was in the room when the tax incentives were written. It could have put a bigger battery in there. Instead it tryed a nuanced advertising approach that adopters want small batteries because they will use less of them. Well it simply has not been effective and whining over past choices just seems counter productive. They can sell the stuff they have, or do a redesign. They have chosen to delay the redesign, so hey I threw up the numbers that say they should sell the stuff they have. What $4000 incentive in california, $5000 incentive in texas (if they would sell it) seems like a huge amount for a puny 4.4kwh battery. How can they not make money on those numbers?

    So why don't you think it will sell in other states if toyota actually tries to get their marketing right? I don't really want to hear how great the upcoming fcv will be in texas, when I know they will never sell them here, and them using it as an excuse not to sell plug-ins here, even though people are asking for and driving them. That makes no sense.

    I think if they don't increase the battery size in the next generation they will have definitely be a failure. Battery costs are down. If they want to compete they need more miles that are at least mainly battery. In the mean time I am disapointed that they choose to put out PR against plug-ins instead of selling the one they have.
     
  12. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Incentives / HOV will be here as long as the auto manufacturing lobby remains in favor of plugins. If plugins give competition to hydrogen cars - then plugins will be branded as their red headed step kids.
    .
     
  13. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    First, the use of "increase" is not constructive. That is so vague, it could mean anything. Please specify something quantitative.

    Second: WHO? WHO? WHO? It's absolutely absurd at this point stating failure but not indicating what audience.

    Toyota's market is the everyday joe, the basic consumer that's just plain not interesting in the "hybrid premium". Adding to that a "plug premium" is totally unrealistic for high-volume sales. The battery must remain within the hidden space available to attract those buyers.

    The fact that the tax-credit was written to favor larger capacity rather than spreading the same amount of money to more consumers is the mistake. Toyota held true to their audience.
     
  14. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I don't know about that. I think when we have sold 1 million plug-ins the incentives will be left to expire. That means tesla, gm, and nissan are likely to get the full 200,000 with toyota fighting with ford, bmw, and everyone else for the rest of them money.

    The deception of toyota's marketing is that they on one hand complain that tesla S, leaf, and volt get high incentives, while on the other hand saying the higher incentives the fuel cell vehicles par car are getting need to be higher. It is the same as koch brother's complaining about plug-in incentivs while at the same time lobbying heavily for oil subsidies. You know fcv can't stand on their own for at least 20 years if ever, and toyota may be continuing to not sell the fuel cells natural enemy a big batteried phev to try and keep the goernment money flowing.

    Who in the hell will buy a 4.4kwh phev in 2018? That is my question to you. We have the polls of plug-in drivers for who wants more range when they opt for a plug in. Who do you think this market is saying we want to keep the battery small? Those that want a small battery won't buy a plug-in at all at that date.

    This is really getting old. Toyota marketing have already said customers want a bigger battery. Uchiyamada already said customers are confused by small battery marketing. I am vague because toyota is vague at how much they may increase it. I would say it needs to be at least 6kwh to sell a plug-in instead of a liftback unsubsidized. Poor sales in Japan show that sizing it to a hypothetical japanese comute didn't work out well. American sales are much more on track.

    With the subsidies though toyota could sell a great deal more prius phv's if they wanted to sell more. R&D costs are already spent and the car has to be profitable on a variable cost basis in the US. Why not roll it out to at least 5 more states and increase the sales? That may help them more easily sell the next generation when it comes out in a little more than 2 years.
     
    #34 austingreen, Nov 3, 2014
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2014
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  15. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    you can use whatever you want, but most people have a different viewpoint on a plug in, and some states don't offer tax or hov incentives. and you have a much more expensive battery with only an 8/100 warranty.
     
  16. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I can see why you wouldn't care about rolling it out to montana, but why not let dealers say in austin sell it with a big incentive($2500 state + $2500 federal + $30/6 months public charging), and a study of chargin habits? Florida and Illonois also have good markets.

    Toyota is not forced to offer a lower waranty in these states but they are allowed to do it. Lower waranty cost should mean more profit for toyota shouldn't it?
     
  17. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i'm talking about buyers incentives, not toyota's reasons. i can't answer for them and don't see the point of fruitless speculation. (other than the fun factor:))
     
  18. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    If Toyota's goal is a PHV for the Everyman, they have to offer it to everybody.
     
  19. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    well many states do have buyers incentives including mine. Toyota dealers passed legislation here to block tesla from getting state incentives, but got $2500 on a prius phv if they could sell them. I hear from the dealers they want to sell them, but corporate doesn't want them too, or maybe corporate just wants tesla's sales to be lower. idk.

    commenters want to handicap toyota's sales because they haven't rolled it out as promised. Well I agree that sales would be higher if they rolled it out, but you can't use it as an excuse, because its toyota's choice. Certainly many of us would like higher prius phv sales.

    You can't claim toyota built the car for the mass market, then make sure it doesn't get sold to the mass market. It just makes no sense. Bisco I know you haven't made the claims but others here have. I would think they would be with me telling toyota to make the car more available and to stop bashing plug-ins.
     
  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i didn't.