Q3 countdown

As state above, not from the mouth of Musk.

However, at the risk of feeding the, er, pessimists:
[I previously posted essentially the following July this year]

The closest I am aware of what you are suggesting may have come from Musk on April 1, 2016:

Rough Transcript of Tesla Model 3 Launch | BYP Group

So when are deliveries? They’re next year. So I do feel fairly confident it will be next year. [Nervous laughter from Musk and the crowd 11:37] Ha ha.

And then in terms of price, it will be $35,000. And I want to emphasise that even if you buy no options at all, this will still be an amazing car. You will not be able to buy a better car at $35,000 or even close even if you get no options. So it’s a really good car even nwith no options.​

AFAIK Musk did not explicitly detail the precise time a $35k model would be released and didn't say the $35k model would be there from the start.

At the time lots of folks got excited, assumed the $35k version would be available soon after launch time, knew if they could get the $7.5k fed tax credit that this would be a steal. Message boards full of optimists at the time IIRC.


Musk has done a lot more good than not. Just needs to delegate some more and run his Tweets by the board.

 

Today was a good day for this.....
(otherwise it would have been above the fold)

The SEC just went nuclear on Elon Musk. Here's what happens next

Tesla's Elon Musk is a liar, he will do anything to keep stocks elevated: Blaine Capital

 

Like the SCOTUS hearing today, so much hyperpartisanism on this.

 

you and i must be reading this from two completely different points of view.
what i read is them describing what they hope to do, and the caveat by the author of the article,'a lot can change in 3 years'.
what you seem to have read is a promise, or guarantee that there would be a 30k tesla by now, but i don't see that anywhere in the article.

 

+1

If you're into TSLA for the long haul...tomorrow AM might be a good time to buy.
I'm more bearish myself, but this is because I think that the stock is overbought, demand is only marginal, and they're going to be facing as-yet undetected long-term supply issues.....NOT because I think that BEVs are nonviable or because EVangelists are so much fun to tease....

 

Stick with me here, as this may sound inflammatory but it's not intended that way. Consider this Bloomberg article from early 2016, just a few months before customers were able to place deposits. Unfortunately most of the article is behind a pay wall but pay particular attention to the Musk quote as it fades out.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-09/will-the-tesla-model-3-really-sell-for-25-000

​

I chose this link because it's a definitive statement from what I consider to be an unbiased news outlet. This is important because it was setting the expectations not only of customers who were putting down $1000 deposits, but also investors who were buying newly issued Tesla stock. In short, people were making financial decisions based on statements just like this.

And apparently Tesla caught the attention of the SEC back then as well: Tesla was under federal investigation over Model 3

The SEC investigation into the company ended in May with no enforcement action taken. But the regulator’s refusal, on law enforcement grounds, to provide certain other records suggested that “there is at least one other unresolved SEC probe” into Tesla, according to investment-research firm Probes Reporter, which obtained and published the SEC records. The research firm noted that Tesla had not told investors it was the subject of an SEC probe.

SEC documents show the commission started investigating Tesla because it believed the company might have been “making false statements of material fact or failing to disclose material facts concerning the company’s Model 3 vehicle.”​

So my question to you is at what point did Tesla stop making "hopeful" statements and start setting realistic expectations for customers and investors?

​

 

Wow. That video could have been called "Tesla Bear's Greatest Hits"

 

I see where your confusion comes from. It's your sources. Consider for example what they said, in light of the fact that GM for years now as already been purchasing theire traction packs at about $150/kwh.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/insideevs.com/lg-chem-ticked-gm-disclosing-145kwh-battery-cell-pricing-video/amp/#ampshare=https://insideevs.com/lg-chem-ticked-gm-disclosing-145kwh-battery-cell-pricing-video/
But your article's so-called "expert" (quoted below) seems to think that cost-wise, it's impossible to get traction packs purchased for 150/kWh - which GM has already done.

.

 

that's the problem, there is no definitive answer to your question. as a customer, you are always at a disadvantage until you choose not to be one.
as an investor, you forecast the future based on all the available data.
that is how capitalism works.

in neither case is there a guarantee of the future. musk continues to say that they are going to produce a 35k model. i have no reason to doubt his intentions, or reason to believe they will ever get there.
i hope they do, and i think costs will continue to drop as they have been, if mass production continues.

if tesla can continue to sell cars for more than 35k at the rates they can produce them, why would they drop the price, even if their costs keep dropping? there is no competition, and supply/demand rules the day.
and why would investors want them to drop the price?

 

Indeed, and done! Got in at $270/share.

 

I can answer that one!
I fix phones for a living but I think that marketing types call that a "land grab."

Tesla versus everybody else is shaping up to be more like IOS versus Droid rather than VHS versus Betamax, and one would think that this places big T in a really COOL position to dominate a relatively new industry.....but there are several rather important differences!

Cars aint's phones.
The average length of ownership is now 7 years.
Customers demand that all of the little things that make cars CARS.....doors, windows, seats, rims, brakes, cupholders, doorlocks, etc all stay relatively functional over that period......otherwise?
You're Dodge.
Great Powertrain!
Sucks as a car.
(Sorry Mopar fans!)

The other thing that people LIKE to forget is that Apple was a mature, profitable company (ish) in 2007 and they had a butt-ton of what military folks call teeth and tail.
What this means is that Apple was big enough to kick in the door and occupy the space, AND they had the logistical tail to stay there.

They're already having problems with their suppliers, and the first $35,000 T3 is still about an Elephant gestation period from being delivered.

Musk is the CEO.
He and his board have a fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders.
He also has SEC trouble, which meand that he's failing in his primary responsibility......which has NOTHING to do right now with making cars!!

Put another way.....if you're a mature, industry leader in high quality metal injection molding, seat manufacturing, ECU fabrication, glass, etc are you going to try to be a supplier for FORD or Tesla right about now?

It's Friday....before 1Q2019.

It will be interesting to see how they close!

 

Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen...

 

Tesla's plan from the beginning, before Musk was involved, was to start with high end, high margin cars, and work their way down to the more affordable, lower margin models. Yes, they wanted to prove that the electric car is a viable replacement to the ICE powered ones, but they also knew they couldn't do that if they failed as a company. The introduction of the Model 3 trims is following that.

Right now, their production is enough to clear out the orders for the expensive trims. Building the base one would be a distraction at this point when the world is watching to see them make a profit. Tesla never promised when the $35k would become available, and they started filling the reservations for the high end trims for the S and X first. The difference now is that shear number of reservations and orders means it will take more time to get to the base trim than it did previously.

When the federal tax credit was set at $7500 for a 16kWh battery, it only covered part of the pack's cost. It now covers more than the cost. The rate of cost decreasing has been faster than was predicted when the law was written.

The 4 year old report was wrong. The hold up to getting the $35k model isn't battery costs, it is production rates. For lower cost products, you have to make them at faster rates, or you lose the profits to labor and factory overhead. Tesla has gotten those rates up. They need to trim some inefficiencies from that, but the only hold up from batteries is in their supply, and Panasonic is opening up 3 more production lines at the Gigafactory.

Again, dated data. $30k in 2012 is $33,372.51 today when adjusted for inflation. CPI Inflation Calculator
GM announced the Volt would be $30k or less. It was almost $40k when first released.

Increasing the price of paints can be more than a money grab. The $14,500 red for the Viper was that much in part because it took a week to apply. The Model T only came in black because it was the quickest color to dry. Colored toilets cost more in part, because you are paying for the rejects that don't pass QA.

Tesla's price increases could be to cover the additional time to apply or fix it. If the colors are less popular, a price increase could be to kill off demand to reduce part stocking costs. Perhaps those specific colors are the main cause of the fires they've had.

Tesla also increased the price for the non performance dual motor 3. It is because of their motor supply chain. They are getting a set ratio of the rear motors used by the AWD model to the one used by the RWD and performance AWD. They had an oversupply of the latter. So basic supply and demand rules.

Yes, lots of optimists with plenty mishearing what was said. Musk said the 3 was have a Supercharger standard, and some took that as free for life access to the network.

In the interest of full disclosure, GM got that price as part of a deal to use other parts for LG Chem(some call the car the LG Chem Bolt). That battery price could be a loss leader for LG Chem in this case.

But yeah, battery costs are much lower than what a known Tesla skeptic stated.

 

sorry, i missed the answer there. or maybe i don't understand my own questions. can you be more concise?

 

Think: Amazon.

 

two completely different companies. amazon doesn't make squat

 

'Cept money.....

 

TSLA is absolutely not the right place to invest retirement savings.
I can think of only two good reasons to buy TSLA:
1. You are a gambler with extra unneeded money to burn, and want an alternative to lottery and Vegas.
2. You have extra unneeded money, and want to further the cause of renewable energy and electric cars.

I (and half a million others) chose a different route. I loaned Tesla $1,000 at 0% for indefinitely. I hope that will also someday allow me to order a Model 3 a little sooner.

This is a basic misunderstanding. The goal was and is to make more electric cars. Making them more affordable is just one of several means to that end. Making really cool expensive cars and raising the price for the premium paint colors are also a means to that end.

 

Some folks have no discretionary retirement income and TSLA and other individual stocks are unacceptable risks.

For a conservative investor at or nearing retirement, staying out of individual stocks is a reasonable strategy. For other investors, there is some room in a diversified portfolio for some risk. Putting a large percent of a retirement portfolio in individual stocks is probably a bad idea for most or all investors.

Even a diversified stock portfolio (such as broad indexed mutual funds) is like a gambling hall, but unlike the casinos, over the longer term the gambler wins. The at or near retiree may not have the long term, so if one is at or near retirement and can't handle the ups/down of an individual stock or highly weighted stock portfolio, it may be best to stay out.

For this purpose money would be better spent (and more fun) buying an actual electric car.

Are you waiting for the $35k SR?

 

He is in Germany, which doesn't mean he isn't waiting for the short range version, but they aren't yet getting any versions.